Fire weather outlook, August 23 through 28

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A large, slow-progressing upper level trough has brought copious moisture to much of the northern Rockies and Eastern Great Basin. Even some winter weather advisories with very a cool air mass over MT. Widespread fire weather threats have been minimal across much of the western US and will likely remain quiet through the weekend. Despite the lack of optimal large fire conditions, several areas will need to be monitored for developing potential into mid-week.

As the trough begins to lift northeast into the northern Plains and Canada early week, another final shortwave will rotate around the apex on Monday. This will bring a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms across portions of NV/UT. With lack of low level moisture and drying taking place over the weekend, a few isolated dry thunderstorms are possible. No strong winds are anticipated outside of thunderstorm outflows. The threat will diminish Tuesday evening.

A big story will be developing, with upper level ridging along the West Coast and subsequent drying conditions and warming temperatures early week. These conditions will aggravate already drought stricken regions and provide ripe conditions for fire growth for CA and northward into OR/WA. No widespread thunderstorms or wind events are anticipated. However, temperatures above 90F and widespread RHs <20% with some <10% for central OR and northern CA by Wednesday will promote extreme fire behavior.

Weather Highlights:

NV/UT/southern ID: Isolated dry thunderstorms Mon/Tues. Becoming hot and mid-week.

OR/WA: A few scattered showers on Sun, lingering into Mon. Becoming very hot and dry Tues and continuing into late week.

CA: Warm and dry Sat/Sun. Becoming very hot and critically dry by mid-week.

Chip

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