The Predictive Services section at the National Interagency Fire Center has issued their Wildland Fire Potential Outlook for October through January. The data represents the cumulative forecasts of the eleven Geographic Area Predictive Services Units and the National Predictive Services Unit.
If their predictions are accurate, California will be the only area with above normal wildfire activity.
Here are the highlights from their outlook.
October
- Above normal fire potential continues across some portions of northern, central and southern California. Long term drought coupled with increasing potential for offshore winds will keep potential elevated through October.
- Below normal fire potential is expected for central Texas as well as the southern Atlantic Coast.
- Elsewhere normal fire potential is expected as many areas transition to out of season conditions for the winter.
November
- Above normal fire potential will be alleviated in the north, leaving central and southern California as the only areas with continuing threats from dry fuels coupled with offshore flow.
- Below normal fire potential will expand to include an area stretching from Texas to the Atlantic Coast.
- Most other areas are out of season during November.
December and January
- The last remaining areas of above normal potential in California will transition to normal during December, leaving only normal to below normal conditions.
- Below normal fire potential will continue from Texas to the Atlantic Coast.
- Most other areas are out of season December through January.
