Wildfire potential, April through July

By July Montana, California, Colorado, and the states in the Northwest could see above normal wildfire activity

wildfire potential April, 2018

(Originally published at 8:55 p.m. MT April 1, 2018)

On April 1 the Predictive Services section at the National Interagency Fire Center issued their Wildland Fire Potential Outlook for March through June. The data represents the cumulative forecasts of the ten Geographic Area Predictive Services Units and the National Predictive Services Unit.

Below are:

  • The highlights of the NIFC narrative report for the next several months;
  • NIFC’s monthly graphical outlooks;
  • NOAA’s three-month temperature and precipitation forecasts; and
  • Drought Monitor.

“Wildfire activity will increase across portions of the nation in April. The central and southern Great Plains continue to experience significant wildland fire activity. While the activity observed is Above Normal, overall trends follow a traditional seasonal progression which keeps the fire potential elevated across these areas in early April but begins a westward shift further into the Southwest by month’s end. Periods of concern will be wind events coupled with low humidities that impact fire activity. Other areas of concern are the Florida Peninsula, eastern Georgia and South Carolina where drought conditions linger. Elevated potential exists across coastal portions of Southern California where drought continues and across portions of eastern Montana where very dry residual soil conditions exist. Pregreenup fire activity could elevate during westerly flow wind events.

“In May and June, the worsening drought conditions across the Southwest will lead to a continuance and expansion of the areas encompassed by an Above Normal potential for large fire activity. Fuels across the southern Great Basin and additional portions of California will become receptive as the vegetation dries and cures. Above Normal large fire potential across the Florida Peninsula in May will diminish by June as Sea/Land breeze convective activity begins to develop. Preexisting conditions across Alaska suggests a Normal potential for fire activity across the state’s interior.

“July marks the beginning of the core of the Western Fire Season. Concerns exist across the Interior West and California where a carryover of last year’s record grass crop coupled with the growth of an average grass crop this year will cure and become receptive. With a below average mountain snowpack observed from Oregon south to the border, an elevated potential may develop in the higher elevations by month’s end. Indicators suggest an early arrival of the Southwestern Monsoon. This should end the Southwestern season; however, the abundant convective activity will inevitably spread northward into the Great Basin and points north.”
wildfire potential May 2018 wildfire potential June 2018 wildfire potential July 2018

weather 90 day outlook

Drought Monitor
Drought Monitor

Author: Bill Gabbert

After working full time in wildland fire for 33 years, Bill Gabbert now writes about it from the Black Hills. Google+

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