Wildfire potential, March through June, 2013

The Predictive Services section at the National Interagency Fire Center has issued their Wildland Fire Potential Outlook for March through June, 2013. If the predictions are accurate the south part of Florida could be busy during the period, and activity in Minnesota, the southwest, and in parts of California should pick up later.

Wildfire potential, March 2013

Wildfire potential, April 2013

Wildfire potential, May-June 2013

Below is an excerpt from the NIFC report:

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“The March, April and May through June 2013 significant wildland fire potential forecasts included in this outlook represent the cumulative forecasts of the eleven Geographic Area Predictive Services Units and the National Predictive Services Unit.

March

  • February snow in the Plains and rain in the Southeast will keep fire potential normal to below normal, despite continuing drought conditions.
  • Very dry February for Florida will favor early start to season and increasing potential for significant fires.

April

  • Continuing rainfall deficits will keep significant fire potential above normal over most of Florida.
  • Despite February snows, soil moisture deficits in the Upper Midwest will increase significant fire potential as the snow cover dissipates.
  • Mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valleys will have below normal significant fire potential.

May and June

  • Dry fuels will drive above normal significant fire potential for central parts of the Southwest and mountains and foothills of southern California.
  • Above normal significant fire potential continues in Florida and on the lee side of Hawaii.
  • Significant fire potential will decrease to normal in the upper Midwest as greenup commences.”

 

Effects of sequestration on fire management

This ridiculous manufactured economic fiasco we’re calling sequestration has begun, on a week day when our elected representatives abandoned Washington, leaving their offices empty rather than actually do what we hire them to do, pass a budget, something they have not done in four years. Fire them all, I say!

We attempted to find out what the effects of sequestration will be within the wildland fire divisions of the federal land management agencies. Our usual sources told us either they don’t know, they are still figuring it out, or they passed the buck to bureaucrats in D.C. Here are some samples:

Bureau of Land Management

Donald Smurthwaite said, “Put simply, we’ll have fewer dollars in all of our programs. That will translate to fewer resources on the ground and in support positions.” When pressed for more details, he said they don’t have any numbers yet, and in fact they don’t even know what their funding level is beyond the end of the current Continuing Resolution, which expires near the end of the month.

National Park Service

Our usual excellent source in Boise told us Thursday that they would check and get back to us. We’re still waiting as of 6 p.m. on Friday.

U. S. Forest Service

The only information we could get was from the Department of Agriculture in D.C.:

The USFS is expecting a sequestration amount of $134 million. This will be $42 million below the calculated 10-year average of fire suppression costs for FY 2013. In addition, a reduction of Preparedness funds typically increases suppression costs since the initial attack success will be reduced, they said.

There will be “as many as 200,000 fewer acres treated for hazardous fuels”.

The USFS expects reduced operations at campgrounds, visitor information centers, and offices. This would occur during the peak use seasons in spring and summer. Thousands of private sector jobs in rural communities would be lost due to a reduction of recreation opportunities.

The agency would close up to 670 public developed recreation sites out of a total of 19,000 sites, such as campgrounds, picnic areas, and trailheads.

There would be a decrease of 35 sworn law enforcement officers, leaving 707 total officers to control drug trafficking organizations, prevent crime, and protect and serve the public. According to the agency, this would result in an increase in arson during the fire season, timber theft, and other natural resource crimes.

Timber volume sold would be reduced from 2,800 million board feet proposed for FY 2013, to 2,379 million board feet.

What’s next?

The USFS has already distributed warning letters to their employees about possible furloughs, so while some play down the effects of the across the board mindless budget cuts, the impacts could be real on real people. As could be the effects on the ability of the agencies to protect and manage our national treasures, the parks, forests, refuges, and other public lands. The timing is not great either, as the fire agencies are trying to hire seasonal firefighters and as several long term contracts for next-generation, very large, and legacy air tankers are about to be issued – or not issued. A lot of real people are waiting to see how this fiasco will affect them and their families.

We will stay on top of this and let you know when we hear more.

Sawyer drops tree on solar panels

Solar panels damaged by tree falling operation

A report has been released about a tree felling accident that occurred in Idaho on the Caribou-Targhee National Forest July 31, 2012. You can read the entire report, but briefly, a Lodgepole pine being felled was 18 to 24 inches in diameter and leaning toward an open area where the chain saw operator hoped it would land. When the back cut was complete the tree did not fall since the weight of the limbs was pulling it 90° off the desired direction of fall toward a pump house with solar panels on the roof. The sawyer continued cutting, going all the way through the holding wood. At that point, the weight of the limbs pulled the tree toward the pump house where it landed, crushing some of the solar panels.

The report identified several things that went well. In addition, here are the lessons learned:
Continue reading “Sawyer drops tree on solar panels”

Fire contractor interviewed on CNN about sequestration

Choleta Fire on CNN

Mark Masters, the CEO of Chloeta Fire, sent us some photos taken of a live interview they did with CNN Wednesday regarding the effects that sequestration may have on wildland fire management. Mr. Masters is a former rappeller, Fire Management Officer, dispatcher, and National Interagency Fire Center employee now running the fire contracting company in Oklahoma.

Choleta Fire on CNN Choleta Fire on CNN

 

Voluntary evacuations for fire near Riverside, California

UPDATE at 7:45 a.m. PT, March 2, 2013:

The Jurupa Fire is 80 percent contained and there has been no change in size, it is holding at 311 acres. Full containment is estimated for 8 p.m. this evening.

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UPDATE at 4 p.m. PT, March 1, 2013:

Riverside County FD reports the fire is 40 percent contained, has burned 311 acres, and the spread has been stopped. At 12:47 p.m. the temperature was 83 degrees, 5 percent RH, with northeast winds of 10-15 mph gusting to 25. Voluntary evacuations have been cancelled (if such a thing is possible).

The LA Times reports that fire officials said two structures burned, ignited by airborne embers. One was a residence and the other was an outbuilding. An RV also burned at another location after embers caused its awning to catch fire.

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UPDATE at 9:00 a.m. PT, March 1, 2013

Jurupa Fire
Jurupa Fire, Photo by Brandy Carlos

The Jurupa Fire near Riverside, California has burned 200 acres and is 30 percent contained, according to Jody Hagemann of the Riverside County Fire Department. Firefighters worked through the night on Thursday taking advantage of winds that were less strong than the breezy conditions that pushed the fire earlier.

The Press Enterprise reports that Rick Mullins, who lives about a quarter-mile from the fire, said his neighborhood experienced an ember shower that ignited the awning of his RV which spread to the trailer engulfing it in flames. The heat from that fire slightly singed his house but it was not seriously damaged.

On Friday there will be 20 engines, 1 dozer, 1 helicopter, and 8 hand crews assigned to the fire.

Jurupa Fire
Helicopter dropping on Jurupa Fire, Photo by Brandy Carlos

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Originally posted at 11:15 p.m. PT, February 28, 2013

Voluntary evacuations are taking place for the Jurupa fire near Riverside, California. At 11:15 p.m. local time on Thursday, the fire had burned 150 acres and was 20% contained according to the Riverside County Fire Department. Most of the fire is burning along both sides of the Santa Ana river bottom in areas that make access difficult for firefighters.

A travel trailer about a quarter-mile from the fire burned freely for several minutes until a helicopter dropped water on the blaze. It may have been caused by burning embers from the main fire.

The fire started at about 4:45 p.m. at Jurupa Regional Park at Rio Road and Calle Hermosa. At 7:30 p.m. one helicopter was still dropping water on the flames.

Photos of the fire.

Explaining forest management in 100 seconds

This animated video explains forest management, prescribed burning, fire return interval, and fuel management in 100 seconds.

The video is very well done and gets its point across quite efficiently, however it may be obvious to some that it was produced by an organization like the Oregon Forest Resources Institute which represents forest producers, small woodland owners, forest sector employees, academia, and the general public. The group appears to be similar to the Idaho Forest Products Commission that came up with the “Thin the Threat” bumper sticker last year.Thin the Threat bumper sticker

via @FireAviationNPS