More simultaneous large fires in the next 60 years

Wildfire simultaneity, or numerous large wildfires burning at the same time, will become at least twice as frequent by 2085, researchers are warning. A steadily increasing number of large wildland fires — and the number of acres burned — has occurred over the past few decades in the American West, but new research has found that simultaneous large fires will burn even more often. 

Future regional increases in simultaneous large Western USA wildfires” was published in the International Journal of Wildland Fire by the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research; it focused on wildfires that burned 1,000 acres or more between 1984 and 2015. Researchers  used multiple fire indices to model how simultaneity will likely change over the next 60 years. The study also measured the fires by Geographic Area Coordination Centers to see whether some geographic areas might see greater increases compared with others.

changes in simultaneity

Simultaneous wildfires were projected to increase in every area of the West. Not only were “bad years” projected to increase, but increases in simultaneity also led to more intense wildfires. Peak season for simultaneous wildfires was projected to become several weeks longer by the end of the century.

“The trend was particularly pronounced for the most severe wildfire seasons — those that currently occur only every 10 years on average,” the National Center for Atmospheric Research said. “In the future, such seasons may be expected to occur at least twice as often, and up to nearly five times per decade in the northern Rocky Mountains, which was the most affected region.”

seasonality of simultaneity
Projected seasonality of simultaneity

The findings point toward a risk in an already understaffed and under-resourced wildland firefighting force. Because crews are transferred across the nation, or sometimes even across nations, to battle fires depending on when an area’s season peaks, an increase in peak season length could mean major challenges for firefighters and fire managers.

“Because firefighting decisions about resource distribution, pre-positioning, and suppression strategies consider simultaneity as a factor, these results underscore the importance of potential changes in simultaneity for fire management decision-making,” the study says.

Steps can reportedly be taken to lessen the future risk of simultaneous wildfires, including thinning forests, conducting prescribed burns, and increasing numbers of firefighting crews and equipment. But that will depend on how long it will take to make those changes.

“The strain on resources created by simultaneous fires can affect the ability to conduct prescribed burns and pursue other preventative action,” the center said.

 

Long-term effects of Maui’s wildfires still unknown

The fires may have been controlled in Maui, but the fires that burned Lahaina will continue to affect the island in numerous ways.

Experts at the University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa explained the multiple long-term health and environmental risks during a recent webinar sponsored by the Hawaiʻi Public Health Institute. The webinar was focused specifically on addressing community concerns over remaining toxic chemicals and how people can protect themselves from exposure. There is also little to no precedent for the wildfire seen in Lahaina.

“While there have been large urban fires in other locations, such as Paradise, California, few have been related to hurricanes,” said Catherine Pirkle, an associate professor and global health researcher trained in epidemiology and health services.

Maui, August 2023

Another unusual aspect of the Maui wildfires is their proximity to nearshore tropical reefs. Researchers know very little about the health effects of exposure to compex chemical mixtures from wildfires like those in Maui. The contaminants released by the fire may enter the marine environment and could pose risks for swimmers and people who eat contaminated fish.

While the specific consequences of contamination aren’t known, researchers said the most at-risk populations for developing long-term health issues related to the fire are pregnant women and children, older or low-income people, those with pre-existing health conditions, and people at risk of work-related exposure.

The Hawaiʻi Department of Health and the EPA have already determined that particulate matter from the wildfires caused only low levels of air pollution. Additionally, volatile organic compounds were detected in only a small number of drinking water samples. Researchers offered health guidance to anyone planning to re-enter burned areas, saying they should wear an N95 mask that fits well, along with long sleeves and pants, socks, shoes, and gloves.

“Minimize disturbing the ash that has settled on the ground so that it does not enter the air or nearby waters,” the researchers said. “To reduce the take-home pathway of exposure, people who enter the impacted area should change their clothing before returning to their family members who are advised against entering the impacted area.”

The guidance follows the announcement by Maui Mayor Richard Bissen that he would be reopening all of West Maui — except the burned-out sections of Lahaina — to tourism on November 1.

Watch the University of Hawaiʻi’s full webinar here:

SoCal fire evacuates thousands

A wildfire fueled by gusty Santa Ana winds raced across rural land southeast of Los Angeles and has forced 4,000 people from their homes. The Highland Fire started not long after noon Monday in dry brushy hills near the community of Aguanga in Riverside County, about 60 miles south of Palm Springs. The Associated Press reported today that the fire has grown to 3½ square miles, or 2200 acres with zero containment.

Cal Fire reported that resources included 5 airtankers and 5 helicopters, along with 52 engine companies and 6 ground crews.

NBC Los Angeles reported that evacuation orders are in effect for thousands after the fire doubled in size overnight.

The brush fire started Monday in the Aguanga area of Riverside County, about 60 miles southwest of Palm Springs.

Cal Fire PIO map:

Cal Fire evacuation maps, Highland Fire
Cal Fire evacuation maps, Highland Fire. The fire doubled in size to more than 2,200 acres by Tuesday morning. Thousands of people were under evacuation orders, which were updated early Tuesday.

KTLA5 has video from yesterday:

At least 1,300 homes and 4,000 residents were under evacuation orders, which were still in effect this morning. The fire burned across a sparsely populated area that includes horse ranches and a large mobile home site; Cal Fire said this morning that only 15 or so homes were threatened.

Southern California Edison was reportedly looking into cutting power to nearly 150,000 customers in six counties — to prevent new starts from downed trees or wind-damaged electrical equipment — but fewer than 300 customers thus far were affected by power shutoffs.

The NWS issued a wind advisory for the region through Tuesday night, predicting winds of 15 to 25 mph and gusts up to 50 mph, particularly in the foothills and adjacent valleys.

These are the first major Santa Anas of the season; the strong, hot, dry, dust-bearing winds typically blow down to the coastal areas from inland desert regions in the fall. Santa Ana winds have fueled some of the largest and most devastating wildfires in California history.

* EVACUATION UPDATE *
An updated evacuation map from Cal Fire is [HERE].

November 15 deadline for IAWF conference workshops

IAWF 7th fire behavior + fuels conferenceCall for Workshops at Boise — deadline is November 15

SEND YOUR PROPOSALS NOW:  Conference workshops will be scheduled for Monday, April 15 and Wednesday, April 17 at the 7th International Fire Behavior + Fuels Conference in Boise, Idaho.

Workshops provide a forum for researchers and other professionals working in wildland fire to discuss and exchange interests in fire. Conference workshops are an opportunity for technology transfer, ensuring that scientific and technological developments are accessible to a wider range of users who can use and develop them.

IAWF banner

 

Conference organizers are particularly interested in hosting technology-related workshops if you or your organization are working with new technology used in wildland fire, or using technology in new ways in fire. Workshops that were particularly well-received at previous conferences included one focused on Soil Moisture and Wildfire Prediction and another on Fire and Fuels Management Tools.


There will be a nominal registration fee for conference participants who attend workshops in April; this fee will cover the cost of meeting rooms, refreshments, and audio-visual equipment. Instructors will not be required to pay a fee.

The IAWF is now encouraging proposals for workshops. Please include in your proposal:

    • Workshop title
    • Names, affiliations, and emails of instructors
    • Short bio for each instructor, including qualifications related to the topic
    • Proposed duration (2, 4, 6 or 8 hours)
    • One-paragraph description of workshop
    • Minimum/maximum number of participants (if applicable)
    • Any special facility needs (e.g. LCD projector, computer lab, wifi)

7TH INTERNATIONAL FIRE BEHAVIOR + FUELS CONFERENCEEvaluation criteria include overall quality and the fit with respect to the conference topic: Fuel, fire and smoke: evolving to meet our climate challenge. 

The IAWF is interested in workshops that connect research and management. The workshops can also be used to discuss administrative techniques, challenges, and strategies, and may include roundtable brainstorming.

Deadline for proposals is November 15. Previous conferences are listed [HERE].

APPLY HERE

Questions? Contact Mikel Robinson at
execdir@iawfonline.org or (406)625-7059.

Humans mimicking beavers to combat wildfires and restore wetlands

Researchers in Colorado have built hundreds of dam-like structures in hopes of mimicking a fraction of the success the state’s beavers have had throughout history. Ashley Hom with the U.S. Forest Service co-leads Colorado’s largest beaver-based restoration project — along with many partners. In just two years, this team built 316 beaver mimicry structures, about half of which were BDAs, or beaver dam analogues — manmade structures that imitate beaver dams. Many of them were constructed by volunteers, according to a story by Julie Cleveland.

These BDAs are built using wooden fenceposts and willows that act as a low-cost and low-maintenance structure to protect areas from wildfire while maintaining or improving water quality.

The loss of keystone beaver populations has caused a negative impact on watersheds throughout the western United States. Dams that beavers create slow the flow of spring run-off while raising the water table to keep the landscape wet. Without beavers and their dams, streambanks have eroded, causing snowmelt and run-off to drain too quickly from the landscape.

Beaver dam on Baugh Creek near Hailey, Idaho. USFWS photo
Beaver dam on Baugh Creek near Hailey, Idaho. USFWS photo

“As beavers create and maintain wetlands, the outcomes are vast,” Cleveland wrote. “A lack of beavers has resulted in an increased intensity of drought and wildfires in the West as fires spread rapidly across parched landscapes. Wetlands act as natural fuelbreaks, giving firefighters a chance for containment.”

The effectiveness of beavers against wildfires has been seen in real-time. The 2018 Sharp Flats Fire burned more than 60,000 acres in Idaho, but seemingly left one area untouched.

Loading beavers for transport
Idaho Fish and Game officers load a beaver into a wooden box before he’s loaded on a plane and dropped into the Idaho backcountry. IDFG photo

Nearly 70 years beforehand, Idaho Fish and Game had rounded up and relocated beavers, sometimes by parachute, throughout the state, including the Baugh Creek area.

Beavers in wooden boxes drop from a plane into the Frank Church Wilderness to start a new life.
Beavers in wooden boxes drop from a plane into the Frank Church Wilderness to start a new life. IDFG photo

The Sharp Flats Fire burned all of the land around Baugh Creek, but the beavers’ dams and the wetland they created were left unburned.

The contrast was so stark that researchers at Boise State University and Utah State University teamed up with NASA to start building tools to measure the benefits of beaver reintroduction in other areas of the country.


Post-burn image of the Sharps Flat burn, image by NASA.
Post-burn image of the Sharp Flats burn, image by NASA.

Watch the below video to see what researchers are paying attention to after beavers make their way back to wetlands — beaver rewilding as measured by NASA:


Alert reader Tom Jones sent over some photos he took of the beaver habitat on the B&B Fire in Oregon.

“We were with the NW Oregon type 2 team in September 2003,” wrote Tom. “Robert Alvarado was the Human Resource Specialist (HRSP) and I was the FBAN. Robert liked to go out on the line and talk with the crews to see how they were doing. I went to the line every day, so he would go with me. Each morning after briefing he would ask me, ‘What kind of adventure are we going to have today?’ The last two photos are of me and Robert at Marion Lake.”

Beavers' Fireline, B&B Complex 15. September 2003. Tom Jones photo.
Beavers’ fireline, B&B Complex 15. September 2003. Tom Jones photo.
Beaver Swamp Burned, B&B Complex, September 2003. Photo by Tom Jones.
Beaver swamp burned, B&B Complex, September 2003. Photo by Tom Jones.
Robert Alvarado and BeaverLine, 2003 photo by Tom Jones.
Robert Alvarado and BeaverLine, 2003 photo by Tom Jones.
Fireline put in by beavers on the B&B Complex in Oregon. 2003 photo by Tom Jones.
Fireline put in by beavers on the B&B Complex in Oregon. 2003 photo by Tom Jones.
Robert Alvarado at Marion Lake on the B&B Complex in Oregon. 2003 photo by Tom Jones.
Robert Alvarado at Marion Lake on the B&B Complex in Oregon. 2003 photo by Tom Jones.
FBAN Tom Jones with the NWOregon type 2 team in September 2003 on the B&B Complex. Photo by Robert Alvarado.
FBAN Tom Jones with the NW Oregon type 2 team in September 2003 on the B&B Complex. Photo by Robert Alvarado. (I didn’t know there were crocodiles in Marion Lake, did you?)

from Wikipedia:  The B&B Complex was a linked pair of wildfires that together burned 90,769 acres (367.33 km2) in  Oregon in the summer of 2003. The complex began as two separate fires, the Bear Butte Fire and the Booth Fire; the two fires were reported on the same day and eventually burned together, forming a single fire area that stretched along the crest of the Cascade Mountains between Mt. Jefferson and Mt. Washington. On the western side of the Cascades, the fire consumed mostly Douglas-fir and western hemlock. On the eastern side of the mountains, the fire burned mostly Ponderosa pine, lodgepole, and jack pine. Most of the burned area was on USFS land, including 40,419 acres (163.57 km2) within the Mt. Jefferson Wilderness. The fire also burned forest land on the Warm Springs Indian Reservation and small areas of state and private land. Firefighters worked on the fires for 34 days.

THANKS, Tom, for the great photos and another
piece of Beaver history in the Beaver State!
 ~ Kelly Andersson