Lightning strikes to increase 50% by end of century

As if we don’t have enough to worry about with climate change already, a study found that lightning strikes in the United States will likely increase by nearly 50 percent by the end of the century as the world gets warmer and wetter.

Here is an excerpt from an AP article:

[Researchers] concluded that for every degree Fahrenheit the world warms in the future, lightning strikes will go up nearly 7 percent. That’s 12 percent for every degree Celsius.

Because scientists forecast that the world may get about 7 degrees warmer (4 degrees Celsius) by the end of the century, based on current carbon dioxide emission trends, that comes to a 50 percent increase in lightning strikes, said David Romps. He’s the atmospheric scientist at the University of California Berkeley who led the study.

“When you used to have two lightning strikes, now you’ll have three,” Romps said. “It’s a substantial increase.”

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Rising temperature trend in California, January through August

California, average temperature, January through August

California, average temperature, January through August

The NOAA data above showing the trend in temperature in California during the first eight months of the year, is impressive. The average temperature this year shattered the record. It illustrates that you should not get excited about the weather on one day, or one season, or even one decade. There is a great deal of variability. The long-term trend has the big picture.

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Report: trees are dying from no obvious cause in the Rocky Mountains

A report issued by the Union of Concern Scientists concluded that in some areas of the Rocky Mountains trees are dying from no obvious cause:

Besides increases in tree-killing insects and wildfires, scientists have found a rise in “background mortality”—the rate at which trees die from no obvious cause. For example, tree mortality in relatively undisturbed old-growth forests across the West has doubled in recent decades, with no compensating increase in the number of tree seedlings. And tree mortality has been highest in recent years.

But, the report goes on to suggest that hotter and drier conditions across the West are driving these changes. There are other factors impacting the health of trees the document says, including, tree-killing insects and more wildfires.

Notable are the effects on three “iconic tree species”, as you can see in this excerpt:

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Whitebark pines (Pinus albicaulis)—a high-elevation species with unique ecological importance in the Northern Rockies— have faced both blister rust and epidemic-level infestations of mountain pine beetles, part of the recent West-wide outbreak. Earlier outbreaks of mountain pine beetles at high elevations were shorter and less severe, because winter temperatures were typically cold enough to kill the beetles. However, the sustained higher temperatures of recent winters have allowed the beetles to overwinter and thrive. Today whitebark pines are in catastrophic decline throughout their range in western North America. Mortality in some areas has been 90 percent to 100 percent. This die-off has led the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service to determine that they are in such risk of extinction that they qualify for listing under the Endangered Species Act.

Quaking aspens (Populus tremuloides), an emblematic species of the Rocky Mountains, have seen abrupt and extensive die-off across large areas of their range, in response to extreme heat and dryness at the beginning of this century. From 2000 to 2010, some 1.3 million acres in the Southern Rockies saw significant aspen decline, and regeneration of new aspens has been much lower than normal.

Piñon pines (Pinus edulis) are a foundation species of the forests that flank the Southern Rockies and many other areas in the Southwest. In 2002–2003, these areas suffered a mass die-off of piñon pines triggered by severe drought and exceptional heat. Sites in Mesa Verde National Park in Colorado, near Los Alamos in northern New Mexico, and near Flagstaff, AZ, lost some 90 percent of their piñon pines. One team of scientists described the mass piñon pine die-off as “one of the most extensively documented examples of a sudden ecosystem crash in response to climate change.”  ”

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Wildfire briefing, September 10, 2014

Time-lapse video of Meadow Fire

time-lapse video of the Meadow Fire

Screen grab from the NPS time-lapse video of the Meadow Fire.

The National Park Service has posted a very cool time-lapse video of the early hours of the expansion of the Meadow Fire when it grew from 19 acres to over 700. More information about the Meadow Fire.

“Send the elevator back down”

Mentoring young firefighters who have the potential to become future leaders is one of the more important responsibilities of seasoned wildland firefighters. Of course the same principle applies in other fields as well. The award winning actor Kevin Spacey has been doing this for years through his Kevin Spacey Foundation and by leading workshops to cultivate emerging artists in the performing arts.

In an interview with NBCNews he was asked what motivated him to get involved in mentoring young artists. He said:

Jack Lemmon – who was my mentor – passed along his philosophy of “sending the elevator back down” and so I am continuing to do exactly that through the work of my Foundation.

Happy Camp Fire Complex achieves Megafire status

The huge fire on the Klamath National Forest continues to work its way across the landscape of northwest California. The Incident Management Team reports it has now burned 105,194 acres, crossing what we call the unofficial threshold of 100,000 acres to obtain the Megafire label. The Team is calling it 30 percent contained.

No residences had been damaged or destroyed on the fire until Monday, when two burned in the Scott River Road area. One of those belonged to 75-year old Nancy Hood who has been continuously staffing a fire lookout for 56 years on the Klamath National Forest. A fund has been established to help Ms. Wood in her time of need. We posted more information about the effort earlier today.

Smokejumpers warn about link between climate change and wildfires

A group of seven Montana smokejumpers have written an opinion piece that was published in the Missoulian.

Below are some excerpts:

…Scientists say that climate change has implications for wildfire danger. We believe them. Since the 1980s, Montana’s wildfire season increased by two months while average global temperatures have steadily trended upward. Climate researcher Steve Running has summarized the data this way: “Since 1986, longer, warmer summers have resulted in a fourfold increase of major wildfires and a sixfold increase in the area of forest burned, compared to the period from 1970 to 1986.” – Science, Vol. 13:927 (2006).

Drought caused by warming temperatures exacerbated the recent pine beetle infestation, which is 10 times larger than any previously recorded. Millions of dead trees provide more fuel for fires and create more risk for those on the front lines.

[…]

We know that many Montanans share our concerns about rising fire danger. While aggressive intervention in wildfires will always be needed, we also need prevention strategies – and that means dealing with climate change. Preventing climate change isn’t possible, but limiting climate change is.

Montana has abundant clean energy resources such as wind and solar power that can provide significant statewide economic benefits. We need prevention strategies such as the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s proposal to decrease carbon pollution from the largest point sources – coal-fired power plants. We can create good-paying jobs in clean energy. We can protect our climate and our wildlands, and we can save lives, property and jobs in doing so.

Thanks and a hat tip go out to Mike.

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Wildfire briefing, June 2, 2014

Rescued wolf pups to find home

Wolf pup at Alaska Zoo

The five abandoned wolf pups that were rescued by firefighters on the Funny River Fire on March 27 are doing well and will be adopted by the Minnesota Zoo, located south of Minneapolis-St. Paul in Apple Valley, Minnesota. The pups will remain at the Alaska Zoo until veterinarians are certain the animals are old and healthy enough for transport. When found last week, they weighed about 2.5 pounds apiece and suffered from dehydration and punctures from porcupine quills.

Thirty five applicants awarded funding for their fire research projects

The Joint Fire Science Program announced that 35 applicants have received funding for their proposed fire-related research. The topics include smoke, fuels treatment effectiveness, fire behavior and effects, bats and fire, people and fire, and more.

Fire Training in Pennsylvania

New York Times obituary for Robert Sallee

typical smokejumpers Mann Gulch Fire Ford Trimotor aircaft

Typical smokejumpers and their equipment around the time of the Mann Gulch Fire, with their Ford Trimotor aircaft.

On May 29 we wrote about the death of Robert Sallee, the last survivor of the 1949 Mann Gulch Fire, and later we linked to some rare photos of the incident.

Surprisingly, the New York Times on May 31 published an obituary of Mr. Sallee. John N. Maclean pointed it out to us, saying that he learned some things from the article. After the death of his father, Norman Maclean, John helped to edit the almost finished Young Men and Fire, the book his father wrote about the fire. John later wrote several books of his own about wildland fires, the latest being The Esperanza Fire.

Below is another photo related to the fire. It was taken in Mann Gulch by Alan Thomas, who was the editor at the University of Chicago Press who worked on Young Men and Fire with the Macleans.

Mann Gulch,

Mann Gulch. Photo by Alan Thomas of the University of Chicago Press.

Colorado Fire Chief talks about how climate change has affected his job — and his life

The video below features Elk Creek, Colorado fire chief Bill McLaughlin, whose department fought the Lower North Fork Fire in 2012 that killed three residents and burned 4,140 acres. “Climate change is very real,” says McLaughlin. “It’s changed my entire life.”

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Docu-series: “Years of Living Dangerously”

Years of living dangerously

Arnold Schwarzenegger talks with a hotshot crew. Showtime photo.

Showtime is producing a docu-series about climate change, called Years of Living Dangerously. They describe it like this:

This groundbreaking documentary event series explores the human impact of climate change. From the damage wrought by Hurricane Sandy to the upheaval caused by drought in the Middle East, YEARS OF LIVING DANGEROUSLY combines the blockbuster storytelling styles of top Hollywood movie makers with the reporting expertise of Hollywood’s brightest stars and today’s most respected journalists.

The first episode, hosted by Harrison Ford, is available on YouTube, below.

The second, titled End of the Woods will air Sunday, April 20 at 10 p.m. ET and features host Arnold Schwarzenegger, also a producer of the series, who embeds with a hotshot crew. Some people say Mr. Schwarzenegger was very supportive of firefighters when he served as the “Governator” of California. About his time as governor, he said, “I went to the front lines and evacuation centers, talking to firefighters, and became very passionate about it,” explaining why he chose the topic.

(I’m sure some of our readers can identify the hotshot crew in the photo above.)

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