Oregon’s Flat Fire near Oak Flat and Agness takes off

A new fire that ignited over the weekend in southwest Oregon is threatening the community of Agness, Oregon, on the Rogue River west of Grants Pass. The fire quickly grew to more than 8,000 acres despite USFS initial attack efforts.

Flat Fire aerial image, Rogue River--Siskiyou photo

Oregon Public Broadcasting (OPB) reported that the Flat Fire is growing fast on the Rogue River–Siskiyou National Forest, between Gold Beach on Oregon’s south coast and Grants Pass on I-5. Weather conditions over the last couple days contributed to the quick spread, and an IMT took over from local agencies yesterday. The fire is burning just a couple miles from Agness, near the confluence of the Rogue River and the Illinois River.

The Rogue River flows 215 miles from Crater Lake to the Pacific Ocean. The 84-mile Congressionally-designated “National Wild and Scenic” portion of the Rogue begins 7 miles west of Grants Pass and ends 11 miles before its mouth at Gold Beach.

Bridge over the Rogue
Bridge over the Rogue

Jefferson Public Radio reported the fire grew more than 8,000 acres in under three days. Nearly 400 firefighters were working the fire, which threatens about 40 structures in and around the small community of Agness. On Monday, crews were building fireline to prevent further spread.

There’s a reason (or 4) that GoogleMaps will show you this “preferred route” and the “short route” between Grants Pass and Gold Beach; it’s really skatey even in the summertime, and LOTS of people get lost or stranded on Bear Camp Road. Please DO NOT interfere with firefighter vehicle traffic up there because you wanto “go get a look at the helicopters” or something … interfering with firefighting operations, whether you’re flying a drone or driving a pickup, will land you in jail, and some sheriffs are touchier about this than others.

road alternates between Agness and Grants Pass, Oregon
Road alternates between Agness and Grants Pass, Oregon

It was planned yesterday that evening operations would include night crews on the northwest corner of the fire, if conditions permit, which would allow crews to burn out vegetation between fire crews and the active fire.

The fire recently was reported at just over 8,200 acres, with a total 378 personnel assigned to the incident. Resources at that time included 16 engines, 13 crews, 2 dozers, 7 helicopters, and 2 water tenders.

Closures: At least one closure order is in place for the safety of the public. Please be careful when driving in the area and do not drive toward the fire if you don’t live there or work there.

Restrictions: Fire restrictions are in place on the Rogue River–Siskiyou National Forest. The Forest has several closures and public use restrictions on the wild section of the Rogue River [HERE] but they’re mostly in pdf format and thus may not be accessible for everyone. Your best bet for mostly current info is inciweb. (Note the correct URL for this website has changed several times over the years, but for right now it is inciweb.nwcg.gov)– and even though the site warns you to redirect to inciweb.wildfire.gov, THAT DOES NOT WORK. The Flat Fire incident page doesn’t yet have any MAPS, but in the meantime here’s one of the general size of it, northeast of Gold Beach:

Flat Fire map
Flat Fire map

The Flat Fire is now the largest wildfire burning in Oregon and more crews and other resources are expected in the next few days; current management is under Albrecht’s Northwest Incident Management Team 6.

An evacuation shelter has been established at Gold Beach High School for anyone displaced by the fire and needing assistance. As of Monday, there were no evacuations ordered. Residents can sign up for emergency notifications with the Curry County Emergency Management Department.


There’s a small collection of outstanding photos online from the Coos Forest Protective Association. We expect more in the coming days.


KPIC-TV News reported that fire officials said the Flat Fire is burning in historic burn scars from both the 2002 Biscuit Fire and the 2018 Klondike Fire. Firefighters are working around numeroous standing dead trees and dense vegetation within these burn scars, and the landscape in this part of the Pacific Northwest is characterized by very steep terrain and extremely limited access options. Fire managers are deliberately considering firefighting tactics to keep crews safe, while protecting surrounding communities and infrastructure.

More resources arrived this morning, and their numbers will be boosted over the next several days. Crews are strengthening and building new firelines, and fire managers will assign aviation resources as conditions and visibility allow. Watch for updates from the RxFire Info
Rogue Valley Interagency Community Center.

As of this morning there were no official closure orders for the area, but people are STRONGLY ADVISED TO STAY OUT. This is a rugged part of Oregon’s coastal mountains where people often get stranded or disoriented or lost, and local fire and law enforcement people don’t have a lot of spare time right now, with a fast-growing fire of this size, to come look for you. Stay out, and avoid getting in the way of firefighting operations. The rugged, mountainous terrain makes it more difficult for firefighting crews to access the area, BUT the Lost Coast Outpost reports that firefighters’ goal is “full suppression” on a rapidly growing fire in extreme summer temperatures.

Nationally, there are now eight fires being managed under a strategy other than full suppression. For updates on the Flat Fire, you can email 2023.flat.or@firenet.gov

No one was evacuated as of yesterday morning, Curry County Commissioner Brad Alcorn told the Lost Coast Outpost. But because of the steep and harsh terrain and hazardous weather conditions, Alcorn said he expects the fire will grow.

“There are a handful of residences up there, probably 14 to 15 homes, and the sheriff has contacted everyone,” Alcorn told the Outpost. “They’re in communication, so if there is a situation where we need to do an immediate evacuation we have a mechanism in place to make sure that happens safely.”

The Flat Fire was first reported at about 6 p.m. Saturday, Alcorn told the community in a video briefing on Sunday. It’s burning near Oak Flat, not far southwest of Agness, according to a Rogue River-Siskiyou National Forest news release on Sunday. The Forest Service said two days ago that about 40 structures were threatened. The fire is making its biggest gains in the Lawson Creek drainage; it’s on both sides of the Illinois River, burning in the 2002 Biscuit Fire scar.

The fire was mapped at 5,477 acres via an infrared flight two days ago, said Doug Epperson, the PIO for Northwest Incident Management Team 6, the Type 2 IMT that took over fire operations at 6 a.m. yesterday. He said the fire is burning in new regrowth that occurred after the 2002 Biscuit Fire.
“There’s been a lot of growth since then,” he added.

Air Quality Index between Gold Beach and Grants Pass for the Flat Fire, July 2023
Air Quality Index between Gold Beach and Grants Pass for the Flat Fire, July 2023

A red flag warning was in effect through this morning, and those weather conditions will likely contribute to additional fire spread. An air quality advisory was also issued for parts of Curry and Josephine counties; air quality could be diminished because of smoke from the fire. The National Preparedness Level is still at 2 and the national sit report lists just 16 large fires today.

How one Forest had 120 fires in the last two years but only burned a total of 70 acres

Standing tall and making a difference on the Rogue River–Siskiyou National Forest

Merv George and Dan Quinones
Merv George (L), Forest Supervisor, Rogue River–Siskiyou National Forest, and Dan Quinones, Fire Management Officer, Rogue River–Siskiyou National Forest. Photo courtesy of Smokejumper magazine.

By Murry Taylor

The big man leaned across the table, folded his hands, thought for a moment, then said that he wanted to make one thing clear right from the beginning: What we did on our forest this summer was partly due to the specific character of our geography, our climate, our roads, our fuels, and about mitigating future risks. All new fires during fire season received a full-suppression, aggressive initial attack approach. The big man who made this statement was Merv George, Jr., Supervisor of the Rogue River–Siskiyou National Forest (RRSNF) in southwest Oregon. And the What-we-did Merv was referring to was to initial attack 60 fires and keep the total acres burned at a little over fifty for the year. Note that in the summer of 2020, they had the same number of fires and only burned 20 acres. That is not counting the Slater Fire that came onto their forest from the Klamath N.F. and burned way up into Oregon. No fault there given it was unstoppable right from the beginning. Sitting not far from Merv was Dan Quinones (RAC ’02)- a former Redmond smokejumper, and the FMO on the RR–Siskiyou. Note, I’m not using quotation marks with these statements unless I can remember exactly what was said. Words are important to these two men. I want to make sure that’s understood.

Given the heartbreaking news of Western fires during the 2021 fire season, it was a breath of fresh air when Chuck Sheley (Editor Smokejumper magazine) and I met with Merv and Dan last October. Many of us, including a lot of Smokejumper magazine readers, have been pushing for years to get the Forest Service back to rapid and aggressive initial attack. Chuck has led the charge and now that effort (in some areas) seems to be paying off. Bill Derr’s (USFS Ret.-Law Enforcement) email thread includes several retired Forest Supervisors, FMO’s, Type 1 IC’s, Operations Chiefs, Deputy Chiefs, and Air Resource Officers. The National Wildfire Institute based in Fort Jones, California has been steadily at it as well. Add in former Forest Service Deputy Chief, Michael Rains’ “The Call to Action,” and James Petersen’s “First Put Out the Fire,” and you have major voices calling for an immediate change in how the Forest Service deals with fire these days. As you would expect, among these people it’s fully acknowledged that fire plays an important role in forest health. But, given the longer fire seasons in the West, the massive forest fuel build-up due to less logging, and the critical low fuel moisture due to climate change, it’s clear that, for the time being, we need to put out all fires during fire season as quickly as possible. It’s also understood that some fires will (even with the best effort) escape containment and go big. So, for those concerned about getting fire back on the landscape, it’s likely that plenty of acres will end up in that category anyway.

That said, you can imagine how excited we were hearing from the Rogue-River Siskiyou N.F. about their IA success in the summers of 2020 and 2021. More on that later but now, some history.

In early summer 2019, Oregon Governor Kate Brown established The Oregon Wildfire Response Council (OWRC). It seemed a good idea. I felt that a state like Oregon might make real progress on the mega-fire issue plaguing the West. First, as a relatively small state, they are more politically agile—certainly more than California. Secondly, the timber industry has had–and still has–a strong influence in Oregon politics. And third, both private industry and the Oregon Department of Forestry (with its emphasis on strong initial attack) have historically leaned on the Forest Service to put stronger emphasis on more aggressive fire suppression.

So, I did some research and contacted Ken Cummings, Regional Manager at Hancock Natural Resources Group in Central Point, Oregon. He was on the OWR Council and put me in touch with Committee Chairman, Matt Donegan and concerned citizen, Guy McMahon in Brookings. Kate Brown’s office wrote back and put me in touch with an aide to Senator Jeff Merkley. Within a month Jim Klump (RDD ’64 – former Redding smokejumper and FMO on the Plumas N.F.) and I went to Salem to attend an Oregon Wildfire Response Council meeting. Senator Merkley’s aid was there. After speaking with both the aide and Matt Donegan about what might be done locally, I decided to contact my two local Forest Supervisors, Merv George Jr. on the Rogue River-Siskiyou and Rachel Smith on the Klamath.

Wrangle Fire
Wrangle Fire Siskiyou #282, Aug. 2021. USFS photo by Grand Ronde Engine 113. Rogue River–Siskiyou National Forest.

When Merv George Jr. agreed to our first meeting (that was in June), I took a half-dozen copies of Smokejumper magazine to give to him. These were the ones in which Chuck beat the “strong initial attack and keep them small” drum hard. Early in the meeting, not long after I’d brought up the subject of strong IA, Merv leaned forward and told me straight-faced, you’re looking at one of the most aggressive IA Forest Supervisors you’ve ever met. He went on to explain that his Hoopa Native American heritage has helped him understand the difference between “good” fires and the devastation that “bad” fires can cause.  He also understands the need to put fire back in the woods and, more importantly, the right times to put it there. He went on to explain that he raised his hand for the RRSNF position to try to “fix” the problem. The “problem” being the large fires of late on the forest—the Chetco Bar, (192,000 acres), the Klondike (175,258 acres), and the Taylor (53,000 acres) to mention three. That got me thinking that there could be a big success story if the Rogue River–Siskiyou could showcase that, with the right preparedness and IA effort, you could put out most all fires.

Then, while serving as Duzel Rock Fire Lookout (for Cal Fire) this summer, I got a call from Dan Quinones. That was late July. At that point, they had had 48 total fires, 31 lightning and 17 man-caused. Total acres burned, less than ten. Then he said the other thing (when added to Merv’s comment about being an aggressive IA Forest Supervisor) that made me want to write this article: “Our crews are going around with smiles on their faces. We’re having fun.” I thought to myself, this is it. This is what most old-time firedogs have been saying all along. If you encourage your crews to get out there and go after fires and put them out small, they will naturally become excited and connect with the passion of good firefighting.

Smoke near Winkle Bar airstrip
Smoke near Winkle Bar airstrip discovered by Siskiyou Rappellers, Aug. 2021, Rogue River–Siskiyou National Forest. USFS photo.

Such passion comes directly from successful initial attack. It comes from those times when a crew hits a fire, works into the night, works until they feel tired and hungry and miserable but keep going, digging deep and finding that better part of themselves. That part they instinctively hoped was there. Then, once they catch their fire and walk off the mountain in the morning they feel like kings, and nothing can ever take that feeling away. It’s the tough times that build the kind of character that make great wildland firefighters. The tough times are transforming, and they are empowering. I think this point is not widely understood by many current wildland fire managers. Time after time I’ve heard from various crews, “Murry, they’re ruining firefighting. They’re holding us in camp too much. They’re not letting us do our job.”

I heard it again this past summer and not just from crews but from a Central California Type 1 Incident Commander, his Ops Chief and Plans Chief. Their take: Too many times effective work could have been done. Too many times crews and related resources were held back by the local forest. The IC told me straight out, “It’s this safety thing. The safety card is played too much. Too many times it’s too steep and it’s too rough. He went on to point out that by backing off and slacking off, these fires go way big and expose crews to thousands of miles of road trips—often when exhausted–thousands of helicopter rides into unimproved helispots and tens of thousands of miles of fireline with burning trees and snags.”

Continue reading “How one Forest had 120 fires in the last two years but only burned a total of 70 acres”

The cost of saving money on wildfire suppression

Myrtle Fire
Myrtle Fire north of Hot Springs, SD, July 19, 2012 Photo by Bill Gabbert

Maintaining a wildfire suppression infrastructure is expensive, but as the saying goes, “you can pay me now or pay me later”. Wildfires are going to occur, regardless of the number of fire suppression resources that are funded by the government. An adequate number of firefighters on the ground and in the air can implement a prescription for keeping new fires from becoming megafires:

Rapid initial attack with overwhelming force using both ground and air resources, arriving within the first 10 to 30 minutes when possible.

The current paradigm of cascading federal budget cuts for fire suppression has reduced the capability of putting out wildfires while they are small. An aggressive initial attack on an emerging fire may cost $10,000, or $50,000, or even $75,000. But when the fire is put out quickly, the firefighters become available to attack the next fire with overwhelming force, rather than being tied up on a huge fire that may take six weeks to wrap up.

And that huge fire may cost $30 million to $50 million to suppress.

Suppression costs of seven fires in 2012:

  • Mustang Complex, Idaho, $38 million
  • High Park, Colorado, $38 million
  • Chips, California, $54 million
  • Wenatchee Complex, Washington, $32 million
  • Bagley, California, $37 million
  • North Pass, California, $30 million
  • Trinity Ridge, Idaho, $41 million

But the suppression costs can pale in comparison to the property damage for an urban interface fire. In 2012 insurance companies in Colorado paid an estimated $450 million for damage caused by two wildfires, primarily for structures that burned.

Estimated costs to insurers for property damage on wildfires:

  • 2012, Waldo Canyon Fire, Colorado, $353 million
  • 2012 High Park Fire, Colorado, $97 million
  • 2010, Fourmile Canyon Fire, Colorado, $224 million
  • 2007, Witch Fire, California, $1.142 billion
  • 2003, Old Fire, California, $1.141 billion
  • 2003, Cedar Fire, California, $1.240 billion
  • 1991, Oakland Hills Fire, California, $2.687 billion

In 2012, according to the Colorado Division of Fire Prevention and Control, wildfires in the state destroyed more than 648 structures, killed six people, burned more than 384,000 acres and caused at least $538 million in property losses

Fighting fire on the cheap can be very expensive in lost lives, megafires, and property damage. Investing money up front to reduce the number of megafires can save money. The current strategy of fewer federal firefighters and large air tankers is not working. In the decade of the 1990s the average size of a wildfire in the lower 49 states was 30 acres. In the three years of the present decade the average size is 93 acres. In 2012 almost half of the time when wildland firefighters requested an air tanker to help slow down a wildfire, the call went unanswered because none were available.

We need to restore the initial attack capability that we had in the 1990s. More firefighters and large air tankers can help to keep fires small. In 2002 the federal government had 44 large air tankers on exclusive use contracts. By 2012 the fleet had atrophied to nine. Some wildfire experts recommend that we need 30, 40, or even 50. The U.S. Forest Service has been trying to contract for approximately seven additional “next generation” air tankers, bringing the total up to 16. The newer aircraft would be turbine-powered, be able to cruise at 300 knots (345 mph), and preferably have a capacity of 3,000 to 5,000 gallons of retardant. The USFS issued the solicitation 1 year, 3 months, and 2 days ago, but no contracts have been awarded.

The USFS-funded RAND air tanker study found that a 3,000-gallon air tanker costs approximately $7.1 million a year without the costs of retardant. In fiscal year 2010 the USFS spent $10.3 million on retardant. Using these figures, a fleet of 30 large air tankers for a year would cost about the same as the property damage and suppression of one large urban interface fire, the 2010 Fourmile Canyon Fire near Boulder, Colorado — or about one-fifth of the property damage on the 2003 Cedar fire in California.

Firefighters on the ground and in the air will never put out every fire while they are small, and air tankers alone can’t do it either. Aircraft don’t put out fires — at best they can slow them down temporarily, allowing firefighters on the ground to stop the spread. Going forward we need a complete palette of resources, a tool box of complementary weapons, each with their niche, working together.