Wildfire potential, April through July

The Predictive Services section at the National Interagency Fire Center has issued their Wildland Fire Potential Outlook for April through July. The data represents the cumulative forecasts of the eleven Geographic Area Predictive Services Units and the National Predictive Services Unit.

If their predictions are accurate, In April the fire potential should be above normal in the upper midwest, southern Alaska, northern great plains, and southern California.

Here are the highlights from their outlook.

April

wildfire outlook

  • Above normal wildland fire potential across the north central U.S. will expand.
  • Above normal wildland fire potential will develop across portions of Southern California.
  • Above normal wildland fire potential will become prevalent across southern Alaska.
  • Below normal wildland fire potential will continue along the coastal plain of the Southeast as well as Puerto Rico.

May

wildfire outlook

  • Wildland fire potential across the north central portion of the U.S. will return to normal in May
  • Above normal wildland fire potential will expand across into northern California, southwestern Arizona, and much of Hawaii.
  • Above normal wildland fire potential will persist across most of southern Alaska.
  • Below normal fire potential will develop on the southern Rockies Front Range and persist in Puerto Rico.

June & July

wildfire outlook

  • Above normal wildland fire potential will expand to across the West Coast, part of the northern Rockies and Great Basin, and continue for most of Hawaii.
  • Wildland fire potential will return to normal for southern Alaska.
  • Below normal wildland fire potential will spread across the Tennessee and Lower Mississippi Valleys.

And from NOAA and the USDA:

Drought Monitor

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Wildfire potential, March through June, 2015

The Predictive Services section at the National Interagency Fire Center has issued their Wildland Fire Potential Outlook for March through June. The data represents the cumulative forecasts of the eleven Geographic Area Predictive Services Units and the National Predictive Services Unit.

If their predictions are accurate, fire potential should be increasing in the upper midwest and mid-south, it is expected to be normal in the west, and higher than normal in Alaska and Hawaii.

Here are the highlights from their outlook.

March

March  wildfire potential

  • Above normal significant wildland fire potential exists across much of the Hawaiian Islands.
  • Below normal significant wildland fire potential is expected for the Southeast from Texas to the mid-Atlantic as well as Puerto Rico.
  • Normal significant wildland fire potential elsewhere.

April

April wildfire potential

  • Above normal significant wildland fire potential will develop throughout the Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes.
  • Above normal significant wildland fire potential will continue across much of Hawaii.
  • Below normal significant wildland fire potential will continue along the coastal plain of the Southeast and through central Texas as well as Puerto Rico.

May through June

May June  wildfire potential

  • Above normal significant wildland fire potential will develop across portions of Southern California. Above normal significant wildland fire potential will continue across much of Hawaii.
  • Above normal significant wildland fire potential will reduce to normal across the Mississippi Valley and the Great Lakes.
  • Below normal significant wildland fire potential will develop across the Southwest and continue on the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast coasts.
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Wildfire potential, February through May

The Predictive Services section at the National Interagency Fire Center has issued their Wildland Fire Potential Outlook for February through May. The data represents the cumulative forecasts of the eleven Geographic Area Predictive Services Units and the National Predictive Services Unit.

If their predictions are accurate, the midwest should experience higher than normal wildfire activity from March through May, while most of the southeast should be slower than normal through May.

Here are the highlights from their outlook.

February

February wildfire potential

  • Above normal significant wildland fire potential exists across much of the Hawaiian Islands.
  • Below normal significant wildland fire potential is expected for the Southeast from Texas to the mid-Atlantic.
  • Normal significant wildland fire potential elsewhere.

March

March wildfire potential

  • Above normal significant wildland fire potential will develop across the Mississippi Valley.
  • Above normal significant wildland fire potential will continue across much of Hawaii.
    Below normal significant wildland fire potential will along the coastal plain of the Southeast.
  • Normal significant wildland fire potential elsewhere.

April through May

April-May wildfire potential

  • Above normal significant wildland fire potential will continue across the Mississippi Valley and expand eastward to the Great Lakes and Ohio and Tennessee Valley states.
  • Above normal significant wildland fire potential will continue across much of Hawaii.
  • Below normal significant wildland fire potential will continue for the central Texas and the MidAtlantic and Southeast coasts.

As a bonus, here is NOAA’s monthly drought outlook.

February Drought OutlookAnd, the Drought Monitor for the 48 contiguous states:

Drought Monitor January 27, 2015

 

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Wildfire potential, December through March

The Predictive Services section at the National Interagency Fire Center has issued their Wildland Fire Potential Outlook for December through March. The data represents the cumulative forecasts of the eleven Geographic Area Predictive Services Units and the National Predictive Services Unit.

If their predictions are accurate, southern California will have above normal wildfire activity in December, but no other areas are expected to be in that category during the next four months.

Here are the highlights from their outlook.

December, 2014

December wildfire potential

  • Long-term precipitation deficits and a risk off offshore winds will keep fire potential elevated through mid-December in southern California, returning to near normal wildland fire potential for the remainder of December.
  • Below normal fire potential is expected for most of the South.

January, 2015

January wildfire potential

  • No areas of above normal fire potential are expected for this period.
  • Below normal fire potential will continue for most of the South and Mid-Atlantic regions.

February – March, 2015

February March wildfire potential

  • No areas of above normal fire potential are expected for this period.
  • Below normal fire potential will continue across central and southern Texas, Florida, and southern Georgia.

UPDATE, December 4, 2014: the drought monitor released today.

Drought monitor

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Wildfire potential, November through February

The Predictive Services section at the National Interagency Fire Center has issued their Wildland Fire Potential Outlook for October through January. The data represents the cumulative forecasts of the eleven Geographic Area Predictive Services Units and the National Predictive Services Unit.

If their predictions are accurate, southern California will have above normal wildfire activity through December, along with Minnesota in November, while the rest of the United States will have normal or below normal activity.

Here are the highlights from their outlook.

November

November fire weather

  • Above normal fire potential continues across portions of central and southern California. Long  term drought and a potential for offshore winds will keep potential elevated through November.
  • Most of Minnesota along with portions of Iowa and Wisconsin will have elevated fire potential for November. This is not expected to persist into December.
  • Below normal fire potential will continue across the Gulf Coast states.

December

December fire weather

  • Fire potential will continue to diminish in California, leaving coastal areas of southern California with above normal significant fire potential.
  • Below normal fire potential will expand across most of the South and Mid-Atlantic regions.

January-February

January February wildfire weather

  • No areas of above normal fire potential are expected for this period.
  • Below normal fire potential will continue across central and southern Texas, Florida, and southern Georgia.
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Wildfire potential, October through January

The Predictive Services section at the National Interagency Fire Center has issued their Wildland Fire Potential Outlook for October through January. The data represents the cumulative forecasts of the eleven Geographic Area Predictive Services Units and the National Predictive Services Unit.

If their predictions are accurate, California will be the only area with above normal wildfire activity.

Here are the highlights from their outlook.

October

September wildfire outlook

  • Above normal fire potential continues across some portions of northern, central and southern California. Long term drought coupled with increasing potential for offshore winds will keep potential elevated through October.
  • Below normal fire potential is expected for central Texas as well as the southern Atlantic Coast.
  • Elsewhere normal fire potential is expected as many areas transition to out of season conditions for the winter.

November

November wildfire outlook

  • Above normal fire potential will be alleviated in the north, leaving central and southern California as the only areas with continuing threats from dry fuels coupled with offshore flow.
  • Below normal fire potential will expand to include an area stretching from Texas to the Atlantic Coast.
  • Most other areas are out of season during November.

December and January

December January  wildfire outlook

  • The last remaining areas of above normal potential in California will transition to normal during December, leaving only normal to below normal conditions.
  • Below normal fire potential will continue from Texas to the Atlantic Coast.
  • Most other areas are out of season December through January.
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