Wildfire potential, July through October, 2014

The Predictive Services section at the National Interagency Fire Center has issued their Wildland Fire Potential Outlook for July through October, 2014. The data represents the cumulative forecasts of the eleven Geographic Area Predictive Services Units and the National Predictive Services Unit. If their predictions are correct, the wildfire season will be busier than usual in the states of California, Washington, Oregon, Idaho, Nevada, and Arizona.

July

July wildfire potential

  • Above normal fire potential will persist over much of California, the Northwest and the Great Basin. Southern Arizona and southwestern New Mexico will return to normal in July.
  • Below normal fire potential will continue for much of the south central and southeast U.S. Below normal potential will also become prevalent across portions of the Northern Rockies and Rocky Mountains.

August

August wildfire potential

  • Above normal fire potential will continue over most of California, Nevada, Oregon, Washington and Idaho. Above normal conditions could possibly develop across the New England states and Four Corners area if short-term weather develops that would support fire outbreaks.
  • Below normal fire potential will continue over northern Idaho, Montana and portions of Wyoming, Colorado and South Dakota. Portions of Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Tennessee, Louisiana and Mississippi will also continue to see below normal fire potential.

September through October

September October wildfire potential

  • Above normal fire potential will remain over Southern and Central California. Northern California, Oregon and Washington will return to normal during this period.
  • Below normal fire potential will return across much of the Southeastern U.S. except for gulf coastal areas and most of the Coastal Atlantic states.
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Wildfire potential, June through September

On June 1 the Predictive Services section at the National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC) issued their Wildland Fire Potential Outlook for June through September, 2014.

If the prediction is correct, the Rocky Mountains will get a pass this summer while the highest wildfire potential will be in:

  • Alaska,
  • the extreme western states of California, Oregon, Washington, Nevada, and Arizona,
  • and later in the summer spreading to the upper Midwest and New England.

And we also have a prediction from the National Weather Service and the latest edition of the Drought Monitor.

From NIFC:

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“The May, June, and July through August 2014 significant wildland fire potential forecasts included in this outlook represent the cumulative forecasts of the eleven Geographic Area Predictive Services Units and the National Predictive Services Unit.

June

  • Above normal fire potential will persist over much of California, southern Arizona, and southwestern New Mexico. Central Alaska and the southeast interior will also experience above normal fire potential. Portions of Northern California, Oregon and Nevada will increase to above normal fire potential as well.
  • Below normal fire potential will continue for much of the eastern half of the U.S., with the notable exception of the Great Lakes, Northeast and south Atlantic states.

Wildfire Potential,  June, 2014

July
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Wildfire potential, May through August, 2014

The Predictive Services section at the National Interagency Fire Center has issued their Wildland Fire Potential Outlook for May through August, 2014.

And below that is the latest edition of the Drought Monitor, released today.

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“The May, June, and July through August 2014 significant wildland fire potential forecasts included in this outlook represent the cumulative forecasts of the eleven Geographic Area Predictive Services Units and the National Predictive Services Unit.

May
- Above normal fire potential will be over much of California, southern Arizona, and southwestern New Mexico. Must of southern Alaska will have above normal fire potential.
- Below normal fire potential will continue for most of the Ohio, Tennessee, and lower Mississippi Valleys, the central Gulf Coast; eastern Texas and eastern Oklahoma.

May 2014 wildfire outlook

June
- Above normal fire potential will expand to include northern California, Nevada, and much of Oregon. Most of Alaska will continue to see above normal significant fire potential.
- Below normal fire potential will continue over the lower and mid-Mississippi, Tennessee and Ohio Valleys.

June 2014 wildfire outlook
July through August
- Above normal fire potential will remain in most of California, northern Nevada, and central Oregon. Above normal fire potential will expand into eastern Oregon, southwestern Idaho, and the Great Lakes region.
- Southeastern Arizona, southwestern New Mexico and Alaska will return to normal fire potential.
- Below normal fire potential will cover most of the northern Rockies.”

July-August 2014 wildfire outlook****

Drought monitor May 1, 2014

 

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Wildfire potential, April – July, 2014

The Predictive Services section at the National Interagency Fire Center has issued their Wildland Fire Potential Outlook for April through July, 2014. The data represents the cumulative forecasts of the eleven Geographic Area Predictive Services Units and the National Predictive Services Unit. If their prediction is correct there will be increasing wildfire potential during the period in California, Arizona, New Mexico, and Oregon.

April – Above normal significant fire potential will continue over portions of southern California; the central Plains from southeastern Colorado to Iowa and northern Missouri; and southwestern and south central Alaska. – Below normal significant fire potential will develop over most of the Ohio, Tennessee, and lower Mississippi Valleys, the central Gulf Coast; eastern Texas and eastern Oklahoma. The Canadian border region from northern Minnesota to Maine will also have below normal fire potential.

Wildfire Outlook, April, 2014

May – Above normal significant fire potential will expand over portions of southern, central and northern California; and over most of western Alaska. – Above normal fire potential will increase in the Southwest and decrease over the central Plains. – Below normal fire potential will continue over the lower and mid-Mississippi, Tennessee and Ohio Valleys.

Wildfire Outlook, May, 2014

June through July – Above normal significant fire potential will expand over most of northern California, central Oregon and northwestern Nevada; over the far southern Gre

Wildfire Outlook, June-July, 2014

Yesterday the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center released their monthly drought outlook for April 30, 2014:

Monthly drought outlook, April 30, 2014The latest Drought Monitor, released March 27, is below:

Drought Monitor March 25, 2014

 

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Wildfire potential, February – May, 2014

The Predictive Services section at the National Interagency Fire Center has issued their Wildland Fire Potential Outlook for February through May, 2014. If their prediction is correct there will be elevated wildfire potential in most of the mountainous areas in California and below normal potential in the southeast. Here is their summary:

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Outlook Period – February, March, and April through May 2014

Executive Summary

The February, March, and April through May 2014 significant wildland fire potential forecasts included in this outlook represent the cumulative forecasts of the eleven Geographic Area Predictive Services Units and the National Predictive Services Unit.

February

  • Above normal significant fire potential will continue over most of the southern and central California mountains and foothills, including the San Francisco Bay area.
  • Most of the southeastern U.S. will remain in below normal significant fire potential.

Wildfire outlook February 2014

March

  • Above normal significant fire potential will continue over most of the California mountains and foothills.
  • Below normal significant fire potential will continue from central Texas to the central Appalachians.

Wildfire outlook March 2014

April through May

  • Above normal significant fire potential will continue over most of the California mountains and foothills.
  • Below normal significant fire potential expected across the central and eastern Gulf states and the Tennessee Valley.”

Wildfire outlook April-May 2014****

Drought Monitor 2-4-2014

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Wildfire potential January through April, 2014

The Predictive Services section at the National Interagency Fire Center has issued their Wildland Fire Potential Outlook for January through April, 2014. If their prediction is correct there could be elevated wildfire potential in the San Francisco bay area in January and also in New Mexico and Texas in March and April. Here is their summary:

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“January

  • Below normal significant wildland fire potential will for most of the southeastern U.S. except for far southern Florida and deep South Texas.
  • Above normal significant wildland fire potential will affect the Bay Area of Northern California.

Wildfire Outlook, January, 2014

February

  • The Southeast will continue to see below normal significant wildland fire potential along the coastal regions from Virginia to southeastern Texas.
  • There are no areas of above normal fire potential for February.

Wildfire Outlook, February, 2014

March through April

  • Part of the Southeast will continue to see below normal significant wildland fire potential across eastern Texas and Oklahoma, the lower and mid-Mississippi, and the Tennessee Valley.
  • Above normal significant wildland fire potential will develop across eastern New Mexico and West Texas in March and April.”

Wildfire Outlook, March-April 2014(end of NIFC’s outlook)

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On December 31 the Predictive Services group at the North Zone Coordination Center in Redding, California issued a “Seasonal Outlook” for northern California and Hawaii, which is valid for the months of February through April. In a nutshell, they forecast normal “weather and fuel/fire potential” during the period.

Another Predictive Services group that apparently prefers to remain anonymous has issued a “Monthly/Seasonal Outlook” for January through April, 2014 for California, but does not say when it was prepared or issued. It includes a strange map of a portion of California that is difficult to interpret since it does not have any cities, roads, or counties, but it does have some unidentified boundaries of some sort. While it is not clear, the document appears to be an outlook for the entire state. If so, then the northern California report above is a duplication, except that it also included Hawaii.

As we have stated before, technical reports and outlooks that are decision support tools need to indicate the date it was issued, and which office and personnel analyzed and compiled the information. The one for Northern California does, and even lists the names of the subject matter experts who worked on the report. Good job, Basil Newmerzhycky and John Snook.

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