Outlook for wildfire potential through October, 2015

The Predictive Services section at the National Interagency Fire Center has issued their Wildland Fire Potential Outlook for July through October. The data represents the cumulative forecasts of the ten Geographic Area Predictive Services Units and the National Predictive Services Unit.

If their forecasts are accurate, the three west coast states and the western portions of Idaho, Nevada, and Montana will have above normal wildfire activity into October.

Here are the highlights from their outlook.

****

July

Wildfire Outlook, July, 2015

– Higher than usual temperatures; minimal summer precipitation; and already dry fuels will combine to continue above normal potential across most of the pacific coast states, as well as the northern Rocky Mountains and northern and western Great Basin.

– Fuels that were exposed to drying earlier than usual as well as hot and dry conditions throughout May and June have led to above normal potential throughout Alaska.

– Abundant spring and early summer precipitation and moist fuels will alleviate much of the fire concern for the Rocky Mountains, Southwest, and areas east of the Mississippi.

August

Wildfire Outlook, August, 2015

– Much of the above normal area from July will linger into August, with the exception of some of northern California. Above normal conditions will spread slightly westward to encompass more of the Great Basin.

– Most of the areas experiencing below normal potential will return to a more normal condition, with only some of the Central Rockies and Ohio Valley below normal.

September through October

Wildfire Outlook, September October, 2015

– Almost all of the above normal potential will return to normal through this period, leaving only far southern California as above normal.

– Below normal fall conditions will develop across inland portions of the southeast.

****

UPDATE: And, as a bonus, here is the Drought Monitor that was released July 2, 2015. Portions of California, Nevada, and Oregon are in Extreme or Exceptional Drought. Nine of the eleven western states have areas in Severe Drought or worse.

Drought Monitor June 30, 2015

Share

Wildfire potential, June through September

The Predictive Services section at the National Interagency Fire Center has issued their Wildland Fire Potential Outlook for June through September. The data represents the cumulative forecasts of the eleven Geographic Area Predictive Services Units and the National Predictive Services Unit.

If their predictions are accurate, portions of California, Washington, Oregon, and Arizona will have expanding areas of above normal wildfire potential in June and July

Here are the highlights from their outlook.

June

wildfire June outlook

  • Moisture across the West has reduced the Above Normal areas to central California and southwestern Arizona.
  • Drier areas in the Northern Rockies, Northwest and the Southeast will begin to transition to Above Normal.
  • Above Normal conditions with continue in Alaska’s eastern Interior and most of Hawaii.
  • Below Normal fire potential covers much of the central U.S. after prolonged heavy rains.

July

wildfire July outlook

  • Above Normal fire potential will spread into the Northwest, the Northern Rockies and the Great Basin.
  • Above Normal fire potential will continue across central and southern California, southwestern Arizona, and spread into the Nevada Sierra Front. Hawaii will also remain in Above Normal potential.
  • Above Normal fire potential will expand through Georgia and the Carolinas while most of the central U.S. and Alaska will return to normal seasonal conditions.

August and September

wildfire August September outlook

  • Above Normal fire potential will continue across the Northwest, the Northern Rockies, the Great Basin and parts of central and southern California, and Hawaii.

And from NOAA and the USDA:

Drought Monitor US, May 26, 2015

 

Drought outlook, June, 2015

Share

Wildfire potential, April through July

The Predictive Services section at the National Interagency Fire Center has issued their Wildland Fire Potential Outlook for April through July. The data represents the cumulative forecasts of the eleven Geographic Area Predictive Services Units and the National Predictive Services Unit.

If their predictions are accurate, In April the fire potential should be above normal in the upper midwest, southern Alaska, northern great plains, and southern California.

Here are the highlights from their outlook.

April

wildfire outlook

  • Above normal wildland fire potential across the north central U.S. will expand.
  • Above normal wildland fire potential will develop across portions of Southern California.
  • Above normal wildland fire potential will become prevalent across southern Alaska.
  • Below normal wildland fire potential will continue along the coastal plain of the Southeast as well as Puerto Rico.

May

wildfire outlook

  • Wildland fire potential across the north central portion of the U.S. will return to normal in May
  • Above normal wildland fire potential will expand across into northern California, southwestern Arizona, and much of Hawaii.
  • Above normal wildland fire potential will persist across most of southern Alaska.
  • Below normal fire potential will develop on the southern Rockies Front Range and persist in Puerto Rico.

June & July

wildfire outlook

  • Above normal wildland fire potential will expand to across the West Coast, part of the northern Rockies and Great Basin, and continue for most of Hawaii.
  • Wildland fire potential will return to normal for southern Alaska.
  • Below normal wildland fire potential will spread across the Tennessee and Lower Mississippi Valleys.

And from NOAA and the USDA:

Drought Monitor

Share

Wildfire potential, March through June, 2015

The Predictive Services section at the National Interagency Fire Center has issued their Wildland Fire Potential Outlook for March through June. The data represents the cumulative forecasts of the eleven Geographic Area Predictive Services Units and the National Predictive Services Unit.

If their predictions are accurate, fire potential should be increasing in the upper midwest and mid-south, it is expected to be normal in the west, and higher than normal in Alaska and Hawaii.

Here are the highlights from their outlook.

March

March  wildfire potential

  • Above normal significant wildland fire potential exists across much of the Hawaiian Islands.
  • Below normal significant wildland fire potential is expected for the Southeast from Texas to the mid-Atlantic as well as Puerto Rico.
  • Normal significant wildland fire potential elsewhere.

April

April wildfire potential

  • Above normal significant wildland fire potential will develop throughout the Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes.
  • Above normal significant wildland fire potential will continue across much of Hawaii.
  • Below normal significant wildland fire potential will continue along the coastal plain of the Southeast and through central Texas as well as Puerto Rico.

May through June

May June  wildfire potential

  • Above normal significant wildland fire potential will develop across portions of Southern California. Above normal significant wildland fire potential will continue across much of Hawaii.
  • Above normal significant wildland fire potential will reduce to normal across the Mississippi Valley and the Great Lakes.
  • Below normal significant wildland fire potential will develop across the Southwest and continue on the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast coasts.
Share

Wildfire potential, February through May

The Predictive Services section at the National Interagency Fire Center has issued their Wildland Fire Potential Outlook for February through May. The data represents the cumulative forecasts of the eleven Geographic Area Predictive Services Units and the National Predictive Services Unit.

If their predictions are accurate, the midwest should experience higher than normal wildfire activity from March through May, while most of the southeast should be slower than normal through May.

Here are the highlights from their outlook.

February

February wildfire potential

  • Above normal significant wildland fire potential exists across much of the Hawaiian Islands.
  • Below normal significant wildland fire potential is expected for the Southeast from Texas to the mid-Atlantic.
  • Normal significant wildland fire potential elsewhere.

March

March wildfire potential

  • Above normal significant wildland fire potential will develop across the Mississippi Valley.
  • Above normal significant wildland fire potential will continue across much of Hawaii.
    Below normal significant wildland fire potential will along the coastal plain of the Southeast.
  • Normal significant wildland fire potential elsewhere.

April through May

April-May wildfire potential

  • Above normal significant wildland fire potential will continue across the Mississippi Valley and expand eastward to the Great Lakes and Ohio and Tennessee Valley states.
  • Above normal significant wildland fire potential will continue across much of Hawaii.
  • Below normal significant wildland fire potential will continue for the central Texas and the MidAtlantic and Southeast coasts.

As a bonus, here is NOAA’s monthly drought outlook.

February Drought OutlookAnd, the Drought Monitor for the 48 contiguous states:

Drought Monitor January 27, 2015

 

Share

Wildfire potential, December through March

The Predictive Services section at the National Interagency Fire Center has issued their Wildland Fire Potential Outlook for December through March. The data represents the cumulative forecasts of the eleven Geographic Area Predictive Services Units and the National Predictive Services Unit.

If their predictions are accurate, southern California will have above normal wildfire activity in December, but no other areas are expected to be in that category during the next four months.

Here are the highlights from their outlook.

December, 2014

December wildfire potential

  • Long-term precipitation deficits and a risk off offshore winds will keep fire potential elevated through mid-December in southern California, returning to near normal wildland fire potential for the remainder of December.
  • Below normal fire potential is expected for most of the South.

January, 2015

January wildfire potential

  • No areas of above normal fire potential are expected for this period.
  • Below normal fire potential will continue for most of the South and Mid-Atlantic regions.

February – March, 2015

February March wildfire potential

  • No areas of above normal fire potential are expected for this period.
  • Below normal fire potential will continue across central and southern Texas, Florida, and southern Georgia.

UPDATE, December 4, 2014: the drought monitor released today.

Drought monitor

Share