Wildfire potential, April – July, 2014

The Predictive Services section at the National Interagency Fire Center has issued their Wildland Fire Potential Outlook for April through July, 2014. The data represents the cumulative forecasts of the eleven Geographic Area Predictive Services Units and the National Predictive Services Unit. If their prediction is correct there will be increasing wildfire potential during the period in California, Arizona, New Mexico, and Oregon.

April – Above normal significant fire potential will continue over portions of southern California; the central Plains from southeastern Colorado to Iowa and northern Missouri; and southwestern and south central Alaska. – Below normal significant fire potential will develop over most of the Ohio, Tennessee, and lower Mississippi Valleys, the central Gulf Coast; eastern Texas and eastern Oklahoma. The Canadian border region from northern Minnesota to Maine will also have below normal fire potential.

Wildfire Outlook, April, 2014

May – Above normal significant fire potential will expand over portions of southern, central and northern California; and over most of western Alaska. – Above normal fire potential will increase in the Southwest and decrease over the central Plains. – Below normal fire potential will continue over the lower and mid-Mississippi, Tennessee and Ohio Valleys.

Wildfire Outlook, May, 2014

June through July – Above normal significant fire potential will expand over most of northern California, central Oregon and northwestern Nevada; over the far southern Gre

Wildfire Outlook, June-July, 2014

Yesterday the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center released their monthly drought outlook for April 30, 2014:

Monthly drought outlook, April 30, 2014The latest Drought Monitor, released March 27, is below:

Drought Monitor March 25, 2014

 

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Wildfire potential, February – May, 2014

The Predictive Services section at the National Interagency Fire Center has issued their Wildland Fire Potential Outlook for February through May, 2014. If their prediction is correct there will be elevated wildfire potential in most of the mountainous areas in California and below normal potential in the southeast. Here is their summary:

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Outlook Period – February, March, and April through May 2014

Executive Summary

The February, March, and April through May 2014 significant wildland fire potential forecasts included in this outlook represent the cumulative forecasts of the eleven Geographic Area Predictive Services Units and the National Predictive Services Unit.

February

  • Above normal significant fire potential will continue over most of the southern and central California mountains and foothills, including the San Francisco Bay area.
  • Most of the southeastern U.S. will remain in below normal significant fire potential.

Wildfire outlook February 2014

March

  • Above normal significant fire potential will continue over most of the California mountains and foothills.
  • Below normal significant fire potential will continue from central Texas to the central Appalachians.

Wildfire outlook March 2014

April through May

  • Above normal significant fire potential will continue over most of the California mountains and foothills.
  • Below normal significant fire potential expected across the central and eastern Gulf states and the Tennessee Valley.”

Wildfire outlook April-May 2014****

Drought Monitor 2-4-2014

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Wildfire potential January through April, 2014

The Predictive Services section at the National Interagency Fire Center has issued their Wildland Fire Potential Outlook for January through April, 2014. If their prediction is correct there could be elevated wildfire potential in the San Francisco bay area in January and also in New Mexico and Texas in March and April. Here is their summary:

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“January

  • Below normal significant wildland fire potential will for most of the southeastern U.S. except for far southern Florida and deep South Texas.
  • Above normal significant wildland fire potential will affect the Bay Area of Northern California.

Wildfire Outlook, January, 2014

February

  • The Southeast will continue to see below normal significant wildland fire potential along the coastal regions from Virginia to southeastern Texas.
  • There are no areas of above normal fire potential for February.

Wildfire Outlook, February, 2014

March through April

  • Part of the Southeast will continue to see below normal significant wildland fire potential across eastern Texas and Oklahoma, the lower and mid-Mississippi, and the Tennessee Valley.
  • Above normal significant wildland fire potential will develop across eastern New Mexico and West Texas in March and April.”

Wildfire Outlook, March-April 2014(end of NIFC’s outlook)

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On December 31 the Predictive Services group at the North Zone Coordination Center in Redding, California issued a “Seasonal Outlook” for northern California and Hawaii, which is valid for the months of February through April. In a nutshell, they forecast normal “weather and fuel/fire potential” during the period.

Another Predictive Services group that apparently prefers to remain anonymous has issued a “Monthly/Seasonal Outlook” for January through April, 2014 for California, but does not say when it was prepared or issued. It includes a strange map of a portion of California that is difficult to interpret since it does not have any cities, roads, or counties, but it does have some unidentified boundaries of some sort. While it is not clear, the document appears to be an outlook for the entire state. If so, then the northern California report above is a duplication, except that it also included Hawaii.

As we have stated before, technical reports and outlooks that are decision support tools need to indicate the date it was issued, and which office and personnel analyzed and compiled the information. The one for Northern California does, and even lists the names of the subject matter experts who worked on the report. Good job, Basil Newmerzhycky and John Snook.

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Wildfire potential through March, 2014

The Predictive Services section at the National Interagency Fire Center has issued their Wildland Fire Potential Outlook for December, 2013 through March, 2014. If their prediction is correct there is nothing extraordinary ahead, except for reduced wildfire potential over much of the south. Here is their summary:

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The December 2013, January 2014 and February through March 2014, significant wildland fire potential forecasts included in this outlook represent the cumulative forecasts of the eleven Geographic Area Predictive Services Units and the National Predictive Services Unit.Wildfire outlook December

December

  • Below normal fire potential will continue from southern Texas to the Ohio Valley and the southern Appalachians. Short-term increases in fire activity are possible along the lower Atlantic Coast.
  • There are no areas of above normal significant wildland fire potential for December.

Wildfire outlook January

January

  • The Southeast will continue to see below normal significant wildland fire potential from East Texas to the Ohio Valley and the southern Appalachians.
  • There are short-term fire concerns for Florida.
  • There are no areas of above normal fire potential for December.

February through March

Wildfire outlook February March

  • Below normal fire potential will develop from the central Gulf to the Mid-Atlantic states.
  • No areas of above normal significant wildland fire potential are expected for February or March.
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Wildfire potential through February, 2014

After skipping the October Wildland Fire Potential Outlook because of the government shutdown, today the Predictive Services section at the National Interagency Fire Center issued their Wildland Fire Potential Outlook for November through February. If their prediction is correct there is nothing extraordinary ahead, except for above normal potential in southern California in November. Here is their summary:

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“The November and December 2013, and January through February, 2014, significant wildland fire potential forecasts included in this outlook represent the cumulative forecasts of the eleven Geographic Area Predictive Services Units and the National Predictive Services Unit.

Wildfire potential November 2013

November

  • Significant wildland fire potential remains above normal for Central and South Coast of southern California but will return to normal by the end of the month.
  • Below normal fire potential will continue from central Texas to the Ohio Valley and the central Appalachians. Short-term increases in fire activity are possible along the lower Atlantic Coast.

Wildfire potential December 2013

December

  • The Southeast will continue to see below normal significant wildland fire potential from central Texas through the Appalachians, except possible short-term increases in Florida.
  • There are no areas of above normal fire potential for December.

Wildfire potential Jan-Feb 2014

January through February

  • Below normal fire potential will continue from eastern Texas to the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys.
  • No areas of above normal significant wildland fire potential are expected for January or February.”
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Wildfire potential, September through December, 2013

The Predictive Services section at the National Interagency Fire Center issued their Wildland Fire Potential Outlook for September through December, 2013. If their prediction is correct the world of wildland fire will be slower than normal everywhere in the United States except for California. Here is a summary:

wildfire Outlook Sept 2013

September

  • Significant fire potential remains above normal for a large portion California due to long term drought and high fire danger indices. This will be exacerbated by the possibility of off-shore flow events developing.
  • The remainder of the western U.S. will return to normal September conditions and begin to transition into regular fall fire activity levels.
  • In the western Great Lakes states conditions will increase to normal and some fall fire activity should be expected
  • The southeast will continue to see periodic moisture and a below normal fall fire season, except possible short term increases across the southern plains.

wildfire Outlook Oct 2013
October

  • Most of California will return to normal during October as fall develops in earnest. This will be late month for portions of northern California
  • Southwestern California will continue to see above normal significant fire potential through the month and will also have a continued threat of off-shore flow events.
  • Below normal fire potential will continue across portions of the eastern U.S.

Widfire Outlook Nov-Dec 2013
November and December

  • The remainder of California will return to normal out of season significant fire potential during this period.
  • Below normal fire potential will continue across portions of the eastern U.S
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