Wildfire potential, April through July

By July Montana, California, Colorado, and the states in the Northwest could see above normal wildfire activity

(Originally published at 8:55 p.m. MT April 1, 2018)

On April 1 the Predictive Services section at the National Interagency Fire Center issued their Wildland Fire Potential Outlook for March through June. The data represents the cumulative forecasts of the ten Geographic Area Predictive Services Units and the National Predictive Services Unit.

Below are:

  • The highlights of the NIFC narrative report for the next several months;
  • NIFC’s monthly graphical outlooks;
  • NOAA’s three-month temperature and precipitation forecasts; and
  • Drought Monitor.

“Wildfire activity will increase across portions of the nation in April. The central and southern Great Plains continue to experience significant wildland fire activity. While the activity observed is Above Normal, overall trends follow a traditional seasonal progression which keeps the fire potential elevated across these areas in early April but begins a westward shift further into the Southwest by month’s end. Periods of concern will be wind events coupled with low humidities that impact fire activity. Other areas of concern are the Florida Peninsula, eastern Georgia and South Carolina where drought conditions linger. Elevated potential exists across coastal portions of Southern California where drought continues and across portions of eastern Montana where very dry residual soil conditions exist. Pregreenup fire activity could elevate during westerly flow wind events.

“In May and June, the worsening drought conditions across the Southwest will lead to a continuance and expansion of the areas encompassed by an Above Normal potential for large fire activity. Fuels across the southern Great Basin and additional portions of California will become receptive as the vegetation dries and cures. Above Normal large fire potential across the Florida Peninsula in May will diminish by June as Sea/Land breeze convective activity begins to develop. Preexisting conditions across Alaska suggests a Normal potential for fire activity across the state’s interior.

“July marks the beginning of the core of the Western Fire Season. Concerns exist across the Interior West and California where a carryover of last year’s record grass crop coupled with the growth of an average grass crop this year will cure and become receptive. With a below average mountain snowpack observed from Oregon south to the border, an elevated potential may develop in the higher elevations by month’s end. Indicators suggest an early arrival of the Southwestern Monsoon. This should end the Southwestern season; however, the abundant convective activity will inevitably spread northward into the Great Basin and points north.”
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Drought Monitor

Wildfire potential, March through June

In Southern California, the Southern Plains, and portions of the Southwest, wildfire potential should remain above normal through June.

Above: wildfire potential for March, 2018, issued March 1, 2018.

(Originally published at 5:10 p.m. MT March 1, 2018)

On March 1 the Predictive Services section at the National Interagency Fire Center issued their Wildland Fire Potential Outlook for March through June. The data represents the cumulative forecasts of the ten Geographic Area Predictive Services Units and the National Predictive Services Unit.

If the prediction is accurate, the wildfire potential in Southern California, the Southern Plains, and portions of the Southwest will remain above normal for the entire four-month period.

Below are:

  • The highlights of the NIFC narrative report for the next several months;
  • NIFC’s monthly graphical outlooks;
  • NOAA’s three-month temperature and precipitation forecasts; and
  • Drought Monitor.

“Wildfire activity is likely to increase in March in a manner typical to most years beginning in the central through southern Great Plains and the Southwest where preexisting drought conditions and fuel loadings have promoted an environment favorable for Above Normal significant wildland fire potential entering spring. While some improvement is expected across East Texas and Arkansas, areas to the west will likely see a continuance or an intensification of the Severe Drought conditions. Periods of special concern will be highlighted by passing weather systems that create periodic strong, westerly, downsloping winds. During such events, ignitions will be able to quickly become significant fires. Elevated large fire potential is also expected to continue across coastal portions of Southern California where preexisting dry conditions have left fuels in a very dry state.

“As the Western Fire Season continues to increase in activity across the Southwest in April, conditions across the central and southern Great Plains will gradually improve as greenup takes hold. Concerns across Southern California will remain as dry conditions will have led to a muted green up across the southern half of the state. Conditions in Alaska entering spring suggest a normal seasonal transition. While some areas of abnormally dry conditions exist across portions of the southwestern interior, large fire potential is expected to remain near normal entering May.

“The fire season activity across the Southwest will peak in May and June. Above Normal significant large fire potential is expected across the southern tier of the region during this period as drought conditions intensify under the dry, building heat. The same conditions will continue to promote Above Normal potential as well across Southern California. There is some indication that the Southwestern Monsoon may produce some initial surges in activity in late June. This could begin to slow activity across both regions while initiating the seasonal shift northward into the Great Basin. In Alaska, above average temperatures and near average precipitation across the state’s interior is expected to lead to Normal significant large fire potential for the core fire season months of May and June.”

April wildfire outlook weather

May wildfire outlook weather

June wildfire outlook weather

APRIL-JUNE 2018 WEATHER

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Drought Monitor

Wildfire potential, February through May

Above: wildfire potential for February, 2018, issued February 1, 2018.

(Originally published at 1:41 p.m. MDT February 1, 2018)

On February 1 the Predictive Services section at the National Interagency Fire Center issued their Wildland Fire Potential Outlook for February through May. The data represents the cumulative forecasts of the ten Geographic Area Predictive Services Units and the National Predictive Services Unit.

If the prediction is accurate, the wildfire potential in Southern California and the Southern Plains will remain above normal for the entire four-month period and will increase in the Southwest and Northwestern Great Plains in Montana and North Dakota. The Eastern U.S. should expect normal or below normal potential.

Below are:

  • The highlights of the NIFC narrative report for the next several months;
  • NIFC’s monthly graphical outlooks;
  • NOAA’s three-month temperature and precipitation forecasts; and
  • Drought Monitor.

“The significant wildland fire potential forecasts included in this outlook represent the cumulative forecasts of the ten Geographic Area Predictive Services units and the National Predictive Services unit.

“Wildfire activity is likely to begin to increase in February as would be seasonally expected. During the early portions of the year it is typical for significant fires to begin to occur across the southern tier of the U.S. Currently it appears the highest likelihood for above normal significant wildland fire potential will be in place across portion of the southern plains and Florida and Georgia. Across the southern plains the last years precipitation totals have brought about a somewhat robust fine fuel crop, which will provide an elevated baseline of fire activity. When this elevated fuel condition is exacerbated by a period of dry and windy conditions it will provide opportunities for any ignitions to become significant fires.

“These incidents will be difficult to predict, but extra attention should be paid to this area when dry and windy conditions are forecasted. In Florida and Georgia the significant drought that led to amplified fire activity in the fall across the south has not improved. Moisture deficits in these fuel types are significant because they not only make ignition significantly more likely but they also make fires much more difficult to fight. Both conditions make the need for fire suppression resources higher. Both of these significant areas of above normal potential are likely continue through March and probably return to normal in April or May.

“At the end of the Outlook period significant fire potential across portions of Alaska will being to increase. This is also generally seasonally anticipated, however, the potential for above normal significant fire activity in the south central portion of the state is likely. Drought conditions indicate that some unusual dryness will be in place in this area as fire season begins. This will likely lead to earlier than usual ignitions and the potential for worse than usual fires. In the shorter term Hawaii is likely to see some elevated activity thanks to some unusual dryness, but this condition is expected to be short lived.

“Additionally, fire activity is expected to be below normal across western portions of Tennessee and Kentucky throughout the Outlook period.”


wildfire potential March

wildfire potential April May

3-month temperature precipitation outlook

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Drought Monitor

Wildfire potential, January through April

Above: wildfire potential for January, 2018.

(Originally published at 12:55 p.m. MDT January 2, 2018)

On January 1 the Predictive Services section at the National Interagency Fire Center issued their Wildland Fire Potential Outlook for January through April. The data represents the cumulative forecasts of the ten Geographic Area Predictive Services Units and the National Predictive Services Unit.

If the prediction is accurate, Southern California should see higher than normal wildfire activity throughout the period, with increasing potential in the southwest and southern great plains. The forecast for the southeast is for normal to below normal activity.

Below are:

  • The highlights of the NIFC narrative report for the next several months;
  • NIFC’s monthly graphical outlooks;
  • NOAA’s three-month temperature and precipitation forecasts; and
  • Drought Monitor.

“…Looking forward, a less amplified pattern is expected to develop for January and February with the mean position of the high pressure ridge being along or just off the West Coast. This should result in overall slightly colder than average conditions in northern areas with pockets of above average precipitation over the Northwest and Great Lakes regions. There is some concern that an active, westerly flow could produce overall warmer and drier than average conditions in March and April in these areas. Across the southern tier of the country, the overall warmer and drier than average conditions will continue through February and into March and possibly April. For this outlook period, the areas of note for increased fire potential will remain Southern California and the southwest. The Great Plains could see periodic increases in activity when wind events arise.”

Wildfire potential February Wildfire potential March Apriltemperature forecastprecipitation forecast

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Drought Monitor

Wildfire potential, December through March

Dry offshore winds predicted for Southern California next week.

Above: wildfire potential for December, 2017.

(Originally published at 8:12 a.m. MDT December 2, 2017)

On December 1 the Predictive Services section at the National Interagency Fire Center issued their Wildland Fire Potential Outlook for December 2017 through March 2018. The data represents the cumulative forecasts of the ten Geographic Area Predictive Services Units and the National Predictive Services Unit.

If the prediction is accurate, Southern California and Southern Kansas should see higher than normal wildfire activity, with increasing potential in New Mexico, Texas, and Oklahoma in the latter part of the period.

Below are:

  • The highlights of the NIFC report;
  • NIFC’s graphical outlooks;
  • NOAA’s long range temperature and precipitation forecasts; and
  • Drought Monitor.

“Warm and dry conditions continued across Southern California and the Southwest in November. The wind events observed across Southern California in October ended in early November. Periodic wind episodes in mid-to-late November led to slight increases in fire activity in New Mexico. In the Southeast, the autumn fire season was held in check by the passage of occasional, precipitation-bearing frontal systems that kept fire danger indices from reaching levels similar to what was observed in November 2016. Across the remainder of the country, regions were generally out of fire season as fire activity remained low.

“Temperatures across the Southwest and California were generally above average in November as high pressure off the coast of Baja California dominated. New England also experienced above average temperatures. Alaska experienced temperatures that were well above average for the first half of the month but saw a pattern shift during the middle portion of the month that allowed for below average temperatures to develop. The remainder of the country experienced near average temperatures through the month. Precipitation deficits mounted across the Southwest and Southern California as the weak La Nina-like conditions persisted. The overall dry, westerly flow across the Great Plains also allowed for pockets of drought conditions to emerge. Wetter-than-average precipitation continued across the northwestern portion of the country and across the Great Lakes region. In Alaska, precipitation was near average.

“Latest data shows that the patterns observed in November persisting through the winter months across the nation. Mountain snowpack should be at least near average except across the Southwest where below average snowpack is expected. The potential for above normal snowpack exists from the northern Sierras north to the Canadian border. An elevated potential for significant snowfall also exists across the Great Lakes region. Temperature departures should be stratified with the northern tier of the country experiencing overall colder-than-average temperatures and the southern tier of the country experiencing warmer-than-average temperatures.”

Wildfire potential January

Wildfire potential February March

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Wildfire potential, November through February

On November 1 the Predictive Services section at the National Interagency Fire Center issued their Wildland Fire Potential Outlook for November through February. The data represents the cumulative forecasts of the ten Geographic Area Predictive Services Units and the National Predictive Services Unit.

If the prediction is accurate, Southern California should see higher than normal wildfire activity well into next year.

Below are:

  • The highlights of the NIFC report;
  • NIFC’s graphical outlooks;
  • NOAA’s long range temperature and precipitation forecasts; and
  • Drought Monitor.

“Warm and dry conditions continued across California and the Southwest in October. Several easterly, multi-day wind events coupled with high heat and very low humidity values contributed to significant bursts of fire activity California mid-month. A passing front at the end of the third week of the month brought much needed moisture to the dry fuels across the northern half of the state. The southern half of the Great Basin also saw an increase in grass fire activity during the month due to the warm, dry, and occasionally breezy conditions.

“Looking elsewhere, most of the rest of the nation exited the core fire season though occasional activity was observed along the Rocky Mountain Front in Montana and Wyoming. The autumn fire season in the Southeast was much quieter than the previous year due to the passage of several wet cold fronts that brought timely and occasionally abundant moisture.

“Temperatures across the East, Southwest, and California were generally above average for the month with some locations along both the East and West Coasts reaching as much as fifteen degrees above average at points. The Pacific Northwest, Northern Rockies, northern Great Basin, and central Rockies generally experienced cooler-than-average conditions though a warming trend developed near month’s end. Alaska was generally colder and wetter than average.

“Precipitation departures from average showed significant dryness across the southwestern quarter of the nation and across much of Texas. Significantly wet conditions were observed across the Northwestern quarter of the country as several very wet systems impacted the region during the middle to latter half of the month. Another wet signal for the month was observed across the Great Lakes Region and the Ohio and Tennessee River Valleys.

“Latest forecast data suggests that California will remain the focus of periodic bursts in fire activity through November and possibly into December. Portions of the Deep South may also exhibit increased activity in between precipitation events as well. By February, the focus will shift to the southern Great Plains as the antecedent dry conditions begin to take its toll.”


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