Wildfire potential, December through March

The Predictive Services section at the National Interagency Fire Center has issued their Wildland Fire Potential Outlook for December through March. The data represents the cumulative forecasts of the eleven Geographic Area Predictive Services Units and the National Predictive Services Unit.

If their predictions are accurate, southern California will have above normal wildfire activity in December, but no other areas are expected to be in that category during the next four months.

Here are the highlights from their outlook.

December, 2014

December wildfire potential

  • Long-term precipitation deficits and a risk off offshore winds will keep fire potential elevated through mid-December in southern California, returning to near normal wildland fire potential for the remainder of December.
  • Below normal fire potential is expected for most of the South.

January, 2015

January wildfire potential

  • No areas of above normal fire potential are expected for this period.
  • Below normal fire potential will continue for most of the South and Mid-Atlantic regions.

February – March, 2015

February March wildfire potential

  • No areas of above normal fire potential are expected for this period.
  • Below normal fire potential will continue across central and southern Texas, Florida, and southern Georgia.

UPDATE, December 4, 2014: the drought monitor released today.

Drought monitor

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Wildfire potential, November through February

The Predictive Services section at the National Interagency Fire Center has issued their Wildland Fire Potential Outlook for October through January. The data represents the cumulative forecasts of the eleven Geographic Area Predictive Services Units and the National Predictive Services Unit.

If their predictions are accurate, southern California will have above normal wildfire activity through December, along with Minnesota in November, while the rest of the United States will have normal or below normal activity.

Here are the highlights from their outlook.

November

November fire weather

  • Above normal fire potential continues across portions of central and southern California. Long  term drought and a potential for offshore winds will keep potential elevated through November.
  • Most of Minnesota along with portions of Iowa and Wisconsin will have elevated fire potential for November. This is not expected to persist into December.
  • Below normal fire potential will continue across the Gulf Coast states.

December

December fire weather

  • Fire potential will continue to diminish in California, leaving coastal areas of southern California with above normal significant fire potential.
  • Below normal fire potential will expand across most of the South and Mid-Atlantic regions.

January-February

January February wildfire weather

  • No areas of above normal fire potential are expected for this period.
  • Below normal fire potential will continue across central and southern Texas, Florida, and southern Georgia.
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Wildfire potential, October through January

The Predictive Services section at the National Interagency Fire Center has issued their Wildland Fire Potential Outlook for October through January. The data represents the cumulative forecasts of the eleven Geographic Area Predictive Services Units and the National Predictive Services Unit.

If their predictions are accurate, California will be the only area with above normal wildfire activity.

Here are the highlights from their outlook.

October

September wildfire outlook

  • Above normal fire potential continues across some portions of northern, central and southern California. Long term drought coupled with increasing potential for offshore winds will keep potential elevated through October.
  • Below normal fire potential is expected for central Texas as well as the southern Atlantic Coast.
  • Elsewhere normal fire potential is expected as many areas transition to out of season conditions for the winter.

November

November wildfire outlook

  • Above normal fire potential will be alleviated in the north, leaving central and southern California as the only areas with continuing threats from dry fuels coupled with offshore flow.
  • Below normal fire potential will expand to include an area stretching from Texas to the Atlantic Coast.
  • Most other areas are out of season during November.

December and January

December January  wildfire outlook

  • The last remaining areas of above normal potential in California will transition to normal during December, leaving only normal to below normal conditions.
  • Below normal fire potential will continue from Texas to the Atlantic Coast.
  • Most other areas are out of season December through January.
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Wildfire potential, September through December

The Predictive Services section at the National Interagency Fire Center has issued their Wildland Fire Potential Outlook for September through December, 2014.

The data represents the cumulative forecasts of the eleven Geographic Area Predictive Services Units and the National Predictive Services Unit.

If their predictions are accurate, firefighters could be busy in Washington and Oregon through October, and busy in southern California into December. The fall fire season in the southeast looks like it will be normal or slower than normal.

September

September  wildfire outlook

  • Above normal fire potential will remain across southwestern Oregon through September for lingering dryness and potential dry, east winds.
  • Fire potential will remain elevated across portions of California. Continued dry fuels will couple with potential offshore winds.
  • Below normal fire potential is expected to continue for some portions of the eastern U.S. and the Hawaiian Islands.

October

October  wildfire outlook

  • Above normal fire potential will persist across California as fuels will remain dry and off shore flow season arrives in earnest. Northern and central California will return to normal potential by the end of the month.
  • Below normal fire potential is expected to continue for some portions of the southern Plains, Florida, and Hawaii.

November and December

(Note: there was a technical problem in getting a good copy of the image below.)

November December wildfire outlook

  • Above normal fire potential will persist across southern California as offshore flow potential continues. Expect a return to normal potential from north to south beginning in late November through December.
  • Below normal fire potential is expected to continue for the Gulf and Southeast Coasts, and Hawaii.
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Wildfire potential, August through November

The Predictive Services section at the National Interagency Fire Center has issued their Wildland Fire Potential Outlook for August through November, 2014.

The data represents the cumulative forecasts of the eleven Geographic Area Predictive Services Units and the National Predictive Services Unit. If their predictions are accurate, firefighters could be busy in Washington, Oregon, and California.

August

Wildfire potential for August, 2014

  • Above normal fire potential will continue across much of the West Coast states. Southwestern Puerto Rico has been unusually dry this summer and has above normal fire potential.
  • Fire potential will return to normal across portions of the Northern Rockies and Rocky Mountain Areas.
  • Below normal fire potential is expected for western Oklahoma, western Texas, southeastern New Mexico and much of the coastal Southeast.

September

Wildfire potential for September, 2014

  • Above normal fire potential will persist across the western states through September with fire potential returning to normal over eastern portions of Northern California and Northwest by late September.
  • Below normal fire potential will continue over the southern Plains, the mid-Mississippi Valley and part of the Southeast. Hawaii will remain below normal potent.

October and November

Wildfire potential for October-November, 2014

  • Above normal fire potential will remain over southern California through the fall while Northern California, Oregon and Washington return to normal, essentially ending their significant fire season.
  • Below normal fire potential will continue across the southern U.S. and the mid-Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. Hawaii will also remain below normal.
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Wildfire potential, July through October, 2014

The Predictive Services section at the National Interagency Fire Center has issued their Wildland Fire Potential Outlook for July through October, 2014. The data represents the cumulative forecasts of the eleven Geographic Area Predictive Services Units and the National Predictive Services Unit. If their predictions are correct, the wildfire season will be busier than usual in the states of California, Washington, Oregon, Idaho, Nevada, and Arizona.

July

July wildfire potential

  • Above normal fire potential will persist over much of California, the Northwest and the Great Basin. Southern Arizona and southwestern New Mexico will return to normal in July.
  • Below normal fire potential will continue for much of the south central and southeast U.S. Below normal potential will also become prevalent across portions of the Northern Rockies and Rocky Mountains.

August

August wildfire potential

  • Above normal fire potential will continue over most of California, Nevada, Oregon, Washington and Idaho. Above normal conditions could possibly develop across the New England states and Four Corners area if short-term weather develops that would support fire outbreaks.
  • Below normal fire potential will continue over northern Idaho, Montana and portions of Wyoming, Colorado and South Dakota. Portions of Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Tennessee, Louisiana and Mississippi will also continue to see below normal fire potential.

September through October

September October wildfire potential

  • Above normal fire potential will remain over Southern and Central California. Northern California, Oregon and Washington will return to normal during this period.
  • Below normal fire potential will return across much of the Southeastern U.S. except for gulf coastal areas and most of the Coastal Atlantic states.
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