Wildfire potential, September through December, 2013

The Predictive Services section at the National Interagency Fire Center issued their Wildland Fire Potential Outlook for September through December, 2013. If their prediction is correct the world of wildland fire will be slower than normal everywhere in the United States except for California. Here is a summary:

wildfire Outlook Sept 2013

September

  • Significant fire potential remains above normal for a large portion California due to long term drought and high fire danger indices. This will be exacerbated by the possibility of off-shore flow events developing.
  • The remainder of the western U.S. will return to normal September conditions and begin to transition into regular fall fire activity levels.
  • In the western Great Lakes states conditions will increase to normal and some fall fire activity should be expected
  • The southeast will continue to see periodic moisture and a below normal fall fire season, except possible short term increases across the southern plains.

wildfire Outlook Oct 2013
October

  • Most of California will return to normal during October as fall develops in earnest. This will be late month for portions of northern California
  • Southwestern California will continue to see above normal significant fire potential through the month and will also have a continued threat of off-shore flow events.
  • Below normal fire potential will continue across portions of the eastern U.S.

Widfire Outlook Nov-Dec 2013
November and December

  • The remainder of California will return to normal out of season significant fire potential during this period.
  • Below normal fire potential will continue across portions of the eastern U.S

Wildfire potential, August through November, 2013

Today the Predictive Services section at the National Interagency Fire Center issued their Wildland Fire Potential Outlook for August through November, 2013. Here is their prediction for August:

Significant fire potential remains above normal for a large portion of the Northwest and the California mountains as fuels remain much drier than normal. South central Alaska will have higher significant fire potential in early August. The East will remain wet through August.

wildfire potential August, 2013wildfire potential September, 2013

wildfire potential Oct-Nov, 2013

Wildfire potential, July through October, 2013

Monday the Predictive Services section at the National Interagency Fire Center issued their Wildland Fire Potential Outlook for July through October, 2013.

As you probably know, fire activity is high right now in Arizona and New Mexico. Here is NIFC’s prediction for July in the Southwest:

Significant wildland fire potential will remain above normal across much of Arizona and northwestern New Mexico in early July and slowly return to normal across the Area from east to west as the monsoon develops. The Area will remain normal from August through October.

July will bring an end to the typical fire season weather pattern and begin the transitions to a monsoonal pattern. In July, upper level high pressure will be in place over the Great Basin to begin the month which will allow most areas east of the divide to moisten up with higher humidity and areas of scattered wet storms during the first week of July. Moisture will lead to more lightning potential into Arizona during the first week or so of July until the upper high eventually settles far enough north and east to allow moisture intrusion through all of Arizona. As usual, moisture will develop from east to

west leaving northern and northwestern Arizona the last to return to normal around mid-July or shortly thereafter.

Wildfire potential July 2013

Wildfire potential  August, 2013

Wildfire potential September-October 2013

Below is the Executive Summary from the document:
Continue reading “Wildfire potential, July through October, 2013”

Wildfire potential, June through September, 2013

Wildfire Outlook June

Today the Predictive Services section at the National Interagency Fire Center issued their Wildland Fire Potential Outlook for June through September, 2013. The above normal wildfire potential across California in June is predicted to spread during July, August, and September into all of Oregon and parts of Washington, Idaho, Nevada, and Montana, while the fire danger in the southwest will begin decreasing in July as the area enters their monsoon season.

With the extremely low moisture content in California’s live vegetation expected to get even lower throughout the summer, firefighters and property owners in the state should prepare for one of the busiest fire seasons on record, if the predictions are correct for the drought to continue.

There will not be enough firefighters to protect every house when fires move into an urban interface, so homeowners need to realize their responsibility to make their property fire safe.

Wildfire outlook July

Wildfire outlook August September

Below is the Executive Summary from the document:
Continue reading “Wildfire potential, June through September, 2013”

Wildfire potential, May through August, 2013

Wildfire potential, May, 2013

Today the Predictive Services section at the National Interagency Fire Center issued their Wildland Fire Potential Outlook for May through August, 2013. Thankfully they changed the color codes and legend from the partially indecipherable maps last month, so that they are much easier to interpret. Thanks Ed Delgado, NIFC’s Predictive Services manager! It’s much better, but the “Returning to Normal” legend icon is still a little strange.

Wildfire potential, June, 2013

Wildfire potential, July - August, 2013

Below is the Executive Summary from the document.

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The May, June and July through August 2013 significant wildland fire potential forecasts included in this outlook represent the cumulative forecasts of the eleven Geographic Area Predictive Services Units and the National Predictive Services Unit.

May

  • -Significant fire potential will be above normal for south central Oregon, the interior mountains and foothills of southern California and the Sacramento Valley and adjacent lower foothills.
  • -Significant fire potential will increase to above normal in southeastern Arizona, much of western New Mexico, and northern Virginia.
  • -Significant fire potential will be below normal for most of the southeastern U.S., Puerto Rico and the southern half of Alaska.

June

  • -Significant fire potential will be above normal over much of California and Oregon, south central Washington, most of Arizona and New Mexico, and southern Utah and Colorado.
  • -Significant fire potential will remain below normal for the central Gulf states and Puerto Rico.
  • -Significant fire potential will return to normal in northern Virginia.

July and August

  • Above normal significant fire potential will remain in California, Oregon and Washington while expanding into central Idaho and southwestern Montana.
  • Significant fire potential will return to normal in the Southwest.
  • Significant fire potential will be below normal in the far Southeast and Puerto Rico.

NIFC produces wildfire outlook, target audience: children

The External Affairs section at the National Interagency Fire Center has apparently chosen children as their target audience for this “2013 Preseason PIO Podcast” about the upcoming fire season.

It is not clear who should receive the, uh, blame credit, for this innovation, but Ed Delgado, the Fire Weather Program Manager, narrates this two-minute video.