Wildfire potential will be above normal for southern and central plains in March

Expected to move west over the following 3 months

wildfire potential March 2022

The forecast for wildland fire potential issued March 1 by the National Interagency Fire Center predicts that in March the potential for wildfires will be higher than average in Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, and the central and southern plains.

The data from NIFC shown here represents the cumulative forecasts of the ten Geographic Area Predictive Services Units and the National Predictive Services Unit.

Below:

  • Excerpts from the NIFC narrative report for the next four months;
  • Additional NIFC monthly graphical outlooks;
  • NOAA’s three-month temperature and precipitation forecasts;
  • Drought Monitor;
  • Keetch-Byram Drought Index;
  • Soil moisture.

“Most of the West, Plains, and Texas remain in drought, with abnormally dry conditions now across Florida and continuing in portions of the Carolinas.

“Climate outlooks through spring indicate areas receiving below normal precipitation will likely expand generally south to north across the West, with below normal temperatures likely continuing across the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies. Much of the Great Lakes and Northeast are forecast to have above normal precipitation through spring, with near to above normal temperatures across the central and eastern US. Additionally, there are indications for an active severe weather pattern this spring from eastern portions of the Plains into the Southeast and Ohio Valley. Critically dry and windy periods will accompany the severe weather for much of the Plains, especially the southern and central High Plains.

“Above normal significant fire potential is forecast to expand across Florida, Georgia, and the Carolinas during March and April, with lingering above normal potential forecast to remain in Florida during May. Much of the central and southern Plains are expected to have above normal significant fire potential into April, while persisting on the High Plains and eastern slopes of the Front Range into June. Above normal potential is forecast in portions of south Texas and the Hill Country during March, with the westward retreat of above normal potential in Oklahoma, Kansas, and Texas following the expected green-up procession.

Most of the Southwest is forecast to have above normal significant fire potential in May and June, with potential increasing across southern and western Colorado and southern portions of the Great Basin. Central Oregon is likely to have above normal significant fire potential in May and June, with above normal potential forecast across much of coastal California by June. Alaska is forecast to have below normal potential in its panhandle through April, with below normal potential expected across large portions of the Interior in April and May.


wildfire potential April 2022

wildfire potential May 2022

wildfire potential June 2022

Temperature & precipitation outlook, 1 and 3 month
Temperature & precipitation outlook, 1 and 3 month. Feb. 28, 2022.

Continue reading “Wildfire potential will be above normal for southern and central plains in March”

Wildfire potential, February through May

wildfire potential outlook February

The forecast for wildland fire potential issued February 1 by the National Interagency Fire Center predicts that for the next four months the potential for wildfires will be higher than average at times in the Carolinas, Georgia, Florida, parts of New Mexico and Arizona, and the central and southern plains.

The data from NIFC shown here represents the cumulative forecasts of the ten Geographic Area Predictive Services Units and the National Predictive Services Unit.

Below:

  • An excerpt from the NIFC narrative report for the next four months;
  • Additional NIFC monthly graphical outlooks;
  • NOAA’s three-month temperature and precipitation forecasts;
  • Drought Monitor;
  • Keetch-Byram Drought Index.

“Nearly 90% of the West remains in drought, with most of the Plains and Texas also in drought. Most of Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley saw an expansion or exacerbation of drought as well. Much of the West had a dry January, but snowpack is mostly 75% to 125% of average. Above average precipitation across the Carolinas and Virginia reduced drought and fire potential concerns, while most of the Plains and Great Lakes observed below average precipitation.

“Climate outlooks through spring indicate near to below normal temperatures and near to above normal precipitation are likely across the northern half of the West into the western Great Lakes. Above normal precipitation is also likely across the Mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valleys and through much of the Great Lakes and Northeast into the Mid-Atlantic. However, drier than normal conditions are expected for the southern half of the West, southern and central Plains, and portions of the Southeast, with near to above normal temperatures likely as well across these areas. Guidance also indicates this could be a potentially busy severe weather season east of the Plains, which usually portends to periods of critical fire weather conditions on the Plains behind the severe weather.

“Above normal significant fire potential is forecast for much of the central and southern Plains through March while persisting on the High Plains and eastern slopes of the Front Range through April into May. Above normal potential is forecast in portions of south Texas and the Hill Country during February then spreading across far southwest Texas, much of New Mexico, and southern Arizona by May. The westward retreat of above normal significant fire potential in Oklahoma, Kansas, and Texas is following the expected green-up procession.

“Due to the recent widespread and in places, heavy precipitation across the Carolinas and Virginia, forecast above normal significant fire potential was removed in February. However, above normal significant fire potential is forecast in portions of the Florida Peninsular into southeast Georgia in February and likely persisting through the spring. Additionally, above normal potential is likely to expand across Florida and into the Carolinas during March and April. Lingering above normal potential is forecast to remain across Florida in May. Areas of south and east Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley will continue to be monitored for above normal potential.”

wildfire potential outlook March wildfire potential outlook April wildfire potential outlook May

Three-month temp and precip outlook
Three-month temperature and precipitation outlook

Drought Monitor, Jan. 25, 2022 KBDI Jan. 31, 2022

 

Wildfire potential predicted to be high in Southern Plains, Florida, Georgia, and Carolinas

NIFC’s wildfire potential outlook, January through April

wildland fire outlook, March 2022The forecast for wildland fire potential issued January 1 by the National Interagency Fire Center predicts that for the next four months the potential for wildfires will be higher than average in the Carolinas, Georgia, Florida, and the central and southern plains.

The data from NIFC shown here represents the cumulative forecasts of the ten Geographic Area Predictive Services Units and the National Predictive Services Unit.

Below:

  • An excerpt from the NIFC narrative report for the next four months;
  • Additional NIFC monthly graphical outlooks;
  • NOAA’s three-month temperature and precipitation forecasts;
  • Drought Monitor;
  • Keetch-Byram Drought Index.

“Nearly 90% of the West remains in drought, with a third of the West in the highest two categories of drought…. Most of the eastern two-thirds of the CONUS observed below normal precipitation with portions of the central and southern Plains receiving no precipitation during December. Above normal precipitation was observed across much of the West into portions of the northern Plains and northern Great Lakes. Temperatures were above normal for most of the CONUS except along portions of the West Coast and Montana. Abnormally dry and drought conditions expanded across the southern Plains due to the prevalence of much above normal temperatures and little to no precipitation in December.

“Climate outlooks for winter into early spring indicate above normal temperatures are likely along the southern tier of the CONUS, with the highest probabilities likely in the South. Below normal temperatures and above normal precipitation are expected across the Pacific Northwest into portions of the northern Rockies and northern Plains. The Great Lakes and Mid-Mississippi Valley are also likely to experience above normal precipitation through March. Below normal precipitation will likely accompany above normal temperatures across the southern third of the western US, through much of Texas, along the Gulf Coast, and into the Carolinas.

“Above normal significant fire potential is forecast for much of the central and southern Plains January through April with several periods of critical conditions possible due to wind events. Above normal potential is forecast to expand into portions of south Texas in February then westward across far West Texas, southern New Mexico, and southeast Arizona March into April.

“Above normal significant fire potential is expected to expand from the eastern Carolinas in January into the remainder of the Carolinas and much of Florida and Georgia February through April. Above normal potential is also forecast for portions of Virginia in February that will expand into eastern West Virginia and the Mid-Atlantic for March.”


wildland fire outlook, January 2022

wildland fire outlook, February 2022

(March is at the top of the article)

wildland fire outlook, April 2022


90-day precipitation & temperature outlook, issued Dec. 16, 2021 Keetch-Byram Drought Index Drought monitor, Dec. 28, 2021

Wildfire potential to remain high this month in Montana, Carolinas, and Hawaii

In February and March high fire potential expected for Southern Plains, Southeast Colorado, and Eastern New Mexico

December fire weather outlook

The forecast for wildland fire potential issued December 1 by the National Interagency Fire Center predicts that the December potential for wildfires will be higher than average in Central Montana, Hawaii, and the coastal areas of Georgia and the Carolinas. By February and March the fire danger will be higher than average across eastern New Mexico, west Texas, western Oklahoma, southeast Colorado, and western Kansas.

The data from NIFC shown here represents the cumulative forecasts of the ten Geographic Area Predictive Services Units and the National Predictive Services Unit.

High temperatures in the West

Temperatures far above average have been breaking records the last few days across much of the West, but especially in Oregon, Washington, Idaho, Montana, and the Dakotas. The heat combined with strong winds has resulted in a number of wildfires in Montana on Tuesday and Wednesday of this week.

Below:

  • An excerpt from the NIFC narrative report for the next several months;
  • Additional NIFC monthly graphical outlooks;
  • NOAA’s three-month temperature and precipitation forecasts;
  • Drought Monitor;
  • Keetch-Byram Drought Index.

“Climate outlooks for winter indicate above normal temperatures are likely along the southern tier of the CONUS, with the highest probabilities likely in the Southeast. Below normal temperatures and above normal precipitation remain expected across the Pacific Northwest and through portions of the northern Rockies and northern High Plains. The Great Lakes is also likely to experience above normal precipitation through February. Below normal precipitation will likely accompany above normal temperatures across the southern half to one-third of the western US, through much of Texas, along the Gulf Coast, and into the Carolinas.

“Above normal significant fire potential will continue on the plains of central and eastern Montana in December as this area remains snow-free with periodic dry and windy conditions. Additionally, leeward sides of the Hawai’ian Islands and the Coastal Plain in the Carolinas and Georgia are forecast to have above normal significant fire potential in December. Through winter, above normal significant fire potential is expected to expand into much of Florida and Georgia, while returning to normal potential in the Carolinas.

“Critical fire weather could bring periods of elevated fire potential to the southern Plains in December and January. However, there is greater confidence in above normal significant fire potential emerging by February across eastern New Mexico, west Texas, western Oklahoma, southeast Colorado, and western Kansas. Above normal potential is likely to expand eastward across Texas and Oklahoma and to lower elevations in southeast Arizona and southern New Mexico during March. This above normal potential will be acute during wind-driven events.”


January fire weather outlook February fire weather outlook March fire weather outlook

Continue reading “Wildfire potential to remain high this month in Montana, Carolinas, and Hawaii”

October wildfire potential to remain high in Montana, Northern California, and the Carolinas

New four-month forecast is available

3:49 p.m. MDT Oct. 5, 2021

wildland fire potential October 2021An updated forecast for wildland fire potential for the next four months was issued October 5 by the National Interagency Fire Center. If their predictions are correct:

  • October: The potential in Southern California will be below average through January; Northern California and parts of Idaho and Montana will be above average in October, while the Mid-South will be below average.
  • November: Northern California will remain above average along with Central Texas, Central Oklahoma and parts of the East Coast;
  • December: Central Texas, Central Oklahoma and parts of the East Coast will be above average.
  • January: Central Texas, Central Oklahoma, most of Florida, and the southern portions of Alabama and Georgia will be above normal.

The data from NIFC shown here represents the cumulative forecasts of the ten Geographic Area Predictive Services Units and the National Predictive Services Unit.

Below:

  • An excerpt from the NIFC narrative report for the next several months;
  • Additional NIFC monthly graphical outlooks;
  • NOAA’s three-month temperature and precipitation forecasts;
  • Drought Monitor;
  • Keetch-Byram Drought Index.

“Climate outlooks indicate warmer than normal conditions are likely for much of CONUS into winter with temperatures likely closer to normal in the Pacific Northwest, Northern Rockies, and into the western Great Lakes. Above normal precipitation is likely across the Pacific Northwest into the Northern Rockies through fall with below normal precipitation likely for the southern half of the West and the southern and central Plains. The Southeast is forecast to have below normal precipitation through fall, but portions of the region could be susceptible to heavy rainfall events.

“Above normal significant fire potential is forecast to continue into October for southwest Montana and eastern Montana into western North Dakota as these areas have missed the heavier precipitation in September. Western slopes of the northern Sierra through the Sacramento Valley to the Coast Ranges from the Bay Area to Ukiah, CA are forecast to have above normal potential through November, with leeside locations in Hawaii likely to have above normal significant fire potential into November as well. Portions of Oklahoma, Texas, and the eastern Carolinas into Florida are likely to have above normal significant fire potential this fall into winter, with portions of the Mid-Atlantic forecast to have above normal potential in November and December. All other areas are likely to have near normal significant fire potential or are out of fire season through January.”


wildland fire potential November 2021

wildland fire potential December 2021

wildland fire potential January 2021

90-day outlook, temperature and precip
Continue reading “October wildfire potential to remain high in Montana, Northern California, and the Carolinas”

Wildfire potential in September expected to remain above normal in parts of the Northwest

Predicted to be above normal in Northern California through November

Wildfire potential September

The forecast for wildland fire potential issued September 1 by the National Interagency Fire Center predicts that the potential for wildfires in Northern California will be above normal September through November. Northern Minnesota and the northwest one-quarter of the country  will also be above normal in September. Hawaii and Wyoming could be busy in September and October. The southeast Atlantic coast states may experience above normal fire activity in October and November, but December looks to be pretty average in all 50 states.

The data from NIFC shown here represents the cumulative forecasts of the ten Geographic Area Predictive Services Units and the National Predictive Services Unit.

Below:

  • An excerpt from the NIFC narrative report for the next several months;
  • Additional NIFC monthly graphical outlooks;
  • NOAA’s three-month temperature and precipitation forecasts;
  • Drought Monitor;
  • Keetch-Byram Drought Index.

“Climate outlooks indicate warmer than normal conditions are likely for much of CONUS through fall. Wetter than average conditions are likely across western Washington for the fall with below normal precipitation likely across the Southwest, Great Basin, central Rockies, and much of the Plains. The Southeast is forecast to have near normal precipitation through October but turn drier in late fall and early winter.

“Much of Southern Area and areas south of the Ohio River are likely to have below normal significant fire potential in September, but much of the southeast US and Mid-Atlantic is forecast to have above normal fire potential in October and November. Normal significant fire potential is forecast for Alaska along with most of Eastern Area through the period. The entire US is forecast to have normal fire potential in December.

“Above normal significant fire potential is forecast to continue for September across much of the Northwest and portions of the Great Basin, Northern Rockies, and Rocky Mountain Geographic Areas. Most of these areas will return to normal fire potential in October and November except for portions of Wyoming, northwest Colorado, and the Black Hills, which will remain above normal into October. Much of northern California is forecast to have above normal potential through November with leeside locations in Hawaii likely to have above normal significant fire potential into October.”


Wildfire potential October

Continue reading “Wildfire potential in September expected to remain above normal in parts of the Northwest”