The Predictive Services section at the National Interagency Fire Center has issued their National Wildland Significant Fire Potential Outlook for July through October, 2011. If this turns out to be accurate, it looks like there will be average or below average wildfire potential beginning in July, except for Texas — of course. When it comes to wildfires over the last 8 months or so, if it were not for bad luck, Texas would have no luck at all.

Firefighters in Arizona and New Mexico have both been extremely busy during the last 30 days, with both states experiencing record-breaking fires, larger than any in recorded history. Here’s what the outlook says about that area:

Southwest: Above normal significant fire potential is expected across the northwestern one-third to one-half of Arizona as well as sections of northwestern New Mexico in July. Much of the remainder of the Southwest will transition from above normal to normal during the first 7-10 days of the month. Seasonal trends indicate moisture under the subtropical ridge will produce periods of increased rainfall over the region. However, conditions in the northwestern parts of both Arizona and New Mexico may linger in high fire potential past mid-month until deeper moisture and precipitation can migrate to those areas and reduce the threat. Temperatures are expected to be above normal for most of the area while precipitation is expected to be normal with slightly below normal over western Arizona.

Normal significant fire potential is expected for the entire Southwest for August through October. Normal to slightly above normal monsoon activity could produce above normal precipitation for the period, especially near the continental divide and eastward. The western Arizona lowlands could see normal precipitation. Temperatures are expected to be normal to slightly above normal through the period.

The Predictive Services section of the National Interagency Fire Center issued their National Wildland Significant Fire Potential Outlook today for the period March through June. At least we are pretty sure those are the dates that are covered. As sometimes happens with this monthly report, there are several errors or typos at the beginning of the document relative to dates that are included in the report. The problem with the errors is, we have to wonder if any other portions of the report are invalid.

But here are some excerpts from the report issued today:

The primary factors influencing these outlooks are:

La Niña: The ongoing strong La Niña episode is expected to weaken this spring of although its effects will continue to be felt. Warmer and drier weather is expected to occur across the southern tier of states and into the southern & central Great Plains with a corresponding increase in significant fire potential.

Drought: Persisting and increasing drought across portions of the southern and central U.S. and along the mid-Atlantic seaboard will result in increasing significant fire potential during the late winter and spring.

Fuel Dryness: Unusual dryness across the southern tier of states observed this winter will expand areas of above normal significant fire potential westward across southern New Mexico & into southeast Arizona and northward into the Colorado front range & central plains. Increasing fuel dryness is also expected to expand northward from Florida to the southern and mid-Atlantic seaboard.

Since much of the central and northeast United States is dealing with extreme winter weather and blizzard warnings today, wildfire potential may not be uppermost on the minds of many of us. However portions of Texas, Florida, and Georgia have “above normal” wildfire potential for the next four months.

According to the National Interagency Fire Center, who prepared this wildfire potential outlook, the primary factors influencing this analysis are:

• La Niña: The ongoing strong La Niña influence is expected to continue well into 2011. This tends to result in drier and eventually warmer than usual weather across the southern tier of states and into the southern & central Great Plains, contributing to increased fire potential.

• Drought: Persisting and developing drought across portions of the southern and central U.S. will promote above normal significant fire potential during the late winter, expanding westward and northward in early spring.

• Fuel Dryness: Dryness across the southern tier of the U.S. this winter will expand areas of above normal significant fire potential westward across southern New Mexico and southeast Arizona and northward into the Colorado Front Range and central plains.