Tag: potential

As we enter what are usually two of the busiest months of the wildland fire season in the West, the forecast for wildland fire potential issued July 1 by the National Interagency Fire Center predicts that California and virtually the entire northwest one-quarter of the United States will have above normal fire potential in July and August.

The data from NIFC shown here represents the cumulative forecasts of the ten Geographic Area Predictive Services Units and the National Predictive Services Unit.

Below:

• An excerpt from the NIFC narrative report for the next several months;
• Additional NIFC monthly graphical outlooks;
• NOAA’s three-month temperature and precipitation forecasts;
• Drought Monitor;
• Keetch-Byram Drought Index.
  

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“Drought expanded and intensified over the West with more than 90% of the West now in drought. More than half of the West is in the highest two categories of drought. Numerous all-time record high temperatures were set in the Pacific Northwest, northern Great Basin, and Northern Rockies at the end of June as part of a historical heat wave. The first surge of monsoonal moisture arrived in the Southwest, Colorado, and southern Great Basin during the last few days of June.

“Climate outlooks indicate warmer than normal conditions are likely for much of the CONUS, especially the West, through summer. Much of the Rockies and the northern half of the West are also likely to have drier than normal conditions through September. Near normal precipitation is likely with the Southwest Monsoon in July, which should help alleviate drought conditions and significant fire activity, but drought is likely to expand and intensify across much of the West through the summer.

“Much of the Southern Area is likely to have below normal significant fire potential through the summer with mostly near normal significant fire potential in Eastern Area and Alaska into fall. Above normal significant fire potential is likely to remain in portions of northern Minnesota into August.

“Above normal significant fire potential will expand northward into the Great Basin and Rocky Mountain Geographic Areas through August with areas closer to the monsoon likely returning to near normal significant fire potential in July and August. Most of the Pacific Northwest, Northern Rockies, and northern Great Basin are expected to have above normal significant fire potential in July and August with areas beginning to return to normal significant fire potential in September and October. Most of the mountains and foothills in California are forecast to have above normal significant fire potential through September with areas prone to offshore winds retaining above normal potential through October. Leeside locations, saddles, and divides in Hawaii are likely to have above normal significant fire potential into October.”

The forecasts for wildland fire potential issued April 1 predict wildfire potential will be higher than normal in Florida, the Southern Plains, and the Southwest through June, 2021. High potential is also expected during April in North Dakota and portions of the state’s neighbors, Montana, South Dakota, and Minnesota.

According to the Drought Monitor issued on March 23 all of the 11 western states have areas with severe drought, and all of them except Washington have areas of extreme drought. Very large sections of exceptional drought, the highest category, are in Nevada, Utah, Colorado, Texas, New Mexico, and Arizona.

The data from NIFC shown here represents the cumulative forecasts of the ten Geographic Area Predictive Services Units and the National Predictive Services Unit.

Below:

• An excerpt from the NIFC narrative report for the next several months;
• More of NIFC’s monthly graphical outlooks;
• NOAA’s three-month temperature and precipitation forecasts;
• Drought Monitor;
• Keetch-Byram Drought Index.

“Climate outlooks indicate warmer and drier than normal conditions are likely for much of the Plains and Intermountain West through spring into early summer continuing and exacerbating drought there. A Fuels and Fire Behavior Advisory is in effect for northwest Minnesota for the potential of rapid rates of spread due to high fuel loading and fire carrying in all fuel types, including peat. Active fire seasons are anticipated for much of the Plains, especially the northern and southern Plains, and for the Southwest this spring.

“Above normal significant fire potential is expected across the northern Plains into northern Minnesota through April into early May. Depending on weather spring precipitation, this may extend farther into May before green-up. Additionally, much of the southern Plains is forecast to have above normal significant fire potential through May before green-up. Recent and continuing dry weather in Florida is likely to contribute to above normal significant fire potential through May with conditions returning to normal by late June.

“The Southwest is forecast to have above normal significant fire potential during most of April through June before the Southwest Monsoon arrives in July. Above normal significant fire potential will expand northward into the Great Basin and Rocky Mountain Geographic Areas May through July. Additionally, central Oregon and central and southeast Washington are likely to have above normal significant fire potential beginning in June with portions of the Coast Ranges, Sierra, and Cascades in California increasing to above normally by July.”

Continue reading “All 11 western states except Washington have areas with severe drought”

The maps in the March 1 National Significant Wildland Fire Potential Outlook issued by the Predictive Services section at the National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC) are nearly the same as the maps for the same months distributed on February 1. It took me a long time to see a couple of minor differences in the ones produced 28 days ago. The outlook predicts wildfire potential will be higher than normal in the Southern Plains through June, 2021. This will include portions of Texas, New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Kansas. Arizona and New Mexico will have enhanced fire activity April through June, according to the forecast.

The entire southwest one-quarter of the United States is currently experiencing either abnormally dry, severe, extreme, or exceptional drought.

The data from NIFC shown here represents the cumulative forecasts of the ten Geographic Area Predictive Services Units and the National Predictive Services Unit.

Below:

• An excerpt from the NIFC narrative report for the next several months;
• More of NIFC’s monthly graphical outlooks;
• NOAA’s three-month temperature and precipitation forecasts;
• Drought Monitor;
• Keetch-Byram Drought Index.

“Below normal precipitation was observed across much of US with the driest areas in the southern California, the southern Great Basin, and western and southern Arizona. Additionally, parts of the Plains had well below average precipitation with wide expanses of snow-free areas. Much of the western snowpack is near to above normal, but notable below normal locations include the Sierra and Southwest. Record setting cold temperatures developed across the central US during the first half of February leading widespread snow cover. Due to these cold temperatures, much of the US experienced well below normal temperatures for February except the Great Basin, California, the Southwest, and Florida.

“A weather pattern consistent with La Niña will likely continue through spring across the US. Drought conditions are expected to continue for much of California, the Great Basin, and the Southwest into summer with drying expected to increase across portions of the Plains and Florida. Drought conditions across the southern half of the Intermountain West and southern High Plains are likely to intensify.

“Climate outlooks show normal to below normal significant fire potential is likely for large portions of the Southeast, Ohio Valley, Appalachians, and into the Mid-Atlantic through March. However, significant fire potential will increase across Florida and parts of the central Gulf Coast in April with above normal significant fire potential anticipated in May and June.

“Above normal significant fire potential is expected during spring across the Southwest and southern Plains due to background drought and forecast drier and warmer than normal conditions. Lower to mid elevations in the Southwest are favored to have above normal significant fire potential beginning in March and April. Most of the southern Plains are forecast to have an active spring fire season before green-up. By May, much of the Southwest and portions of the southern Great Basin are likely to have above normal significant fire potential with all the Southwest geographic area and most of southern Colorado forecast to have above normal significant fire potential in June.”

Continue reading “Forecasters predict enhanced wildfire conditions in the southwest through June”