Hurricane Ian pushes north winds and low humidity into much of the Southeast

Fire weather outlook Sept. 28, 2022
Fire weather outlook Sept. 28, 2022. NOAA Storm Prediction Center.

The counter-clockwise rotation of winds around Hurricane Ian has brought north winds and low humidity to portions of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, and the panhandle of Florida. The combination of a strong surface high to the north and the strong pressure gradient around the hurricane will drive moderately strong northerly winds across much of the Southeast on Wednesday.

The forecast is for humidity in the teens and 20s with wind gusts of 20 to 35 mph Wednesday afternoon.

Wind forecast for 2 p.m. CDT Sept. 28, 2022
Wind forecast for 2 p.m. CDT Sept. 28, 2022. Windy.com. The colors represent wind speed in knots. See legend at lower-right. 

In the wind forecast above for 2 p.m. CDT Wednesday, Hurricane Ian is predicted to make landfall near Cape Coral, Florida.

The National Weather Service’s Red Flag Warning map was a little more conservative than the Storm Prediction Center’s designations of elevated and critical fire weather.

Red Flag Warnings
Red Flag Warnings at 8:45 a.m. Sept. 28, 2022. NWS.

The Storm Prediction Center’s forecast for Thursday is for elevated fire weather only in southern Alabama and the Florida panhandle.

Elevated or critical fire danger predicted Tuesday and Wednesday for the Central Gulf Coast vicinity

Updated at 4:21 p.m. CDT Sept, 27, 2022

Wind, noon CDT, Sept. 27, 2022
Wind forecast for noon CDT, Sept. 28, 2022. Windy.com

It turns out that one of the reasons for the elevated fire dangers and the strong north winds in Louisiana, Mississippi, Georgia, and Alabama is the counter-clockwise rotation around Hurricane Ian. This wind forecast for noon CDT on Wednesday shows the northerly flow in those states which is similar to the winds on Tuesday, but the speeds will be higher Wednesday.

The colors on the map represent wind speed, not precipitation. The legend for wind speed is at bottom-right (in knots).


Updated at 4 p.m. CDT Sept, 27, 2022

Red Flag Warnings, Mississippi, Alabama, Florida fire
Red Flag Warnings, 4 p.m. CDT Sept 27, 2022

The National Weather Service has modified this fire weather forecast repeatedly on Tuesday afternoon for the Central Gulf Coast vicinity, possibly due to complications caused by Hurricane Ian which is headed to the west side of Florida near Tampa.

The map above was current Tuesday at 4 p.m. CDT. There will be some Red Flag Warnings in the area on Wednesday, but we’ll wait until Wednesday morning to post the map, after the forecast settles a bit.


Red Flag Warnings, Sept 27, 2022
Red Flag Warnings and Fire Weather Watches, 11:10 a.m. CDT Sept 27, 2022.

Low humidity and strong wind predicted on Tuesday and Wednesday for the Central Gulf Coast vicinity brings elevated fire danger to areas of Louisiana, Arkansas, Mississippi, Alabama, and Florida.

A Red Flag Warning is in effect Tuesday afternoon for southwest Alabama and southeast Mississippi.

Fire weather central MS
Fire weather Sept. 27, 2022 for central MS, northeast LA, and southwest AR.

Weather forecasters expect the relative humidity will be in the low 20s across much of the area or even the high teens near the Gulf Coast. Afternoon wind gusts will be greater than 20 mph.

The forecast for Wednesday is for the critical fire weather to expand further into Alabama, the Florida panhandle, and Georgia.

Fire Weather Outlook, Sept 28, 2022
Fire Weather Outlook, Sept 28, 2022.

Wildfire smoke and red flag warnings for September 9 and 10

Smoke forecast for 2 a.m. MDT Sept. 10, 2022.
Forecast for vertically integrated smoke at 2 a.m. MDT Sept. 10, 2022.

Smoke from wildfires is expected to affect most of the Western United States Friday and Friday night.

Red Flag Warnings for extreme fire danger on Friday are posted for areas of Washington, Oregon, and California.

Red Flag Warnings, Sept. 9, 2022.
Red Flag Warnings, Sept. 9, 2022.

Smoke forecast and Red Flag Warnings, July 31, 2022

Wildfire smoke forecast for 11 p.m. MDT July 31, 2022
Wildfire smoke forecast for 11 p.m. MDT July 31, 2022.

Smoke from wildfires may be noticeable Sunday in northern California and the northwest, including Oregon, Washington, Idaho, Montana, and Wyoming.

Red Flag Warnings are in effect Sunday for portions of California, Oregon, Idaho, and Montana. The Red Flag Watches on the map are for extreme fire danger on Monday.

Red Flag Warnings, July 31, 2022
Red Flag Warnings, July 31, 2022.

Smoke forecast for Wednesday evening July 20, 2022

Wildfires in Texas and Idaho are producing most of the smoke

Wildfire smoke forecast, 9 p.m. MDT July 20, 2022 map
Forecast for vertically integrated wildfire smoke at 9 p.m. MDT July 20, 2022. NOAA.

The Moose Fire in eastern Idaho is generating copious amounts of smoke Wednesday that is predicted to travel southeast across Montana, Wyoming, Nebraska, Kansas and Missouri. Fires in Texas are also producing smoke. The combination of smoke created Tuesday and Wednesday is drifting into most of the states in the midwest, southeast, and northeast.

Red Flag Warnings for extreme wildfire danger are in effect Wednesday in portions of California, Wyoming, South Dakota, Oklahoma, and Texas.

Red Flag Warnings for extreme wildfire danger, July 20, 2022
Red Flag Warnings for extreme wildfire danger, July 20, 2022.

Red Flag Warnings in six states Sunday

Possible dry lightning in New Mexico and Arizona

Storm Prediction Center June 12, 2022 forecast lightning thunderstorms
Red flag warnings are in effect Sunday for locations in Nevada, Utah, Colorado, Texas, New Mexico, and Arizona. In New Mexico most of the warnings will last until Monday evening.

The forecast calls for winds gusting at more than 40 mph with single-digit relative humidity.

In addition, the NOAA Storm Prediction Center warns that isolated thunderstorms with little or no rain could occur in portions of New Mexico, Colorado, and Arizona.

Red Flag Warnings June 12, 2022 fire wildfire
Red Flag Warnings June 12, 2022.