Temperatures higher than normal are in the forecast through August 13 for Alaska, Washington, Oregon, California, and parts of Idaho, Montana, Nevada, and Arizona. If ignitions occur, firefighters could be busy in the far west for the next couple of weeks, while those farther east will see temperatures cooler than normal.
August 1 through 5:
August 1 through 5.
August 7 through 13:
August 7 through 13.
Thanks and a hat tip go out to Jim.
The Predictive Services section at the National Interagency Fire Center has issued their Wildland Fire Potential Outlook for July through October, 2014. The data represents the cumulative forecasts of the eleven Geographic Area Predictive Services Units and the National Predictive Services Unit. If their predictions are correct, the wildfire season will be busier than usual in the states of California, Washington, Oregon, Idaho, Nevada, and Arizona.
- Above normal fire potential will persist over much of California, the Northwest and the Great Basin. Southern Arizona and southwestern New Mexico will return to normal in July.
- Below normal fire potential will continue for much of the south central and southeast U.S. Below normal potential will also become prevalent across portions of the Northern Rockies and Rocky Mountains.
- Above normal fire potential will continue over most of California, Nevada, Oregon, Washington and Idaho. Above normal conditions could possibly develop across the New England states and Four Corners area if short-term weather develops that would support fire outbreaks.
- Below normal fire potential will continue over northern Idaho, Montana and portions of Wyoming, Colorado and South Dakota. Portions of Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Tennessee, Louisiana and Mississippi will also continue to see below normal fire potential.
September through October
- Above normal fire potential will remain over Southern and Central California. Northern California, Oregon and Washington will return to normal during this period.
- Below normal fire potential will return across much of the Southeastern U.S. except for gulf coastal areas and most of the Coastal Atlantic states.
Very dry conditions are expected to continue all summer on the west coast, the southwest, and in Texas.
The map below shows the probabilities that temperatures will be above or below normal in July.
Warnings for elevated wildfire danger have been issued by the National Weather Service for areas in Nevada, Utah, Arizona, New Mexico, and Colorado.
We continue to be amazed at how weather and fire danger can respect and adhere to state boundaries. The Joint Fire Science Program should investigate this phenomenon. Maybe additional imaginary lines could be put on maps on an as-needed basis that would control the weather to protect our firefighters, forests, and communities. Could we even reverse droughts and prevent floods?
The Red Flag Warning map was current as of 11:23 a.m. MDT on Monday. Red Flag Warnings can change throughout the day as the National Weather Service offices around the country update and revise their forecasts. For the most current data, visit this NWS site.
On June 1 the Predictive Services section at the National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC) issued their Wildland Fire Potential Outlook for June through September, 2014.
If the prediction is correct, the Rocky Mountains will get a pass this summer while the highest wildfire potential will be in:
- the extreme western states of California, Oregon, Washington, Nevada, and Arizona,
- and later in the summer spreading to the upper Midwest and New England.
And we also have a prediction from the National Weather Service and the latest edition of the Drought Monitor.
“The May, June, and July through August 2014 significant wildland fire potential forecasts included in this outlook represent the cumulative forecasts of the eleven Geographic Area Predictive Services Units and the National Predictive Services Unit.
- Above normal fire potential will persist over much of California, southern Arizona, and southwestern New Mexico. Central Alaska and the southeast interior will also experience above normal fire potential. Portions of Northern California, Oregon and Nevada will increase to above normal fire potential as well.
- Below normal fire potential will continue for much of the eastern half of the U.S., with the notable exception of the Great Lakes, Northeast and south Atlantic states.
I know climate change can’t be proven or disproven by the the weather for one day, one storm, or even one year, but my very unofficial observations lead me to the realization that there have been many, many record-setting weather events over the last several years.
Red Flag Warnings are in effect for areas in California and Alaska. In Southern California the Warning is in effect through Wednesday, where firefighters can expect east to northeast winds of 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 55 mph, along with a relative humidity of 5 percent with poor overnight recovery.
In the Susitna Valley in Alaska the Warning is related to a forecast for Tuesday which includes temperatures of 60 to 70 degrees, winds at 15 to 25 mph, and a relative humidity of 13 to 28 percent.
Red Flag Warnings, May 13, 2014
The Red Flag Warning map was current as of 9:46 a.m. MDT on Tuesday. Red Flag Warnings can change throughout the day as the National Weather Service offices around the country update and revise their forecasts. For the most current data, visit this NWS site.