Portions of western Canada could be in for a hot, dry summer

western Canada summer weather

From CBCnews:

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“Predicting the weather may not always be an easy task, but meteorologists are beginning to agree B.C. is in for a long, hot summer. Pennsylvania-based AccuWeather released its forecast Thursday, agreeing with last week’s prediction from Environment Canada that, for large parts of B.C., the heat is on.

“Sea temperatures have been averaging two or three degrees above normal across the Eastern Pacific,” Brett Anderson, senior meteorologist with AccuWeather told CBC News.

“That’s going to have a warming influence on places such as Vancouver, Victoria and even placed further inland.”

Anderson says that the higher sea temperatures combined with the effects of El Niño will mean the south coast will be one to one-and-a-half degrees warmer, but things are likely to be more dramatic in the interior.

“It does look fairly dry though the summer and the wildfire threat will be fairly high, ” Anderson said.

Nevertheless, while the B.C. Wildfire Management Branch say they do monitor long-term forecasts, their operations are planned on a short-term basis.

“As of right now, we’re looking to the immediate future.” fire information officer Melissa Klassen told CBC News. “We can always call in other resources if activities pick up.”  “

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Wildfire potential, April through July

The Predictive Services section at the National Interagency Fire Center has issued their Wildland Fire Potential Outlook for April through July. The data represents the cumulative forecasts of the eleven Geographic Area Predictive Services Units and the National Predictive Services Unit.

If their predictions are accurate, In April the fire potential should be above normal in the upper midwest, southern Alaska, northern great plains, and southern California.

Here are the highlights from their outlook.

April

wildfire outlook

  • Above normal wildland fire potential across the north central U.S. will expand.
  • Above normal wildland fire potential will develop across portions of Southern California.
  • Above normal wildland fire potential will become prevalent across southern Alaska.
  • Below normal wildland fire potential will continue along the coastal plain of the Southeast as well as Puerto Rico.

May

wildfire outlook

  • Wildland fire potential across the north central portion of the U.S. will return to normal in May
  • Above normal wildland fire potential will expand across into northern California, southwestern Arizona, and much of Hawaii.
  • Above normal wildland fire potential will persist across most of southern Alaska.
  • Below normal fire potential will develop on the southern Rockies Front Range and persist in Puerto Rico.

June & July

wildfire outlook

  • Above normal wildland fire potential will expand to across the West Coast, part of the northern Rockies and Great Basin, and continue for most of Hawaii.
  • Wildland fire potential will return to normal for southern Alaska.
  • Below normal wildland fire potential will spread across the Tennessee and Lower Mississippi Valleys.

And from NOAA and the USDA:

Drought Monitor

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