Wildfire potential, February through May, 2012

The Predictive Services section at the National Interagency Fire Center has issued their National Wildland Significant Fire Potential Outlook for February through May, 2012. According to their prediction, several areas of the United States will have above normal wildfire potential during this period.

Wildfire outlook, February, 2012

Seasonal wildfire outlook, March-May, 2012

Here is an excerpt from their report:

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La Niña: La Niña remains at near moderate strength and is expected to slowly weaken during the spring months. Classic weather patterns of wet and cold in the northwest and warm and dry in the south are expected, although intensity of these cannot be directly correlated to the strength of La Niña.

Drought: Significantly above normal precipitation fell January across parts of West and North Texas and southern Oklahoma. The Northwest also received significant precipitation. However, large parts of the Southwest and the Plains states remained much below normal. Severe to exceptional drought continues across the south central and far southeastern parts of the U.S. and over parts of the upper Mississippi valley.

Fuel Dryness: Late January and early February have brought a transition to much of the U.S. The southern tier continues to see drier than normal conditions, except across some portions of Texas, where precipitation is moistening fuels even though drought conditions remain prevalent. Also, tree mortality from drought will continue to be problematic. Across much of the west, including the Great Basin fine fuels remain heavy and continuous and are largely dry or capable of quickly drying. Significant fires will be possible with the combination of ignitions and windy conditions. The formerly dry Northwestern quarter of the country has begun to see significant moistening and snowpacks are beginning to increase. In the east the northern tier will largely be near normal seasonal fuel conditions with some dryness lingering across the Great Lakes states. The southeast will continue drier than normal fuels conditions south and east of the Tennessee Valley.

 

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Fire channelling — a danger to firefighters

The rapid escalation of a small fire due to fire channelling can result in a catastrophic decay in both firefighter and community safety that is counterintuitive.

That is how the authors of a paper wrapped up their findings about a weather phenomenon that can cause a wildfire to spread in unexpected directions. “Fire channelling” can force a fire on the lee side of a ridge to spread 90-degrees from the general wind direction. For example, if a west wind pushes a fire across a north-south ridge, on the lee or east side of the ridge the fire could spread to both the north and the south, counterintuitively.

Fire Channeling fig 11

The white arrow shows the general wind direction. The black area was not imaged by the line-scanner on this run. From the Sharples, McRae, and Wilkes paper funded by the Australian government.

Generally a strong wind has the most effect on the direction of spread of a fire — more so than topography or fuel. If a fire is spreading with a strong west wind, the rate of spread on the flanks, the north and south sides, will be much less than the head of the fire on the east side. Unless — fire channelling is occurring.

Firefighters usually face less risk when they attack a fire on the heel or flanks of a fire. In most cases it can be impossible to safely attack the head of a fast-moving fire in heavy fuels. But this fire channelling phenomenon has the potential to present firefighters with unexpected fire behavior, putting them in a dangerous situation on what they expected to be the flanks of a fire that suddenly converted to heads of the fire.

Fire Channelling

Fire channelling caused by wind-terrain-fire interactions. From the Sharples, McRae, and Wilkes paper funded by the Australian govermnent.

The authors of the paper, which is titled Wind–terrain effects on the propagation of wildfires in rugged terrain: fire channelling, considered several causes of fire channelling, including thermally induced winds, pressure-driven channelling, forced channelling, and downward momentum transport, but they settled on wind–terrain–fire interactions as the most likely mechanism driving the atypical spread. Here is an excerpt providing some details about wind–terrain–fire interactions:

…If a fire happened to spread into a region affected by a separation eddy, then the hot gas from the fire could be entrained within the eddy, with the strong wind shear at the top of the eddy impeding mixing between the synoptic and separated flows. Hence, supposing a fire enters a region of separated flow at the north end of a slope or valley, and treating the air within the eddy as a quasi-isolated system (i.e. a system that involves only limited mixing with the surrounding environment; cf. Byron-Scott 1990), the air within the northern part of the eddy will be at a higher temperature and pressure than the air within the southern part of the eddy. As a consequence, the air within the eddy will tend to move towards the south in response to the thermally induced pressure gradient or simply owing to thermal expansion of the air within the eddy. Based on the available evidence, such an interaction constitutes the most likely mechanism driving the atypical spread.

Access to the research

If you want to read the paper you will have to pay CSIRO Publishing $25, in spite of the fact that the authors appear to be funded by the Australian government. It was written by Jason J. Sharples, Richard H. D. McRae, and Stephen R. Wilkes who are associated with three organizations in Australia, the University of New South Wales at the Australian Defence Force Academy, the Bushfire Cooperative Research Centre, and the ACT Emergency Services Agency.

This is another example of government funded research that taxpayers have to pay for twice. Once when the government-paid employees conduct the research and write the paper, and a second time if a person wants to read it. We have written about this lack of Open Access numerous times before. However, this example is a little murky, in that the government sponsored research was published by CSIRO, a governmental body. But many U.S. wildfire researchers who are government employees publish their papers in the same CSIRO publication, the International Journal of Wildland Fire, behind a pay wall.

Sign the petition

At the U.S. White House web site you can sign a petition to make government funded research available at no additional charge to the public. Let President Obama know that you oppose HR3699, the Research Works Act, which is an attempt to put federally funded scientific information behind pay-walls and confer the ownership of the information to a private entity. You will need to register at the site, giving them a name and a real email address.

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Dry conditions in the West and South

As you can see from the snowpack and drought maps, much of the west and south are very dry. If these conditions linger throughout the winter, it could be an interesting fire season in many areas. The snowpack map helps explain the two recent large fires in northwest Montana 30 miles south of the Canadian border (map).

Snowpack_1-2-2012

Drought_monitor_1-3-2012

You can compare these maps to the National Wildland Significant Fire Potential Outlook for January through April, 2012 which we summarized on January 4.

Below are the long-range precipitation outlooks for the next six months, prepared December 15, 2011:
Continue reading

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Fire season in January

record high temperatureAlong with news of the 45,000 to 55,000 acres that have burned near Browning, Montana over the last 18 hours, comes more news that several cities in the United States are setting records today for high temperatures for the date. Below are the highest recorded so far today, which are already new records, with a few more hours of heating left:

  • Fargo, ND 44
  • Grand Forks, ND 43
  • Mitchell, SD 52
  • Kalispell, MT 52

Record high temperatures can mean more wildfires and more opportunities for prescribed fires. Steve Ispwitch, the Fire Management Officer of the Standing Rock Agency in South Dakota and North Dakota, wrote to us today:

I have submitted my third severity request so far in fiscal year 2012 for Standing Rock Agency, all of which have been approved. It has been unusually warm and dry since October, and we have had a couple of 170 acre fires in October and November that we caught with our engines and a SEAT. We have also been taking advantage of the ability to conduct prescribed burning when possible. We burned on December 28 and January 4, the latest and earliest perscribed fires (respectively) in any given year so far. Stay safe…

Right now, at 12:03 p.m MT, it is 61 here in southwest SD. I don’t know if that’s a record, but it has led to my decision to go hop on the motorcycle and take advantage of this great January weather. See ya!From The Back

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Wildfire potential, January through April, 2012

The Predictive Services section at the National Interagency Fire Center has issued their National Wildland Significant Fire Potential Outlook for January through April, 2012. According to their prediction, most of the United States is in for a quiet first part of the year with the exception of parts of Minnesota, New Mexico, Texas (as usual), Georgia, South Carolina, and Florida.

wildfire monthly_outlook 1-2012

wildfire seasonal outlook 1-2012

According to NIFC, the primary factors influencing these outlooks are:

  • La Niña: La Niña conditions will continue over the tropical Pacific and typical weather patterns will return to the US after intraseasonal circulations disrupted the classic La Niña patterns over North America in December.
  • Drought: Significantly above normal precipitation fell in December over parts of the front range of the southern Rockies, the central Plains and the Ohio Valley. Parts of central and west Texas, southwest New Mexico and southern Arizona also received above normal precipitation. Much of the West, the central and southern Rockies, the northern Plains and Florida received less than 50 percent of normal precipitation for the month.
  • Fuel Dryness: Fuel conditions continue to improve across most of the U.S. As winter progresses and La Niña returns the northern tier of the country will see fuel conditions that are not conducive to significant fires. The far southern portions of the country, however, will begin to experience drier and warmer periods as La Niña sets in. Even though these will not be as strong as last year, expect fuels conditions to dry significantly and support significant fires across the Southwest and the far Southeast.
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Strong winds hit southern California, Pasadena declares state of emergency

windThe predicted strong winds have hit much of southern California, at least in the far north and the Los Angeles areas. The city of Pasadena declared a local state of emergency because of downed power lines and the streets being littered with tree limbs. The mayor asked for help from Los Angeles County Public Works to help clear the streets. The city schools and libraries are closed today.

Wind speeds LA area 0943 PT 12-1-2011

Wind gust speeds in the Los Angeles area, 9:43 a.m. PT 12-1-2011

As of 7 a.m. local time about 300,000 utility customers across Southern California were hit with power outages as the Santa Ana winds caused damage throughout the region. But the winds in San Diego County, where San Diego Gas and Electric turns off the power during periods of extreme winds, they are comparatively mild and the gusts have not yet met the the threshold for flipping the switch, according to the SDG&E site.

Red Flag Warning map 12-1-2011

Red Flag Warning map 12-1-2011

Here are some of the strongest wind gusts we were able to find in California:

  • 94 mph, Mt. Elizabeth near Sonora
  • 106 mph, Grey Butte, near Mt. Shasta
  • 97 mph, Whitaker Peak, near Castaic Lake
  • 72 mph, San Rafael Hills, near Glendale
  • 83 mph, Acton

We are not aware of any fires larger than 100 acres burning in the area – yet.

The prediction is for the strong winds to continue through Friday afternoon. Below is the latest red flag warning from the National Weather Service for the Los Angeles area. (Maybe one day the NWS will fix that damned CAPS LOCK key):

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URGENT – FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA

1005 AM PST THU DEC 1 2011

…RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES FOR STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS AND MODERATELY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY…

A COLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER ARIZONA WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST OFFSHORE WINDS OVER MOST OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES THROUGH MOST OF FRIDAY. PEAK SUSTAINED WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED 40 MPH…ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE VALLEYS AND MOUNTAINS…WITH PEAK WIND GUSTS LIKELY EXCEEDING 60 MPH. THESE WINDS WILL ALSO HELP TO MAINTAIN LOW HUMIDITY READINGS…ESPECIALLY OVER THE COASTS AND VALLEYS. ALTHOUGH THESE WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN BY FRIDAY EVENING…THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

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