Red flag warnings for New England

Posted on April 4, 2012 by Bill Gabbert

Red flag warnings April 4, 2012

It is unusual to see Red Flag warnings for the New England states, but today the list includes most of southern New England — portions of: NH, VT, MA, RI, CT, NY, as well as parts of the western states of NV, AZ, NM, TX, MT, ND, and SD.

Here is an example of one of the warnings issued by the National Weather Service, in this case it is for western Mass.:

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RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND…

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON [MASS.] HAS ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND…WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING. THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

AFFECTED AREA…ALL OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EXCEPT FOR CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
WINDS…NORTHWEST 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.
TIMING…FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EVENING.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY…AS LOW AS 13 PERCENT.
TEMPERATURES…IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
IMPACTS…ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY SPREAD RAPIDLY. OUTDOOR BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED.

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Be careful out there New Englanders.

Wildfire potential, April through July, 2012

Posted on April 2, 2012 by Bill Gabbert

The Predictive Services section at the National Interagency Fire Center has issued their National Wildland Significant Fire Potential Outlook for April through July, 2012. If correct, Arizona, New Mexico, Florida, and portions of California and Nevada will experience above normal wildfire potential for the months May through July.

Monthly Wildfire Outlook April 2012

Seasonal Wildfire Outlook May-July 2012

Below is a summary of the wildfire potential:

Significant Fire Potential

Above Normal Significant Fire Potential is expected along the east coast from near Wilmington, North Carolina, to near Panama City, Florida, including all of the Florida peninsula; most of northwestern Nevada; foothills and inland valleys of southern California; and the lee side of the Hawai’in Islands.
Significant Fire Potential will increase to above normal in the spring across most of Minnesota, northern Wisconsin, the upper peninsula of Michigan and northwestern Iowa; central and western New Mexico, most of Arizona, southern Nevada, far southern Utah and extreme southwestern Colorado.
Below Normal Significant Fire Potential is expected for much of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, the middle and lower Mississippi Valley, and Puerto Rico. The rest of the country will have normal significant fire potential.

Climate and Drought Conditions

La Niña will continue to weaken as oceanic trends point to warming of the equatorial Pacific through spring, favoring a neutral or weak El Niño cycle by early summer.
Warmer than normal temperatures are expected across much of eastern two-thirds of the U.S.in March and transitioning to above normal across just the southern half of the country. Below normal temperatures are expected for the West coast and much of Alaska.
Precipitation is expected to be below median for most of the southwest, central and southern Plains, and the Gulf coastal region including all of Florida, and southern Alaska. Above median precipitation is expected for the Northwest and northern Rockies, the Upper Midwest, theGreat Lakes region, and the Ohio and mid-Mississippi valleys.
Drought will persist through much of the lower Atlantic and Gulf coasts, most of the southwestern and south central U.S., most of central and northern California, the western Great Basin, and the upper Mississippi valley. Drought will likely develop across the northern Plains, the eastern Great Basin and central Rockies, and southern California. There will be some improvement in the Northwest, parts of northern California, east Texas, and on the lee sides of the Hawai’in Islands.

More red flag warnings, March 26

Posted on March 26, 2012 by Bill Gabbert

Red flag warnings for March 26, 2012

More information about the red flag warnings.

The weather in western South Dakota is going to be interesting for the next day or two as you can see in the hourly graph below. The relative humidity will be above 50% until noon, when it drops into the low 20s. The wind will increase during the afternoon as a front comes through; 30+ mph with gusts in the mid-40s. And on Tuesday we’ll again see strong winds, 20+ with gusts around 30, with the RH about 20%.

Record-setting high temperatures in March

Posted on March 18, 2012 by Bill Gabbert

Map: Weather Channel

I continue to be amazed at the extraordinary, record-setting high temperatures across much of the United States. According to The Weather Channel, approximately 2,000 record highs have been recorded in the last seven days. One of the effects of this we are seeing is the wildfire occurrence occurring a couple of months earlier than normal in the Northern Rockies and Great Plains areas.

The map below is a screen grab of an interactive map at the The Weather Channel web site, at which you can click on a dot to see the high temperature predicted for today, March 18, and how much it will exceed the record high for this date.

Record high temperatures forecast 3-18-2012

Credit: Weather Channel

Some of the more notable high temperature records that are predicted for today include:

Bismarck, ND +10
Williston Sloulin AP, ND +12
Rochester, MN +17
Houghton Lake, MI +12
Burlington, VT +13

On Wednesday the temperature in Traverse City, Michigan was 81, which was 42 degrees above the average for that date, and 4 degrees above the previous high, according to records that go back to 1897.

Red Flag Warnings – again

Posted on March 17, 2012 by Bill Gabbert

Red Flag Warnings, March 17, 2012

I don’t remember seeing Red Flag Warnings covering such large areas, so frequently, and this early in the fire season. What’s going on here? Is it possible that there really is something to this Climate Change stuff (he said, with tongue planted in cheek)?

More info.

Red Flag Warnings, March 16

Posted on March 16, 2012 by Bill Gabbert

Again, much of the United States is under a Red Flag warning today, and in some areas the high fire danger will last through the weekend. Fire danger like this is unusual for the Great Plains and Northern Rockies this time of the year. Like Havre (Montana) Fire Department Chief Dave Sheppard said earlier this week about the 12,000-acre fire they had on Tuesday:

We typically don’t see these types of fires until May or June. It’s tinder dry out there. It’s like August fuels right now. If we don’t get some moisture, it’s going to be a long summer.

Most of the Red Flagged areas are expected to have low humidities with gusty winds, and some will have near record high temperatures.

Oh, and in case you are planning to travel to Guam they also have a Red Flag warning “for the explosive spread of wildfire”.