Wildfire potential, March through June, 2011

The Predictive Services section of the National Interagency Fire Center issued their National Wildland Significant Fire Potential Outlook today for the period March through June. At least we are pretty sure those are the dates that are covered. As sometimes happens with this monthly report, there are several errors or typos at the beginning of the document relative to dates that are included in the report. The problem with the errors is, we have to wonder if any other portions of the report are invalid.

But here are some excerpts from the report issued today:

monthly_outlook_March 2011

seasonal wildfire outlook_ April through June 2011

The primary factors influencing these outlooks are:

La Niña: The ongoing strong La Niña episode is expected to weaken this spring of although its effects will continue to be felt. Warmer and drier weather is expected to occur across the southern tier of states and into the southern & central Great Plains with a corresponding increase in significant fire potential.

Drought: Persisting and increasing drought across portions of the southern and central U.S. and along the mid-Atlantic seaboard will result in increasing significant fire potential during the late winter and spring.

Fuel Dryness: Unusual dryness across the southern tier of states observed this winter will expand areas of above normal significant fire potential westward across southern New Mexico & into southeast Arizona and northward into the Colorado front range & central plains. Increasing fuel dryness is also expected to expand northward from Florida to the southern and mid-Atlantic seaboard.


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Author: Bill Gabbert

After working full time in wildland fire for 33 years, he continues to learn, and strives to be a Student of Fire.