The Predictive Services section at the National Interagency Fire Center issued their National Wildland Significant Fire Potential Outlook today for April through July, 2011.
The primary factors influencing these outlooks are:
- La Niña: The ongoing La Niña episode is forecast to weaken in the spring and return to El Niño-Southern Oscillation neutral conditions.
- Drought: Conditions are expected to persist and worsen across portions of the southwestern, southern, and central U.S. and along the mid-Atlantic seaboard. Some improvement is likely over Arkansas and sections of Virginia.
- Fuel Dryness: Dryness observed over Florida and the extreme southeast states during the winter will continue into the summer. Unusually dry areas with above normal significant fire potential will expand westward across New Mexico and northward in Arizona through spring.
The latest revision of the Drought Monitor was released yesterday by the U.S. Department of Agriculture:
