The Predictive Services section at the National Interagency Fire Center issued their National Wildland Significant Fire Potential Outlook for May through August, 2011. If this turns out to be accurate, it looks like it will be a quiet or average summer season for the United States, with the exception of portions of the southwest and Florida.
The primary factors influencing these outlooks are:
- La Niña: The ongoing La Niña influence is forecast to weaken through early summer of 2011 and return to neutral conditions.
- Drought: Drought will persist across portions of the southwestern U.S. with improvement expected over the southeastern U.S. and portions of Texas.
- Fuel Dryness: Dryness observed over Florida and the extreme southeast states during spring will diminish by June. Unusually dry areas with above normal significant fire potential will expand westward and northward across New Mexico and Arizona through the summer while easing through much of Texas.
(Click on the images to see larger versions.)
Here is the latest revision of the Drought Monitor released by the U.S. Department of Agriculture:
