Wildfire potential, November 2011 through February 2012

November wildfire outlook, 2011

The Predictive Services section at the National Interagency Fire Center has issued their National Wildland Significant Fire Potential Outlook for November, 2011 through February, 2012. According to their prediction, Texas will continue to experience “extreme to exceptional drought conditions”.

November wildfire outlook, 2011December - February wildfire outlook 2011-2012

The primary factors influencing these outlooks are:

La Niña: La Niña conditions continue to strengthen, approaching what would be considered a moderate event although not as strong as this time last year. Classic weather patterns of wet and cold in the northwest and warm and dry in the south are expected, although intensity of these cannot be directly correlated to the strength of La Niña.

Drought: Although significant rainfall has occurred across Oklahoma and Texas during the past month, extreme to exceptional drought conditions continue to persist in both states as well as parts of Louisiana, New Mexico, Arizona, Kansas and Arkansas. Extreme drought also persists across most of Georgia and parts of South Carolina and Alabama.

Fuel Dryness: Fuel conditions have improved significantly across the majority of the country. With weather trending toward winter time conditions and burning periods becoming the shortest of the year, fuel conditions are expected to continue to improve across the U.S. through December. In areas where drought persists fuels will likely begin to trend toward above normal dryness after the first of the year.

Temp-Prec outlook, Nov-Feb

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Author: Bill Gabbert

After working full time in wildland fire for 33 years, he continues to learn, and strives to be a Student of Fire.

2 thoughts on “Wildfire potential, November 2011 through February 2012”

  1. Here is prediction: The barometer is dropping like a rock in NorCal, a significant storm with rain and snow is predicted for the next few days. If the rain/snow doesn’t move over the “grape-vine” (south of Bakersfield) watch out SoCal, Santa Ana and his men will be blowing into town.

    1. Simple fire behavior and fire weather forecasting at it’s best… and simplest form.

      Pretty darn accurate assessment method… and no computers are required for verification or evaluation.


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