Monday the Predictive Services section at the National Interagency Fire Center issued their Wildland Fire Potential Outlook for July through October, 2013.
As you probably know, fire activity is high right now in Arizona and New Mexico. Here is NIFC’s prediction for July in the Southwest:
Significant wildland fire potential will remain above normal across much of Arizona and northwestern New Mexico in early July and slowly return to normal across the Area from east to west as the monsoon develops. The Area will remain normal from August through October.
July will bring an end to the typical fire season weather pattern and begin the transitions to a monsoonal pattern. In July, upper level high pressure will be in place over the Great Basin to begin the month which will allow most areas east of the divide to moisten up with higher humidity and areas of scattered wet storms during the first week of July. Moisture will lead to more lightning potential into Arizona during the first week or so of July until the upper high eventually settles far enough north and east to allow moisture intrusion through all of Arizona. As usual, moisture will develop from east to
west leaving northern and northwestern Arizona the last to return to normal around mid-July or shortly thereafter.
Below is the Executive Summary from the document:
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“July
- Long term drought across the West coupled with hot and dry weather in early July will nullify gains from recent precipitation and raise fire potential across portions of Oregon, Idaho, Nevada, and Northern California.
- Southern California, southern Utah, Arizona, New Mexico and Colorado will continue to experience extremely dry conditions and be at risk of significant fires.
- The East will remain moist with normal to slightly below normal temperatures through July.
August
- Heat and normal summer precipitation in the West will keep above normal fire potential across most of California and Oregon, and parts of Washington, Idaho, Montana and Nevada.
- Fire potential in the East will remain below normal along the Gulf and Atlantic coasts while returning to normal in the upper and mid-Mississippi, Ohio and Tennessee Valleys.
September and October
- Above normal significant fire potential will continue for much of coastal and interior California while returning to normal by October over the Sierras, Oregon, and parts of Idaho and Nevada.
- Below normal significant fire potential will remain across the Southeast Coast from Louisiana to Virginia. Parts of West Texas will also remain below normal.”
