The Predictive Services section at the National Interagency Fire Center has issued their Wildland Fire Potential Outlook for December, 2013 through March, 2014. If their prediction is correct there is nothing extraordinary ahead, except for reduced wildfire potential over much of the south. Here is their summary:
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The December 2013, January 2014 and February through March 2014, significant wildland fire potential forecasts included in this outlook represent the cumulative forecasts of the eleven Geographic Area Predictive Services Units and the National Predictive Services Unit.
December
- Below normal fire potential will continue from southern Texas to the Ohio Valley and the southern Appalachians. Short-term increases in fire activity are possible along the lower Atlantic Coast.
- There are no areas of above normal significant wildland fire potential for December.
January
- The Southeast will continue to see below normal significant wildland fire potential from East Texas to the Ohio Valley and the southern Appalachians.
- There are short-term fire concerns for Florida.
- There are no areas of above normal fire potential for December.
February through March
- Below normal fire potential will develop from the central Gulf to the Mid-Atlantic states.
- No areas of above normal significant wildland fire potential are expected for February or March.
Looks similar to last year… the only year that I fought fires every month (December through March). Started “fire season” in May with nearly 200 hours of overtime from the winter/spring.
I wonder if predictive services looks at the long term drought?
Still very dry here…. I guess we’ll see.