The Predictive Services section at the National Interagency Fire Center has issued their Wildland Fire Potential Outlook for January through April, 2014. If their prediction is correct there could be elevated wildfire potential in the San Francisco bay area in January and also in New Mexico and Texas in March and April. Here is their summary:
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“January
- Below normal significant wildland fire potential will for most of the southeastern U.S. except for far southern Florida and deep South Texas.
- Above normal significant wildland fire potential will affect the Bay Area of Northern California.
February
- The Southeast will continue to see below normal significant wildland fire potential along the coastal regions from Virginia to southeastern Texas.
- There are no areas of above normal fire potential for February.
March through April
- Part of the Southeast will continue to see below normal significant wildland fire potential across eastern Texas and Oklahoma, the lower and mid-Mississippi, and the Tennessee Valley.
- Above normal significant wildland fire potential will develop across eastern New Mexico and West Texas in March and April.”
(end of NIFC’s outlook)
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On December 31 the Predictive Services group at the North Zone Coordination Center in Redding, California issued a “Seasonal Outlook” for northern California and Hawaii, which is valid for the months of February through April. In a nutshell, they forecast normal “weather and fuel/fire potential” during the period.
Another Predictive Services group that apparently prefers to remain anonymous has issued a “Monthly/Seasonal Outlook” for January through April, 2014 for California, but does not say when it was prepared or issued. It includes a strange map of a portion of California that is difficult to interpret since it does not have any cities, roads, or counties, but it does have some unidentified boundaries of some sort. While it is not clear, the document appears to be an outlook for the entire state. If so, then the northern California report above is a duplication, except that it also included Hawaii.
As we have stated before, technical reports and outlooks that are decision support tools need to indicate the date it was issued, and which office and personnel analyzed and compiled the information. The one for Northern California does, and even lists the names of the subject matter experts who worked on the report. Good job, Basil Newmerzhycky and John Snook.
01/05/2014 0930 CA-LNF Campbell Fire: 435 acres, 35% contained.
01/05/2014 0930 CA-HUU Red Fire: 250 acres, 20% contained.
Name: Red Fire
County: Humboldt County
Location: South of Berry Summit, West of Willow Creek
Administrative Unit: CAL FIRE Humboldt Del-Norte Unit
Acres Burned – Containment: 100 acres – 20% contained
Date Started: January 4, 2014 12:00 pm
Last update: January 4, 2014 6:40 pm
01/04/2014 1200
CA-HUU Red Fire: 15 acres burning in timber and slash. 0% contained, slow to moderate rate of spread. Fire is east of Willow Creek.
01/04/2014 1030
CA-HUU Bridge Fire: 18 acres burning in Oak woodland, 75% contained. Fire is near the Community of Bridgeville.
01/04/2014 0600
CA-LNF Campbell Fire: 175 acres, 50% contained.
Another “Fire Weather Watch” for portions of Los Angeles and Ventura counties in California most likely turning to Red Flag Warnings tomorrow… and a “near” Red Flag discussion for areas of NWS Monterey and NWS Hanford,
Intersesting fire burning on the Lassen NF in NorCal that should be under a snowpack right now….
So… is “predictive services” a valuable product?
Campbell Fire, 175 acres inaccessible and rough. Structures ahead of fire about a mile and a half. Two Cal Fire air tankers and two Cal Fire helicopters, plus six or eight Cal Fire crews. Fire is on the Lassen N.F. Feds are looking for a couple of type I copters. Wind event two days out. We still have time for a rainy season to get started. If this approaching system doesn’t do much the storm window will close again, for who knows how long?
Johnny… agree. The “predictive services” products are very unreliable.
Dispatchers and meteorologists making predictions without the EXPERT analysis of wildland firefighters, fire behavior analysts, and fuels specialists providing input on known “corporate knowledge”.
Most forecasts and predictions are based on monetary predictions rather than actual fire severity or potential for increased or above normal fire activity.
Gorda Rat… 1985.
Thanks, where did I get Gorda Rat? Old age. Lightening strikes on Marble Peak and Cone Peak arrived shortly after they started, almost sunset. Didn’t appear to have too much potential, on top of the ridge. A fire at the confluence of the Big Sur and Little Sur was about ten acres mid slope. We (B 17 T19) and a C119 from Minden dropped on that fire as the sun had already set. The retardant held that evening until a crew walked in. Never made the Gorda Rat. Like I mentioned, I hope I’m wrong on this long range weather guess. Sure need the rain/snow.
My small company (David) and the large crystal ball folks at NIFC (Goliath) couldn’t be further apart. I hope that I loose this battle. We are showing a weather pattern like 1977 (Ca. Marble Cone & Gorda Rat) among many others. Dry, dangerous and destructive for California and Western Nevada. Today Jan. 2nd we are WIND EVENT event away from start of fire season 2014.