Fire weather outlook, August 14 through 17, 2014

Upper level low centered over OR/WA will continue to weaken over the next few days, before finally drifting northeast into Canada by the weekend. Conditions should gradually improve as thunderstorms become less numerous across the Pacific northwest on Thurs and even less on Fri. Moisture has become abundant around the low and with that, storm modes are expected to be mainly wet. Warm and dry conditions, with an isolated dry thunderstorm threat is possible Thurs across central MT. As the system drifts northeast across portions of MT on Fri, heavy rains are possible across E MT. Other scattered storms across the state are possible through Sat with mainly wet storm modes expected. No widespread critical fire conditions expected.

High pressure is already building into portions of CA, in the wake of the low. Dry, hot, but calm conditions have developed across much of CA and will continue to build north and eastward into OR/WA/NV/ID into the weekend. Temperatures will be above average for much of the western US Sat and Sun and into early next week. Some isolated pockets of breezy conditions are possible in central ID and MT, however, no widespread wind events are expected.

Long term, another upper level low makes an attempt to push onshore to OR/CA early next week. Not overly confident of any widespread thunderstorm activity at this time, though a few storms over higher terrain of north CA Mon and Tues are possible. There are hints at a larger pattern change for mid-week next week which will need to be watched for a possible wind event.

Weather Highlights:

MT: A few dry thunderstorms across portions of central MT Thurs with hot and dry conditions present. Heavy rain possible across eastern MT on Fri, otherwise scattered storms across much of the state. Warming and drying out Sun.

CA: Above average temperatures with dry conditions.

OR: Some showers and wet thunderstorms Thurs. A few lingering showers/storms north on Fri. Drying gradually from south to north, with increasing temperatures.

ID/WA: Scattered showers and wet thunderstorms through Sat, gradually waning and drying out from south to north through the period. Localized breezy conditions Sat/Sun.

WY: Becoming very warm Sat/Sun with breezy conditions.


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