Report: wildfires pose risk to nearly 900,000 homes in the western U.S.

From CoreLogic:

Nearly 900,000 single-family homes across 13 states in the western U.S. are currently designated at “High” or “Very High” risk for wildfire damage, representing a combined total reconstruction value estimated at more than $237 billion. Of the total homes identified, just over 192,000 homes fall into the “Very High Risk” category alone, with total reconstruction cost valued at more than $49.6 billion.

The CoreLogic Wildfire Risk analysis designates risk levels as “Very High,” “High,” “Moderate” and “Low.” Two additional categories, “Urban” and “Agriculture” indicate homes at even lower risk. Homes designated as “Urban” are located in areas with a dense concentration of buildings and infrastructure to such an extent that little natural vegetation exists to support a wildfire. Homes designated as “Agriculture” are located in areas comprised of row crops, orchards/vineyards or other specific land use that is typically irrigated. Even if it is not irrigated, the crops are nourished and healthy with no ground litter present, and therefore, the vegetation is unlikely to support or enhance a wildfire.

The analysis also assigns a numeric risk score to each property, ranging from 1 to 100. This separate score indicates the level of susceptibility to wildfire, as well as the risk associated with the property being located in close proximity to another high-risk property or area. The score designation is important since wildfire can easily expand to adjacent properties and cause significant damage even if that property was not originally considered high risk. When expanding the analysis to include the numeric score, more than 1.1 million homes fall under the highest Wildfire Risk Score segment (81-100), representing a combined potential reconstruction value of more than $268.5 billion

Total U.S. Properties at Risk and Reconstruction Values by Risk Category

Wildfire Risk Level	Total Properties	Reconstruction Cost
Very High	192,242	$49,608,484,867
High	704,860	$187,661,388,760
Moderate	1,351,313	$292,811,373,342
Low	1,378,104	$334,120,053,463
Agriculture	993,580	$244,167,729,666
Urban	23,778,799	$6,094,873,170,789
Total:	28,398,898	$7,203,242,200,887

Total U.S. Properties at Risk and Reconstruction Values by Numeric Risk Score

(1-100)	Total Properties	Reconstruction Cost
81-100	1,101,131	$268,549,008,333
61-80	1,193,814	$338,395,410,748
51-60	487,013	$131,081,392,801
1-50	25,616,940	$6,465,216,389,005
Total:	28,398,898	$7,203,242,200,887

The states most commonly associated with wildfires also contain the most properties at risk – California, Colorado and Texas have the largest number of residential properties categorized as “Very High Risk,” with a combined reconstruction value exceeding $36 billion. Including homes located in the “High Risk” category, the reconstruction value is more than $188 billion for these three states. When analyzed by risk score, 816,515 homes with reconstruction costs valued at more than $206.5 billion fall into the highest risk segment of 81-100.

Limiting the evaluation to property-level risk strictly in the “Very High” category, California tops the list of states analyzed with a total of 50,905 homes falling into that group. Comparatively, when assigning the Wildfire Risk Score, Texas takes the top spot with 451,848 homes scoring in the 81-100 highest-risk range.

Total Properties at Risk by State and Risk Category

State	Low	Moderate	High	Very High	Agriculture	Urban	Total
AZ	43,273	4,443	8,488	8,089	5,332	1,910,771	1,980,396
CA	221,104	169,468	255,023	50,905	146,013	8,208,625	9,051,138
CO	70,935	38,628	50,009	49,667	66,876	1,482,352	1,758,467
ID	37,352	22,968	15,197	11,078	86,542	384,018	557,155
MT	60,588	18,903	9,601	10,218	22,516	194,927	316,753
NV	17,845	20,520	8,653	281	3,166	816,975	867,440
NM	55,969	19,554	25,766	9,481	16,200	483,282	610,252
OK	165,009	88,642	187	0	33,225	968,210	1,255,273
OR	37,137	41,160	51,872	13,788	157,749	938,664	1,240,370
TX	332,766	829,457	261,855	35,016	175,691	5,960,221	7,595,006
UT	11,185	13,590	3,441	68	31,825	681,016	741,125
WA	308,066	72,069	12,509	1,997	219,334	1,625,394	2,239,369
WY	16,875	11,911	2,259	1,654	29,111	124,344	186,154
Total	1,378,104	1,351,313	704,860	192,242	993,580	23,778,799	28,398,898

Total Properties at Risk by State and Numerical Risk Score

State	1-50	51-60	61-80	81-100	Total
AZ	1,919,351	14,308	27,159	19,578	1,980,396
CA	8,286,708	133,654	367,457	263,319	9,051,138
CO	1,454,787	52,823	122,509	128,348	1,758,467
ID	476,310	9,554	27,868	43,423	557,155
MT	243,990	13,114	27,301	32,348	316,753
NV	848,682	2,337	9,184	7,237	867,440
NM	523,755	14,487	32,139	39,871	610,252
OK	1,250,888	1,431	2,219	735	1,255,273
OR	1,091,300	22,616	46,655	79,799	1,240,370
TX	6,458,363	197,548	487,247	451,848	7,595,006
UT	693,256	14,713	24,311	8,845	741,125
WA	2,192,567	8,662	17,001	21,139	2,239,369
WY	176,983	1,766	2,764	4,641	186,154
Total	25,616,940	487,013	1,193,814	1,101,131	28,398,898

Reconstruction Values by State and Numerical Risk Score

State	1-50	51-60	61-80	81-100
AZ	$369,191,090,202	$2,781,562,044	$5,612,822,008	$4,002,789,607
CA	$2,785,871,424,591	$53,258,974,686	$153,067,995,013	$88,448,970,333
CO	$333,552,521,110	$13,769,558,737	$33,846,313,158	$36,107,351,913
ID	$102,894,072,845	$2,426,687,082	$6,899,872,812	$10,300,994,948
MT	$52,685,950,526	$2,997,541,855	$6,338,603,322	$7,639,941,924
NV	$216,436,292,731	$624,126,373	$3,860,921,144	$3,188,829,537
NM	$105,891,175,664	$3,334,262,905	$7,919,619,903	$10,468,473,653
OK	$230,716,181,496	$235,452,854	$370,084,424	$124,431,936
OR	$248,596,738,298	$5,247,235,235	$11,061,921,922	$18,192,420,905
TX	$1,276,614,038,497	$39,753,699,730	$97,535,512,589	$82,027,014,100
UT	$159,359,659,455	$4,309,214,977	$7,363,299,947	$2,115,609,007
WA	$547,066,785,312	$1,964,631,216	$3,905,374,051	$4,938,186,894
WY	$36,340,458,278	$378,445,107	$613,070,455	$993,993,576
Total	$6,465,216,389,005	$131,081,392,801	$338,395,410,748	$268,549,008,333

At the CBSA (Core Based Statistical Area) level, Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, Colo. ranks first for the most number of homes at “Very High” risk out of the 258 CBSAs analyzed. Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, Calif. comes in a close second, followed by Sacramento-Roseville-Arden-Arcade, Calif.

When ranking CBSAs based on Wildfire Risk Score, Riverside-San-Bernardino-Ontario, Calif. takes the top spot for the most number of homes that fall under the highest risk segment of 81-100, followed by Sacramento-Roseville-Arden-Arcade, Calif. and Austin-Round Rock, Texas.

Top 10 CBSAs Ranked by Homes at Very High Risk

CBSA	Very High # Homes	Home Reconstruction Value
Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO	17,860	$5,358,513,217
Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA	14,249	$4,233,998,840
Sacramento-Roseville-Arden-Arcade, CA	9,698	$3,351,781,562
Bend-Redmond, OR	9,128	$2,328,466,791
Colorado Springs, CO	7,296	$2,086,189,220
Durango, CO	6,052	$1,776,710,340
Fort Collins, CO	4,609	$903,336,600
Truckee-Grass Valley, CA	4,569	$1,430,020,245
Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX	4,219	$917,157,644
Flagstaff, AZ	4,109	$753,176,500

Top 10 CBSAs Ranked by Numerical Risk Score

CBSA	81-100 Risk Score	Home Reconstruction Value
Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA	50,605	$14,805,549,511
Sacramento–Roseville–Arden-Arcade, CA	42,042	$15,875,023,943
Austin-Round Rock, TX	35,807	$9,019,956,767
Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO	35,174	$10,807,628,461
San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX	31,350	$7,097,211,479
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA	17,006	$8,654,562,030
Chico, CA	15,103	$3,754,593,902
Colorado Springs, CO	14,990	$4,408,080,237
Truckee-Grass Valley, CA	14,671	$4,945,547,724
Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX	14,092	$3,063,417,604

*Additional CBSA-level data may be available upon request.

To enhance accuracy, this CoreLogic wildfire analysis has been expanded from prior annual analyses to encompass additional categories of single-family residential structures including mobile homes, duplexes, manufactured homes and cabins, among other non-traditional home types. The values represent estimates of reconstruction costs, taking into account labor and materials, and are based on 100-percent or total destruction of the residential structure. Depending upon the size of the wildfire, there may be less than 100-percent damage to the residence, which would result in a lower realized reconstruction cost.