Red Flag Warnings or Fire Weather Watches have been issued for areas in Montana, North Dakota, Nebraska, Wyoming, Colorado, Minnesota, Iowa, Missouri, and South Dakota on Saturday.
Interestingly, after our discussion on March 12 about the two different versions of NWS Red Flag Warning maps, and how the one at the site illustrated above did not show Red Flag areas that went into effect later in the same day, today’s map, above, shows an area in North Dakota as Red Flag even though it does not go into effect for another three hours, at 1 p.m. CDT today. Which is what they should do. The forecasters should not expect land managers and firefighters to have to visit their site every hour or two to determine if they are under a Red Flag Warning. You should be able to visit the site just once a day to see the warning areas.
The map was current as of 9 a.m. MDT on Saturday. Red Flag Warnings can change throughout the day as the National Weather Service offices around the country update and revise their forecasts. For the most current data visit this NWS site or this NWS site.
Hi Bill,
According to the Rocky Mountain Area Fire Weather Operating Plan, a Red Flag Warning can be issued up to 24 hours in advance of the expected onset of the Red Flag conditions. Similarly, a Fire Weather Watch can be issued from 18-96 hours ahead of the expected conditions.
I do understand where you are coming from here with regards to the map products but I would suggest that the users of these products read the warning text to fully understand when the Red Flag Warning is valid. A quick look at a color-coded map is not a sufficient way to retrieve the important weather information. Within the text of the Red Flag Warnings themselves they do state when they are valid, where they are valid for, and what types of conditions are expected.
Red Flag conditions can be predicted with great certainty with a one-day (24 hour) lead time. These are conditions that are typically larger in scale than other atmospheric phenomena and the weather models we use operate very well within these scales. If we can forecast the conditions with ample certainty a day ahead of time, I hope that the forecaster would go ahead and issue a longer lead-time warning. This definitely helps with preparation and general situational awareness.
Unfortunately, a quick look at a nation-wide map doesn’t provide ample information to make any kind of operational decisions. The devil is in the detail and the Red Flag Warning text provides that necessary detail.
Cheers,
Darren Clabo
Thanks Darren. I see what you’re saying, but my point is, when the map shows no warning for an area in which an actual warning begins in an hour or two, there is no prompt on the map to “read the warning text”. In that case the map does more harm than good, providing no clue that a warning is eminent. If you always have to check another source to determine if there is a warning for a particular area, the map then becomes useless.
The map should trigger the viewer, when seeing that a warning is in effect, to then seek and read the text of the warning. Not the opposite.
Here’s an example. Let’s say I am a rancher in Montana. I don’t have the luxury of someone reading the fire weather forecast to me once or twice a day over a radio, and I don’t have time to check multiple web sites. I just want to know if there is a Red Flag warning for my area so I can be careful operating my farm equipment. I go to the site, and it shows no warning areas in my state. So I assume there will be none for Montana for the rest of the day unless the forecast completely changes, surprising the forecasters. But, an hour later, the map shows the whole state as red, with a warning in effect. The warning was forecast 24 hours before, but the policies of the warning web site is not to show any warning area until it actually comes into effect. So even though I felt good about being responsible enough to check the warning web site, I was unaware that in the afternoon a Red Flag Warning was in effect.
I find it odd that the argument is being “informed” about a red flag warning. Don’t you all believe that a stand up land manager should be watching the weather for days prior and be capable of predicting “fire weather” conditions in their own local area. Yeah sure, maps look pretty to the public, but I know LAL’s of 6 with gusty and erratic winds may produce new starts and put me on edge, or same with RH’s of 25% and high dispersions . It all depends on your geographic area.
Isn’t this a reliability issue, not only with mapping, but the ability of a local land manager to be able to know their local area?
Second, cross hatches and such…. Isn’t that exactly the point of a “watch” on NWS lingo. Conditions are being monitored and being watched because they may approach criteria?? Or they haven’t quite hit criteria and are borderline??
Why should a land manager need a website to tell them these issues??
Just my two cents
In my case, I read the Fire Weather for my zone and the adjoining zones every day. I glance at the map for information about other areas that may have a delayed impact on me.
Completely different use between a Fire Weather Forecast and a Red Flag Warning Map.
But I’m not a Land Manager, merely an emergency responder.
Sorry to disagree, Bill
Pilots are required to check weather (VFR or IFR) could very well be on a 1-6 basis or more often
SOO…why would we not expect land managers to check back every couple of hours?
It seems very apparent, that the last 5 or so years, that land manager have not paid much attention to forecasts when the Rx fires have gone to escaped fire analysis.
SA is always what we are lectured about in the EM and wildland fire world.
NWS and NOAA folks do as much or better job as Predictive Services at NIFC and saying managers should visit a site once a day, puts into question the LMA manager understand of changing WX dynamics by possibly encouraging only once a day visit might be equal to saying…..”we “gots” more important to do than monitor Fire Weather Warning and Watches
Sorry , Bill this is where I differ with you and NWS is providing those Fire Weather Watches and Warnings are there for a reason for BOTH citizens and LMA’s desiring to touch one off.
Without saying it……NWS / NOAA is saying “Only YOU can prevent range and forest fires!!”
What I wrote was strictly about forecasts for Red Flag Warnings:
Red Flag Warnings are usually forecast quite a few hours in advance. It would be very easy for the web site managers that have Red Flag maps to include information about areas that WILL be under a Red Flag warning in a few hours. Very easy. There is no reason why a firefighter should have to check a Red Flag map many times a day to see if the website has been updated with information that might have been available for 12 to 24 hours, but was not shown on the map until the actual warning came into effect. Like in the example in the article above, the warning period would not begin for three hours, but the web site managers correctly showed it on the map.
Web site managers for Red Flag maps have three choices:
1. Don’t show a Red Flag area until the warning period actually begins, which can lead firefighters to incorrectly believe their area is not under a warning.
2. If an area will be under a warning anytime that day, show it as red for the entire day. If they want, firefighters can go to a plethora of other sites to get more information about that warning.
3. Like Gordie said in a comment on the other article about this subject, “Maybe if they were crosshatched for a Warning or Watch that is predicted to become effective?”
A general weather forecast for fire weather is a different subject.