The Predictive Services section at the National Interagency Fire Center issued their Wildland Fire Potential Outlook through January, 2016. The data represents the cumulative forecasts of the ten Geographic Area Predictive Services Units and the National Predictive Services Unit.
If their forecasts are accurate, the only areas with above normal wildfire potential during that period will be in California and Minnesota.
Here are the highlights from their outlook.
October
- Significant fire potential has reduced to normal fall conditions across most of the areas where fire activity concerns were prevalent through September.
- Above normal significant fire potential will continue across central and southern California due to continued drought and dry fuels. Central portions of the state will return to normal by the end of the month.
- Northwestern Minnesota will see short term elevated significant fire potential through October.
- Portions of the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys, Puerto Rico and the Hawaiian Islands will see below normal conditions.
- Elsewhere normal fall conditions will prevail.
November
- The remainder of the above normal potential will return to normal by the end of November in California.
- Portions of the Southeastern U.S., Hawaiian Islands and Puerto Rico will continue to see below normal potential.
- Normal conditions are expected elsewhere.
December, 2015 and January, 2016
- Portions of the Southeastern U.S., Hawaiian Islands and Puerto Rico will continue to see below normal potential.
- Normal conditions are expected elsewhere.
(end of Fire Potential report)
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Below is the Drought Monitor analysis
Precipitation, departure from normal
The map below shows the how the amount of precipitation recorded during September, 2015 departed from normal for that period.
