After working full time in wildland fire for 33 years, he continues to learn, and strives to be a Student of Fire.
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3 thoughts on “Update on wildfire smoke, November 13, 2016”
My mother lives in Dillard, GA. How close is the fire to Dillard tonight? Is I’d likely that she will need to evacuate?
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Your articles on the TN/NC wildfires indicate the culprit of these fires are the dry conditions and that thse are the primary causes. I think this is misleading, no matter how dry the conditions there must be a source of ignition. It should be pointed out the expected causes of these fires which as I understand a good number of them arson is a suspected cause. Campfires, debris burning, discarded smoking materials, etc. Most areas have not had rain or lightning.
…Fire behavior on the fires continues to be extreme. The Energy Release Component percentiles are above the 90th percentile throughout the region and many areas are setting record high values for this time of year. The 1,000 hour time-lag fuel moistures are below the third percentile. The Keetch-Byram Drought Index values are above the 97th percentile.
And, during this period of unusually dry weather, crews and engines continue to be in short supply and in very high demand.
In order for any fire to ignite three things must be present in adequate quantity and quality: heat, fuel, and oxygen. Then, after a wildland fire ignites there are also three criteria that determine how it will burn (called “fire behavior” by wildland firefighters): fuel (again), weather, and topography.
On November 11 I wrote about the condition of the fuel (vegetation), which is near historic extremes — very, very, very dry. This means that if the weather when a fire ignites is conducive to rapid fire spread, and the fuels are near historic extremes, it can spread rapidly, depending also, on the topography and the firefighting resources available to attempt to suppress the fires.
As a person who has spent most of his life being a student of wildland fire, I know that the occurrence of a large fire, or many large fires, are the result of a complex interaction of numerous factors. If the weather and fuels had not been so dry over the last several weeks, the fires that may have been ignited by these idiots would not have shown so much resistance to control and would not have grown so rapidly.
My mother lives in Dillard, GA. How close is the fire to Dillard tonight? Is I’d likely that she will need to evacuate?
Your articles on the TN/NC wildfires indicate the culprit of these fires are the dry conditions and that thse are the primary causes. I think this is misleading, no matter how dry the conditions there must be a source of ignition. It should be pointed out the expected causes of these fires which as I understand a good number of them arson is a suspected cause. Campfires, debris burning, discarded smoking materials, etc. Most areas have not had rain or lightning.
Here is what I wrote on November 11, 2016:
In order for any fire to ignite three things must be present in adequate quantity and quality: heat, fuel, and oxygen. Then, after a wildland fire ignites there are also three criteria that determine how it will burn (called “fire behavior” by wildland firefighters): fuel (again), weather, and topography.
On November 11 I wrote about the condition of the fuel (vegetation), which is near historic extremes — very, very, very dry. This means that if the weather when a fire ignites is conducive to rapid fire spread, and the fuels are near historic extremes, it can spread rapidly, depending also, on the topography and the firefighting resources available to attempt to suppress the fires.
As a person who has spent most of his life being a student of wildland fire, I know that the occurrence of a large fire, or many large fires, are the result of a complex interaction of numerous factors. If the weather and fuels had not been so dry over the last several weeks, the fires that may have been ignited by these idiots would not have shown so much resistance to control and would not have grown so rapidly.