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Santa Ana Wildfire Threat Index in SoCal this week, “Moderate”

Author Bill GabbertPosted on Categories UncategorizedTags
Santa Ana Threat Index
The fire threat for four areas in southern California on October 24 and 25 is described as “Moderate”. This example is for the Los Angeles and Ventura areas, showing Threat Level, Wind Strength, and Fuel Moisture on Thursday October 24.

A wildland fire danger forecasting tool called the Santa Ana Wildfire Threat Index (SAWTI) is categorizing the fire threat from the strong winds predicted for Thursday and Friday of this week in southern California as “Moderate”. This includes Los Angeles, Ventura, Orange County, Inland Empire, and San Diego. The Santa Barbara area is shown as “no rating” for this week. Most other tools for predicting fire danger would use a stronger adjective for the predicted conditions.

The SAWTI uses a predictive model that includes wind strength, dead fuel moisture, live fuel moisture, atmospheric moisture, and the greenness of annual grasses to create a daily threat assessment of the fuel conditions across Southern California. The output is then compared to climatological data and historical fire occurrence to establish the index rating. It does not assess conditions in the central or northern part of the state.

The SAWTI is a product of the US Forest Service and Predictive Services, according to the website dedicated to the tool. The site does not specify which of the numerous Predictive Services  and Forest Service offices are involved.

Red Flag Warnings
Red Flag Warnings, produced at 6:30 a.m. PDT October 23, 2019. Times are CDT.

For northern California the forecast on Thursday and Friday is for north to northeast winds of 15 to 30 mph gusting at 35 to 45 with humidity in the teens. For southern California: northeast winds of 20 to 40 gusting up to 65 with humidity in the single digits. These predicted numbers vary depending on the exact location.

(Red Flag Warnings can be modified throughout the day as NWS offices around the country update and revise their weather forecasts.)

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Author: Bill Gabbert

After working full time in wildland fire for 33 years, he continues to learn, and strives to be a Student of Fire.

2 thoughts on “Santa Ana Wildfire Threat Index in SoCal this week, “Moderate””

  1. Yea I agree with you Bill. I think he and or she is being very conservative on the rating for this event. Another source I check in with is SDGE planned power outage web page.
    So far they have not “planned” or indicated on their map any public safety outage locations…yet.
    We will see how this shakes out tomorrow. Stay tuned….

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  2. Thanks Gabbert.

    Reading this made me miss Tom Rolinski’s Conference Presentations.

    I hope he had a good first year with the electric co.

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