The National Significant Wildland Fire Potential Outlook issued November 1 by the Predictive Services section at the National Interagency Fire Center predicts wildfire potential will remain above normal in parts of California through November. The potential in the Southern Plains is likely to be above normal December through February.
The data from NIFC shown here represents the cumulative forecasts of the ten Geographic Area Predictive Services Units and the National Predictive Services Unit.
- An excerpt from the NIFC narrative report for the next several months;
- More of NIFC’s monthly graphical outlooks;
- NOAA’s three-month temperature and precipitation forecasts;
- Drought Monitor;
- Keetch-Byram Drought Index.
“La Niña and current fuel conditions are the main drivers of significant fire potential through fall and winter. Drought conditions are expected to continue for much of California, the Great Basin, and the Southwest into the winter with drying expected to increase across portions of the southern Plains and Southeast. Offshore wind events will continue to be a concern across northern California in November and likely into December for southern California. Significant fire potential is forecast to be above normal in downslope and offshore wind favored locations in California during November. The focus will shift to southern California in December as precipitation is likely to quell large fire concerns across northern California by then.
“Over the winter, the expected warming and drying trend across the southern tier of the United States due to La Niña and other large-scale climate forcing will likely result in above normal significant fire potential in portions of the southern Plains. Drought intensification and expansion from the southern Plains into southern California is likely. Strong wind and low relative humidity events could occasionally increase fire activity in portions of the Great Basin and Southwest this fall into winter as well. However, outside of the southern Plains, significant fire potential will likely remain near normal for the rest of the United States.”