Forecast for smoke from Arizona’s Tussock Fire

Tussock Fire smoke plume May 10
Tussock Fire predicted smoke plume. May 10. Arizona Department of Environmental Quality.

The Arizona Department of Environmental Quality expects that smoke from the Tussock Fire will generally disperse to the east Monday and Tuesday. The fire is 27 air miles northwest of the northern Phoenix suburbs.

Below is their prediction issued at 9:47 a.m. on Monday May 10, 2021:

“[Monday] is expected to be another windy day, with south-southwest winds in the 10-20 mph range. Smoke is forecast to rise and disperse toward the east-northeast. Smoke may move over Camp Verde, Payson, and Winslow; however, smoke is expected to be elevated off the ground. Some smoke may drop down the backside of the Bradshaws Mountains this afternoon and into Bumble Bee, Cordes Lakes, Cleator, and Mayer, but impacts are expected to be short-lived.

“[Tuesday], as high pressure builds into the region, smoke is forecast to rise and disperse toward the east-southeast, with some smoke moving over the far north portion of the Phoenix Valley. This smoke is expected to be elevated well off the ground, so not forecasting any smoke impacts to the Valley. With that said, Anthem, New River, and Cave Creek may briefly smell smoke, especially in the late evening on Tuesday.”

The forecast below for Arizona is for 6 p.m. MDT May 10, 2021, produced by NOAA.

Smoke Forecast, 6 p.m. MDT May 10, 2021 Arizona Tussock Fire
Smoke Forecast for Arizona, 6 p.m. MDT May 10, 2021. NOAA.

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Author: Bill Gabbert

After working full time in wildland fire for 33 years, he continues to learn, and strives to be a Student of Fire.

3 thoughts on “Forecast for smoke from Arizona’s Tussock Fire”

  1. A retired fire-fighter neighbor, in Oregon, told me had to go to the ER 7 times during his career to get injections of something (epinephrine ?) to deal with swelling from breathing smoke that contained burned Poison Oak.

    It causes breathing passages to swell shut, sometimes.

    I’m curious what personal experience, or research, people have about wildfire smoke in different parts of the country.

    1. Summer, 1960, as a rookie PFT USNPS park ranger stationed on Lookout Mtn., TN., fought a multi-day long wildland fire on flanks of mtn., as part of Chick-Chatt. NMP crew. Nightfall found us in a mess of (unseen) poison oak and ivy, interwtined amongst trees/brush. (Cut my teeth 1957-1960 as WFF at San Carlos Apache Res., AZ., and Mesa Verde NP, CO., so was not a newbie fireline grunt). Released next day at oh-dark thirty, with labored breathing, on my first of two lieu days. Exposed skin revealed light, itchy rash. Mid-morning telecon from chief ranger advised multiple crew members reported similar symptoms from probable poison vine family, and to report to ER for eppie shot, which I did. Breathing got better, calamine lotion did in the rash (eventually!). Lesson learned… Ross Hopkins (42 years on the greenblood roster, 1957-2000) Semper Fi!

  2. Can I take this to mean Crown King is not in great danger now or is the wind driving the fire towards us? I just want to be prepared. I live in the bowl in north center of Crown King bowl.


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