As we enter what are usually two of the busiest months of the wildland fire season in the West, the forecast for wildland fire potential issued July 1 by the National Interagency Fire Center predicts that California and virtually the entire northwest one-quarter of the United States will have above normal fire potential in July and August.
The data from NIFC shown here represents the cumulative forecasts of the ten Geographic Area Predictive Services Units and the National Predictive Services Unit.
Below:
- An excerpt from the NIFC narrative report for the next several months;
- Additional NIFC monthly graphical outlooks;
- NOAA’s three-month temperature and precipitation forecasts;
- Drought Monitor;
- Keetch-Byram Drought Index.
“Drought expanded and intensified over the West with more than 90% of the West now in drought. More than half of the West is in the highest two categories of drought. Numerous all-time record high temperatures were set in the Pacific Northwest, northern Great Basin, and Northern Rockies at the end of June as part of a historical heat wave. The first surge of monsoonal moisture arrived in the Southwest, Colorado, and southern Great Basin during the last few days of June.
“Climate outlooks indicate warmer than normal conditions are likely for much of the CONUS, especially the West, through summer. Much of the Rockies and the northern half of the West are also likely to have drier than normal conditions through September. Near normal precipitation is likely with the Southwest Monsoon in July, which should help alleviate drought conditions and significant fire activity, but drought is likely to expand and intensify across much of the West through the summer.
“Much of the Southern Area is likely to have below normal significant fire potential through the summer with mostly near normal significant fire potential in Eastern Area and Alaska into fall. Above normal significant fire potential is likely to remain in portions of northern Minnesota into August.
“Above normal significant fire potential will expand northward into the Great Basin and Rocky Mountain Geographic Areas through August with areas closer to the monsoon likely returning to near normal significant fire potential in July and August. Most of the Pacific Northwest, Northern Rockies, and northern Great Basin are expected to have above normal significant fire potential in July and August with areas beginning to return to normal significant fire potential in September and October. Most of the mountains and foothills in California are forecast to have above normal significant fire potential through September with areas prone to offshore winds retaining above normal potential through October. Leeside locations, saddles, and divides in Hawaii are likely to have above normal significant fire potential into October.”
