In a week that has delivered wild thunderstorms along the northern coastlines of eastern Australia, a cyclone across the Top End, and the first Catastrophic fire warning for the southern Australia bushfire season, the latest bushfire outlook for Australia brings a mixed bag of fire and weather warnings.

The AFAC Seasonal Bushfire Outlook for Summer 2025 released today identifies an increased risk of fire for south-west Victoria, western and southern Western Australia and parts of central northern New South Wales.

It comes despite the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) declaring a La Niña event officially active in the Pacific for the first time since 2023, which often brings wetter conditions across much of Australia.

But the BoM is predicting this La Niña to be relatively weak, and maybe short-lived, allowing plenty of summer to be primed for fire. The Indian Ocean Dipole is negative but expected to return to neutral in December.

Long term rainfall deficiencies persist over the high-risk areas, combined with abundant surface fuels, raising the fire risk for the hotter months.

The Bureau of Meteorology reports that for much of Australia, the forecast for December to February rainfall is weak, meaning there is roughly an equal chance of above or below average rainfall. Chances of above average rainfall have generally decreased, with a dry signal now more pronounced for December.

The sea surface temperatures around much of the Australian coastline are above average, providing more moisture and energy for severe storms and weather systems. December to February is likely to experience above average daytime temperatures for most of Australia, with overnight temperatures expected to be warmer almost nationwide.

Things have heated up quickly in New South Wales this past week with dangerous fire conditions across central and northern parts of the state where grasslands have the potential to support intense, fast-moving fires. Dozens of schools closed on Wednesday as hot, dry weather brought on a catastrophic fire danger rating.