The Predictive Services section at the National Interagency Fire Center has issued their Wildland Fire Potential Outlook for January through April, 2014. If their prediction is correct there could be elevated wildfire potential in the San Francisco bay area in January and also in New Mexico and Texas in March and April. Here is their summary:

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“January

• Below normal significant wildland fire potential will for most of the southeastern U.S. except for far southern Florida and deep South Texas.
• Above normal significant wildland fire potential will affect the Bay Area of Northern California.

February

• The Southeast will continue to see below normal significant wildland fire potential along the coastal regions from Virginia to southeastern Texas.
• There are no areas of above normal fire potential for February.

March through April

• Part of the Southeast will continue to see below normal significant wildland fire potential across eastern Texas and Oklahoma, the lower and mid-Mississippi, and the Tennessee Valley.
• Above normal significant wildland fire potential will develop across eastern New Mexico and West Texas in March and April.”

(end of NIFC’s outlook)

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On December 31 the Predictive Services group at the North Zone Coordination Center in Redding, California issued a “Seasonal Outlook” for northern California and Hawaii, which is valid for the months of February through April. In a nutshell, they forecast normal “weather and fuel/fire potential” during the period.

Another Predictive Services group that apparently prefers to remain anonymous has issued a “Monthly/Seasonal Outlook” for January through April, 2014 for California, but does not say when it was prepared or issued. It includes a strange map of a portion of California that is difficult to interpret since it does not have any cities, roads, or counties, but it does have some unidentified boundaries of some sort. While it is not clear, the document appears to be an outlook for the entire state. If so, then the northern California report above is a duplication, except that it also included Hawaii.

As we have stated before, technical reports and outlooks that are decision support tools need to indicate the date it was issued, and which office and personnel analyzed and compiled the information. The one for Northern California does, and even lists the names of the subject matter experts who worked on the report. Good job, Basil Newmerzhycky and John Snook.