UPDATED at 5:30 p.m. PDT, April 29, 2014:
We have updated information from the National Weather Service about the wind event in southern California that is now predicted to last into Thursday.
1:14 PM PDT TUE APR 29 2014
RED FLAG WARNING FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY EVENING…
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST COAST COMBINED WITH OFFSHORE FLOW FROM SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL BRING MUCH HIGHER TEMPERATURES AND VERY LOW HUMIDITIES WITH POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES THROUGH THURSDAY. THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO BRING PERIODS OF STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS NEAR THE COASTAL MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND ADJACENT INLAND AREAS…WITH STRONGEST GUSTS TO AROUND 85 MPH WEDNESDAY MORNING. MODERATE STRENGTH AND LESS WIDESPREAD NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY WITH EVEN WEAKER WINDS INTO FRIDAY.
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(Originally published at 8:30 a.m. PDT, April 29, 2014. Updated at 10:30 a.m. PDT, April 29, 2014 to add a new Red Flag Warning issued at 9:35 a.m. MDT.)
Wind gusts exceeding 80 mph and single-digit humidities are in the forecast for some areas of southern California Tuesday and Wednesday. A High Wind Warning issued by the National Weather Service at 1:55 a.m. Tuesday predicted sustained winds of 25 to 40 mph with gusts to 80 today, increasing on Wednesday to 30 to 45 mph with gusts to 85. That forecast applies to Orange County coastal areas, San Bernardino and Riverside county valleys, the Inland Empire, San Diego County valleys, and the mountain areas in the counties of San Bernardino, Riverside, and San Diego.
The graphical forecast (above) for Riverside shows relative humidities as low as 6 and 4 percent today and Wednesday, respectively, and high temperatures of 95 and 100.
In spite of this forecast, and live fuel moistures that are typical of July, there is no Red Flag Warning in effect for the area, only a Fire Weather Watch for portions of Los Angeles and Ventura Counties. UPDATE at 10:18 a.m. PDT Tuesday: the NWS issued a Red Flag Warning for portions of Los Angeles and Ventura Counties at 9:35 a.m. PDT
In anticipation of this wind event, CAL FIRE has moved engines and hand crews to the southern part of the state. Air tanker and helitack bases in the area were ordered to be ready to fly at 7 a.m.
The Red Flag map above was current at 8:30 a.m. PDT, April 29. The revised map below was captured at 10:23 a.m. PDT, April 29, showing all of the Fire Weather Watches had been cancelled, and Red Flag Warning issued for portions of Los Angeles and Ventura Counties.
Near-real-time wind speeds in southern California can be monitored at this NOAA website.
Red Flag Warnings can change throughout the day as the National Weather Service offices around the country update and revise their forecasts. For the most current data, visit this NWS site.
The wind sure bit ’em today. 50 miles east of LA. Over 1000 acres, 1650 homes on mandatory evac. Cant “bring on the rain”. All aircraft grounded last I heard due to 60 plus MPH winds. Trying to control it from the ground with 59 engines, 19 crews and several dozers.
NWS and GACC meteoroligists, GACC predictive services, and newbie FFMOs and DFMOs should be communicating… and most importantly…. reading and understanding so much about the work of Clive Countryman.
In the absense of them getting educated in SoCal fire behavior, fire history, and fire politics…. maybe they could simply rely upon the fire experts who have studied fire behavior and been through similar events in the past… some with good outcomes… some bad… and others with “unintended consequences”.
I guess the FS Chief’s message on “Risk Management” and the 5 “R’s” doesn’t trickle down to making properly informed risk management decisions that emphasize community and resource protection???
Something is Fubar… or I am just getting ready to jump off of train before the train wreck happens…
Imho