Prediction for winds gusting to 50 mph raise Red Flag Warnings in New Mexico

wildfire red flag warning march 12, 2016

The National Weather Service has issued Red Flag Warnings for areas in New Mexico and western Texas. The forecast calls for strong winds Saturday afternoon gusting up to 50 mph with relative humidities in the low teens or single digits.

The predicted red flag conditions mysteriously stop at the eastern and northern New Mexico border and don’t occur in Texas, Oklahoma, or Colorado except further south in the part of west Texas that is south of New Mexico. The same thing occurs to a lesser extent in southwest New Mexico where the red flag warnings in New Mexico are not in the forecast for Arizona across the imaginary line between the states. Examples of this phenomenon are tagged “red flag borders” on Wildfire Today.

The map was current as of 9:25 a.m. MDT on Saturday. Red Flag Warnings can change throughout the day as the National Weather Service offices around the country update and revise their forecasts and maps. For the most current data visit this NWS site.

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Author: Bill Gabbert

After working full time in wildland fire for 33 years, he continues to learn, and strives to be a Student of Fire.

6 thoughts on “Prediction for winds gusting to 50 mph raise Red Flag Warnings in New Mexico”

  1. We have had some decent rain, 1/4 or better over the last week here in west texas. The eastern end of the red flag warnings look to coincide with where the rain fell.

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  2. No local name for winds associated with frontal passages and pressure gradients. But springtime in New Mexico is almost synonymous with frequent windy days.

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  3. The Red Flag warnings on this map were created by 3 separate Weather Service Offices. Each one appears to use different criteria than each other and different from the Offices in TX and AZ. They also forecast differently for boundaries. The Midland TX office in this example uses county lines, the Albuquerque office uses Fire Weather Zones, mostly, and the El Paso office uses Fire Weather Zones. There is no nationwide Weather Service fire weather warning service. Each of the local offices make their own forecast. This is actually good, because each has more local knowledge than a remote one size fits all center. Perhaps a weather professional could jump in here and give the official version.

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  4. Agreed, Johnny C. been there, done that, more than once…
    Never knew if there was an exact name for it.
    Retardant isn’t particularly effective in those winds..

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  5. Exact meteorological science. Or, there has been a lot of talk in the press about building walls. Could these be “air dams?” Regardless any new starts, get out of the way, and let her (fire) do whatever she wants. Most of this country is flashy fuel types and resistance to containment until the winds decrease. With those wind values and accompanying R.H.’s find a flank and mop-up the burning fence posts. More fire fighters have been killed on these types of fires than huge complex brush/timber fires. (Is there a local name i.e. Santa Ana, Sundowner for this wind event?)

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