While the residents of southern California await the wind event that will start Tuesday night bringing winds gusting in some areas at 75 to 85 mph along with single-digit humidity, someone might wonder, can wildfire conflagrations that occur in southern California during extreme conditions be stopped?
That topic has been discussed for many decades but it can be instructive to know the thoughts of scientists who study wildland fire as a profession.
One of the pioneers in the scientific study of fire behavior was Clive M. Countryman, a U.S. Forest Service researcher who four years after the disastrous fires of 1970 addressed the issue in a 16-page paper, “Can Southern California Wildland Conflagrations Be Stopped?”. Mr. Countryman reported that he was not able to develop “a radically new concept of suppression”, deciding instead that the best prospect is to reduce fuel energy output.
Thirty years later Marty Alexander, a Canadian wildfire researcher, took a close look at Mr. Countryman’s findings, came to a similar conclusion, and summarized the issue in a 2004 paper.
I’ve always thought that question was a bit like “Can tornadoes be stopped?” when it comes to the bulk of southern California ecosystems. We could limit the impacts of wildland fire there the same way we could limit the impacts of tornadoes — get people to live elsewhere. Admittedly with as many people as live in SoCal, that isn’t going to be easy.
The simple truth is that every place I can think of has its own unique collection of hazards that can kill people who aren’t adapted and prepared for those specific hazards. In California we could get a whole lot smarter about where and how we build and our transportation infrastructure to minimze the impacts of wildland fire but that would require us to think and act collectively. Something we haven’t generally been willing to do when it comes to where and how we live.
Everybody wants to make babies. People love SoCal’s Mediterranean climate. Chamise and dry vegetation love it, too. Other folk do not like the congestion that SoCal is but they love California so they choose northward instead.
These “highly destructive fires” essentially occur solely in densely populated areas that butt against wild lands or are ensconced within. Until truly fireproof structures become the norm and/or unless money (tax base, profit) ceases to be a driving factor these tragic scenarios will continue to happen. Unless of course communities settle for half mile wide buffers of relatively barren ground or parks, golf courses (ick!), water features, etc. surrounding them.
The only thing for sure is that more babies will be born and, if you build, population increase will come. LR
California (especially southern part) is considered a desert because of the low precipitation. When I lived there before I was always amazed at how we got water from faucet daily when it could go without any rain for 6 to 9 months in a year. Not just humans used water the front yards of single residents used water also.
I’m a former PB4Y2 air tanker pilots. Have seen the power and deviating effects of these fires. We need something more effective than “us”, a help from mother nature, a lot of prayer and faith in God to get us through this. Miricals are possible, that’s what we need and God can deliver what we need! JJ
Unfortunately, we have to accept reality.
As long as we choose to live, work, or play in fire-adapted ecosystems, there will be losses.
I don’t believe there will be a financial solution to these devastating wildfires. It is going to take all kinds of cooperation, societal change, and some sacrifices. Do we have it in us?
There will be plenty of political hand wringing and finger pointing. As mentioned in the article, common sense will come from our scientific community. But…..many will not heed the warnings. Some will do the same thing and hope for a different result.