Rain forecast for western Canada

Western Canadian communities and firefighters may catch a welcome transition next week with a forecast for precipitation — perhaps a good amount. Over the next week, areas along the Canadian Rockies may receive more than 100 mm (3.9 inches) while the Alberta-Saskatchewan border area may receive 20 mm (less than an inch), with soil moisture predicted to rise throughout the fire-impacted areas. This will likely slow fire spread and smoke volume, though fires at such scale will continue to produce smoke. An overall increase in humidity should lower fire danger.

The western provinces have experienced weeks of active fire behavior and growth, with an intensity comparable to that seen in the 2016 fires that burned Fort McMurray, Alberta and the heat domes and fires of 2021, when fires burned Lytton, British Columbia.

Precipitation forecasts from the National Center for Environmental Prediction

Phys.org reported that some 2,500 firefighters from across Canada backed by 400 military personnel have been deployed across Alberta and that more foreign help has been requested — with crews and incident management teams from the United States, Mexico, Australia, and New Zealand.

At one point nearly 30,000 Alberta residents were evacuated from their homes. Hazardous air quality and low visibility due to smoke were reported from British Columbia to Saskatchewan and as far south as Colorado and northern Texas.

PM2.5 average05/21 map
PM2.5 average
05/21 map

Situation Reports – National

The home page of the Canadian Wildland Fire Information System features maps of weather, fire behavior, and hot spots.

The Canadian Interagency Forest Fire Center Situation Report for May 20 indicated area burned to-date of 2.1 million hectares (nearly 5.2 million acres), with 15 new fires for a total of 226 currently active fires. Of those fires,90 are identified as out of control. Canada is in its tenth day at its highest preparedness level of 5.

Situation Reports – Provinces with highest fire activity

Climate Change and Fire

In the Climate Atlas of Canada, an article on “Forest Fires and Climate Change” examines the impacts of climate change on Canadian fires and summarizes studies by Mike Flannigan and other scientists who predict that by 2100, western Canada will see a 50 percent increase in the number of dry, windy days that let fires start and spread, whereas eastern Canada will see an even more dramatic 200 percent to 300 percent increase in this kind of fire weather.  And by 2040, fire management costs are expected to double.

Flannigan, a professor of wildland fire at the University of Alberta, explores the impact in more detail on his website. “Fire is the major stand-renewing agent for much of the Canadian forest,” he says, “greatly influencing forest structure and function.”

The research he summarized indicates that the observed increases in area burned in Canada during the last four decades is the result of human-induced climate change. Additionally, he says it appears that temperature is the most important predictor of area burned in Canada with warmer temperatures associated with increased area burned.

Based on a 2005 analysis, Flannigan says current estimates are that an average of over 2 million hectares burn annually in Canada. Just shy of the third week of May, Canada has already recorded 2.1 million hectares burned.

International meeting opens with fire problem, community solutions

PORTO, Portugal – The opening morning of the Eighth International Wildland Fire Conference featured a range of civil leaders, fire managers, and scientific experts who helped circle the delegates around the dilemma of wildland fire: it is the problem and also (sometimes, but not always) the problem’s solution.

How a problem can be its own solution – the fire conundrum – is part of what drew some 1600 delegates from 90 countries to Porto, Portugal in mid-May.

The week-long conference included technical field trips on May 15 and the official opening May 16, followed by a keynote session labeled simply “The Problem.”

The opening included a videotaped welcome from António Guterres, the United Nations secretary-general, who cautioned that “We must keep global warming below 1.5 C” and if we’re to do so, he said, we must energize fire management that includes all voices, including indigenous leaders and communities. (And even though we must act to limit climate change, a UN World Meteorological Organization report this week has forecast a 66 percent chance we’ll reach the 1.5°C increase for a year during the next five years.)

The conference chair, Tiago Oliveira, board chairman of Portugal’s wildfire service Agency for Integrated Rural Fire Management (AGIF), opened with guidance: “We need to take out the emotional side of fire and replace it with  the rational management of fire.” Yet he also reminded attendees of the emotional reality of wildland fire. “I am a survivor as many of you are and we are here to build a better future. To ask for help as I did in 2017” – when Portugal endured a storm of fires that killed 120 citizens and firefighters. An article in Scientific Reports suggests that the extreme fire season of 2017 may have been a prelude to future conditions and likewise events that are triggered by climate change effects. The immensity and challenge of these fires also led to the creation of AGIF.

“Every day that we are managing fires we are learning,” Oliveira continued. “We come here to build friendships in fire. The more friends we have in the world of forest fires the more successful we will be. And the world needs our contributions. The world needs less bad fire and more good fire.”

Tiago Oliveira, board chairman of Portugal’s wildfire service (AGIF) and conference chair opens the Eighth International Wildland Fire Conference.

Gordy Sachs, chief of All Hazard and International Fire Support for the U.S. Forest Service and chair of the International Liaison Committee that planned the conference, reiterated the conference’s value globally. Statements from prior conferences [held every four years] influenced Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction and the Paris Agreement on climate, and the 2023 Conference will launch a key transition tool for international cooperation – the Landscape Fire Governance Framework – and will, like prior conferences, make each country and the world safer and more resilient.

Most of the opening, as is typical of international gatherings, offered the sort of civil and governance support that is key to implementing new frameworks. So it was heartening (if also disheartening) to learn from Antonia Cunha, president of Portugal’s North Regional Coordination and Development Commission, that he’s aware and concerned that 26 percent of carbon emissions in 2022 in the region was from forest fires.

Likewise, a commitment from Juan Cabandié, Environment Minister of Argentina, highlighted that his country needs to be more directed at planning and prevention. “We’re the eighth largest country in the world and 70 percent of our land at risk of wildfires,” he said. And to support its goals, Argentina has started its first monitoring system for entire country.

Duarte Cordeira, with Portugal’s Ministry of Environment, also returned the delegates to community. “We know that the best fire management is by the community members. If we want a more resistant forest that can provide economic and sustainable benefits, we cannot have a monoculture. We are increasing our defense with the creation of a protection ring of native forest.” He said already 200 of these native fuel breaks have been planted, with another 470 in the works and a goal of 800 villages. And Cordeira noted the challenge. “Yet 97 percent of rural properties are private,” he said, “so we need to increase subsidy for land consolidation.”

A conference opening offers a frame, and after a break for coffee and Pastéis de Nata, the conference jumped into “The Problem.” More on that soon.

Bill Gabbert’s fire legacy

Longtime fire journalist Bill Gabbert left us way too soon last year, and many of us will miss him and his contributions to the world of wildfire for a long time to come.

It was pancreatic cancer that took him, and he had a rough go of it for his last year or so, but then he was one of the fortunate few who go quietly and easily in their sleep.

Bill Gabbert, Canada Icefields Parkway
Bill Gabbert on a road trip, Canada Icefields Parkway

When the International Association of Wildland Fire (IAWF) accepted Bill’s generous offer to continue the form, format, and platform of his wildfire journalism websites, we were hoping for many conversations with him, with more time to absorb his advice and knowledge.

Those conversations were far too few, though, and the time far too short. But we are now pleased to announce the BILL GABBERT FELLOWSHIP in Wildfire Reporting, which will fund and mentor and publish the sort of innovative wildfire reporting that Bill exemplified.

An initial donation from a longtime supporter of Wildfire Today helped launch the program. Building on an auspicious start, the IAWF is now accepting donations to honor Bill’s work by developing and supporting a funded program to encourage innovators in wildfire journalism.

To remember Bill and support his legacy into the future, just use the red “Donate Online” link at iawfonline.org/donate – unless you specify otherwise, all donations to IAWF this year will support the BILL GABBERT FELLOWSHIP.

Later this year, officers will announce an application process to screen people and projects that feature reporting by fire-savvy writers and innovative media projects for Wildfire Today and Fire Aviation, with some articles jointly produced with Wildfire magazine.

In the next few posts — by Chuck Bushey and Wade Ward — we  share a few memories  from Bill’s friends and colleagues. Let us know if you have more.

A bad (and likely illegal) shooting decision, on video, ignites Arizona fire

 

05/04/2023 UPDATE:  Authorities have identified the shooter suspected of starting the Molino 2 Fire. The fire was started Sunday, April 30 and resulted in the closure of the Catalina Highway in the Santa Catalina Ranger District, Coronado National Forest. Video evidence shows the individual shooting illegal shotgun rounds and the start of the wildfire, according to KOLD-13 News.

Coronado National Forest managers and Forest Service Law Enforcement and Investigations expressed their appreciation to members of the public who provided multiple timely and actionable tips about the identity of the suspect who started the wildfire. Investigators identified, located, and interviewed the irresponsible gun owner, who is apparently shooting incendiary shells from a 12-gauge semiautomatic tactical shotgun with an extended magazine. The case has been referred to the U.S. Attorney’s Office.
 ~ K.A.

__________________________________

It’s Sunday, April 30, at milepost 4.5 on the Catalina Highway, in a section of the Coronado National Forest that is a recreation gateway for Tucson, Arizona. The day reaches 100 degrees for the first time of the year, and there’s a Red Flag Warning.

Most folks might think that this is not a good day to demonstrate how adept they are at shooting a shotgun at an oddly dressed torso target with what seems to be incendiary shells. Even a worse day to demonstrate this five times, on video.

Screenshot from video, showing the target and the shooter whose identity is being sought by Coronado National Forest investigators.
Screenshot from video, showing the target and the shooter whose identity is being sought by Coronado National Forest investigators.

But the correct decision wasn’t what the unnamed man in the video elected to do. His identity is being sought by Coronado National Forest investigators in connection with the Molino 2 Fire.

The forest shared the video in a media release noting that video evidence was obtained showing the suspect and the start of the Molino 2 Fire. Video footage shows an approximately 50- to 60-year-old, white male wearing a light grey shirt with tan cargo pants approaching the scene where others with a camera were shooting at a homemade target. Upon his arrival, they stepped back and allowed him to take five shots using his own shotgun. It appears in the video the suspect had it loaded with incendiary shells  causing sparks to fly and starting the Molino 2 Fire.

The release notes that using incendiary ammo and starting a wildfire are violations of 36 CFR 261.5 (b,c) punishable by up to 6 months in jail and/or $5,000. These violations are considered Class B Misdemeanors. In addition to the fine, some of the cost may be recovered through restitution.

The fire was reported to be contained at 110 acres, with no cost estimate available. The Catalina Highway was closed for a portion of the first day of the fire, causing significant delays of a Sunday afternoon mountain traffic.

The video shows a man who shoots with enough care to wear ear protection. First, he looks back – to recognize the person with the camera, and then he turns and begins what appears to be a very conscious act – as the use of any weapons should be, by ethics and law.

VIDEO:  https://youtu.be/cV1hlbXff7Q

In the video embers are visible flying from where the target is hit, bouncing off surrounding rocks. The shooter fires a total of five shells until he empties his shotgun.

A still-frame from the video. Source: Coronado National Forest.

At 34 seconds into the video, the camera pans left and focuses on nearly a dozen little spot fires. Within 15 seconds the flamelengths are 2-3 feet high and the spots burn together into three distinct fires at the base of a canyon chute.

The techniques and success of fire prevention are often framed by the Three E’s – Education, Engineering and Enforcement. All three E’s are in place in this section of the Catalina Highway (which I know well, as it leads to some of my favorite hiking and running routes, and I’ve managed fires there in the past). With education having already been ignored by the shooter, and the engineering being crossed (since most of this area is closed and flagged off along the highway), then the third E of enforcement is the last tool left, with a 49-second video to support the case, as well as 110 acres of burnt desert and grassland as evidence.

Anyone with information regarding this incident and the suspected shooter is asked to call 520-388-8343 or email the Coronado National Forest at Ma******************@us**.gov

Virginia deputy chief dies of heart attack after wildfire response

Chief Lauck
Chief Chester Lauck

A Virginia firefighter, Deputy Chief Chester T. Lauck with Frederick County Fire and Rescue, suffered a heart attack hours after responding to a wildfire and died the following morning.

The notice from the Frederick County Government Facebook page on Sunday announced “On behalf of Fire and Rescue Chief Steven A. Majchrzak, it is with profound sadness that we announce the Line-Of-Duty Death of Deputy Chief Chester T. Lauck, who passed away this morning at 8:09 a.m. at Winchester Medical Center surrounded by family and friends.”

Lauck LODD

In his most recent position, Lauck was responsible for the Emergency Management Division. Prior to that he had worked for the Winchester (Virginia) Fire and Rescue Department and had retired He retired from the Metropolitan Washington Airports Authority (MWAA) Fire and Rescue Department as a Battalion Chief of the Special Operations Division. He’d also worked as an Aircraft Rescue and Fire Fighter (ARFF) for the Air National Guard and began service in 1984 as a patrolman for the Virginia Department of Forestry, where he worked on wildland incidents and events.

Another Earth Day voice … MSNBC’s Velshi: ‘Time to get creative on wildfires – fast’

Ali Velshi, a business correspondent and analyst for MSNBC, focused on wildfires for his Earth Day commentary.  He introduces his concerns by noting that “More than half of the most destructive wildfires in US history have occurred since 2018,” with annual acres burned doubling in the past 30 years and forecast to double again in the next 30. The intro to his report continues … “Meanwhile, wildfire fighting tactics for detection and suppression haven’t changed in decades – and as the fires get bigger, faster, and deadlier, firefighters can’t keep up. New technologies are needed – soon – to save ecosystems, property, and lives.”

His report expands on the recent years of record fires and the impact this has had on communities and the firefighters who work to meet this daunting challenge. His key point … after 53 years of protesting and calling for action and significant changes, we’re now amid the “behemoth challenges” of climate change. On this Earth Day, Velshi suggests for us all to face and address the wildfire crisis with new technology and approaches.

That technology and business approaches are a component of Velshi’s call may reflect his reporting focus. And it’s worth noting that Velshi sits on the board of the XPRIZE, and his Earth Day report echoes the XPRIZE’s recent challenge focused on wildfire.

Details on Velshi’s broadcast were also tweeted on Earth Day.