Lessons from LA – what do we do now?

Fire map at 14 January 2025. Cal Fire.
Fire map at 14 January 2025. Cal Fire.

Many of the fires in southern California remain active but there is no shortage of views on what went wrong or right, what could or couldn’t be done, who is to blame and what do we all do now?


Wildfire Today
is keen to find the most important lessons to be learnt from these fires.

Terms like “unprecedented” and “unpredicted” are not helpful – especially when we have seen it before and knew it could happen again. Those term take away responsibility and action. They excuse the fact that things could have been done, by many.

Dr Marty Alexander, long time Canadian wildland fire researcher, has reminded Wildfire Today of the 1974 publication by Clive M. Countryman, “Can Southern California Wildland Conflagrations be Stopped?”.

Countryman was at the time of writing a wildland fire behavior scientist with the USDA Forest Service in southern California. His paper was a reflection of the 1970 fire season in California where 16 people died and more than 200 000 hectares of land burned, and around 700 homes lost.

 

His statement on The Fire Problem barely differs from today:

    • Climate, fuels, topography and people create fire problems
  • Relatively few fires become conflagrations
  • Conflagrations are most frequent during Santa Ana winds
  • Suppression of Santa Ana fires is difficult

His other conclusions include:

  • Fire prevention has limited value
  • Firefighting techniques and equipment and not adequate

His solutions then rely on a range of fuel modification measures.

For more nostalgia, watch these 1971 newsreels – on the same topic, same problem:

Deign for Disaster

Countdown to Calamity

Having looked back to see what we already know, Wildfire Today now turns to finding a way through new wildfire challenges.

 

Here are some tough questions for starters:

 

Evacuations

To have a large fire in such a heavily populated area with so few deaths or injuries is extraordinary. This suggests the evacuation process was largely successful – people were moved out of harms way. And yet we saw those abandoned vehicles on narrow mountainous roads that funnelled people onto Palisades Drive and Sunset Boulevard , panicked residents fleeing on foot, bulldozers shunting cars off the road to gain access for fire fighting vehicles – that’s not how an orderly evacuation is meant to work, that is last-minute, panicked fleeing. There are many international examples of disorderly evacuations going horribly wrong.

Is there are better way to get thousands of people out of the way of a fast moving wildfire? If evacuations occur well before the flames arrive that would help. But how early do you do early evacuations? When is it too late to leave? Where do 100,000 people evacuate to?

 

Suppression

As Carpenter noted in 1971 we need to all understand that once a fire gets to this size under these conditions all attempts to simply put it out are futile. The focus is on protecting people and strategic assets. The fire fighters on the ground and in the air understand this. Does the wider community understand this?? Does this explain all the anger that “someone should have done something”, and the thinking that if it wasn’t for a few empty hydrants and grounded aircraft (due to high winds) the fire would have been suppressed?

 

Fuel management

Many, many others since Carpenter have said you have got to better manage the fuels if you want to have any chance of managing the fire. What does good fuel management look like in southern California and when do we know that we have done enough? Would have it made a difference for these fires when it looks more like an urban conflagration with house to house burning?

 

Built environment

Are we living in the wrong places? If we know that wildfires are inevitable, why do we build homes in the middle of the highest wildfire risk areas? Any other day, it is clearly a wonderful place to live. But on days like 7 January 2025, this place was hell on earth. Do we place faith in the development of “fireproof” structures, or do we just accept that homes will burn?

 

Recovery

Once the emergency response phase settles and the debris is cleared, what does long term recovery look like? How do we build back better without just repeating the same mistakes? How does a community put aside the blame and divisions to work together on building long term resilience, and be ready for the next, inevitable, big fire?

 

There have been many articulate voices in the last few days with this Los Angeles Times article one of the better ones. It draws on wildfire researcher Jack Cohen, who encourages us to abandon our thoughts that this was a wildland fire and see it more as an urban fire that leapt from house to house, and fire historian Stephen Pyne who places today’s fire within a century of fires across a whole continent:

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2025-01-11/fire-experts-asses-los-angeles-blazes-amid-changing-times

Evacuations hold for Utah’s largest wildfire of the season

The Yellow Lake Fire has burned 32,919 acres of Utah’s Uinta-Wasatch-Cache National Forest and is at 29% containment as of Wednesday morning, officially making it the state’s largest wildfire of the season.

The fire triggered mandatory Level 3 (Go) evacuation orders for all residents, hunters, and recreationists in the North and West Forks of Duchesne River and the Granddaddy Lakes area. A Level 2 (Set) order is in place for the community of Hanna. A widespread closure of the forest is also in effect until fire conditions improve.

Nearly 800 personnel are working the fire as jackpot fuels continue to spread fire growth. A Red Flag Warning was also put into effect for the area until 6 p.m. Wednesday night.

The Yellow Lake Fire burning in Utah’s Uinta-Wasatch-Cache National Forest. Credit: InciWeb

Officials praised previously completed fuel-thinning projects throughout the forest for slowing fire progress and expect coming rain and snow on Thursday to further limit fire growth.

“Fire managers say the biggest concern is the northwest corner of the fire,” Uinta-Wasatch-Cache National Forest officials said in the fire’s Wednesday update. “Aircraft equipped with infrared technology flew the fire last night and detected intense heat around the ‘nose’ of the fire that extends toward Iron Mine Road.”

A total of 1,219 fires have burned 90,836 acres across Utah in 2024, according to Utah Fire Info. The Yellow Lake Fire is by far the state’s largest fire of the year, followed by the Silver King Fire at 18,222 and the Deer Springs Fire at 11,766. Humans caused 686 fires, whereas 454 fires were confirmed to be naturally caused. The cause of 79 fires have yet to be determined.

Washington wildfire triggers evacuations, even after season declared ‘over’

The Squilchuck Road Fire has burned an undisclosed amount of acres and sits at 30% containment near the Washington State community of Wenatchee Heights, according to Chelan County Emergency Management.

Chelan County Sheriff’s Office issued a Level 3 (Go Now) evacuation order for Wenatchee Heights throughout the West end of Connery Road to the North end of Jim Smith.

A Level 2 (Set) evacuation order was previously in place for the 3200 block of Squilchuck Road, but that was lowered to a Level 1 (Ready) evacuation order Monday morning.

Squilchuck Road Fire. Credit: Chelan County Emergency Management

The evacuations happened just two days after Washington Public Lands Commissioner Hilary Franz held an “end-of-wildfire-season” press conference at Deer Park Airport, according to The Seattle Times. There, Franz said an estimated 308,000 acres burned throughout the state in 2024, more than the 151,000 in 2023 and 174,000 in 2022, but less than the 674,000 in 2021 and 842,000 in 2020. She also said firefighters kept 95% of the more than 1,400 ignitions this year under 10 acres.

“Our progress to date is truly a testament of the infrastructure investments we have made year after year and how we are fighting our fires more strategically,” said Franz, who is in the final three months of her term, as she is running for Congress.

Statewide emergency, evacuations triggered by numerous North Dakota wildfires

North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum declared a statewide fire emergency as wildfires killed one person and triggered numerous evacuations.

The state’s forest service is fighting multiple fires mainly in the western half of the state, according to the National Interagency Fire Center‘s infrared map. Those fires include:

  • The Bear Den Fire, which started Saturday morning, has burned an estimated 10,000 acres near the Fort Berthold Reservation as of Sunday afternoon.
  • The Elkhorn Fire, which started Saturday evening, has burned an estimated 10,000 acres south of Watford City.
  • The Sprint Creek Fire, which started Saturday afternoon, has burned an estimated 5,000 acres south of Watford City.
Credit: North Dakota Governor’s Office

NIFC’s map indicated numerous other hotspots throughout the state Sunday afternoon, but these have not yet been named or confirmed as active wildfires.

“Several large wildfires were being fought in western North Dakota this evening including near Grassy Butte, near Johnson’s corner along Highway 73 and near Mandaree,” Burgum said late Saturday night. “Evacuation orders were issued in multiple areas and temporary shelters were opened for those displaced.”

The Williams County Sheriff’s Office reported 26-year-old Johannes Nicolaas Van Eeden of South Africa died of fire-related injuries in the Ray area, according to the Bismarck Tribune. The local paper said South Africans often come to the state to work as farmhands. Another unidentified individual was taken to a local medical facility with critical injuries.

The National Weather Service’s Bismarck Office issued a Red Flag Warning, High Wind Warning, and Wind Advisory for much of the state Saturday, when the state’s biggest fires started. Fire conditions were worsened by Extreme to Moderate Drought intensity in the state’s western half, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. Critical fire conditions have since subsided.

“Widespread high winds impacted the region yesterday with multiple sites seeing wind gusts above 75 mph. Luckily winds will remain light through this week,” the office tweeted Sunday.

Credit: North Dakota Governor’s Office

The North Dakota Forest Service previously deployed multiple engines and crews to the fires, along with two North Dakota National Guard UH-60 Black Hawk helicopters and more than two dozen National Guard firefighters, Burgum said. Two heavy air tankers from Montana also dumped fire retardant while bulldozers and motor graders cut fire lines near the community of Mandaree.

The pause in fire-spreading weather will help firefighters get a foothold on the wildfires, according to USFS Dakota Prairie Grasslands.

“On the east side of the fire, near the Little Missouri River, the North Dakota National Guard is utilizing a helicopter to perform water drops to help contain the fire,” forest service officials said Sunday. “Local, state, and federal resources are working together performing suppression activities around the perimeter of the fire. Additionally, two hand crews are en route to the incident.”

‘Unprecedented’ Wyoming wildfire expands evacuations and burns nearly 50,000 acres

The Elk Fire burning throughout Wyoming’s Big Horn National Forest near the town of Dayton triggered evacuations late Tuesday night and expanded evacuation warnings for nearby residents Wednesday.

The fire, which lightning first ignited on Sept. 27, has burned 49,555 acres in North-Central Wyoming along the border of Montana and closed the major roadway of US Highway 14. It sits at 0% containment as of Thursday morning.

“The conditions we’re experiencing on this fire are unprecedented…in these mountains,” Bighorn National Forest Supervisor Andrew Johnson said at a community meeting Wednesday night. “The temperatures we’ve been feeling don’t feel like October. The dryness we have does not feel like October. The relative humidity being so low doesn’t feel like October.”

The area is under a red flag warning with temperatures estimated in the low 70s, wind gusts up to 25 mph, and relative humidity around 20%. Dayton’s average max temperature since 1951 is 59.2 degrees, according to the Western Regional Climate Center.

Johnson also said fire crews are in this for the long haul, as the “unprecedented” weather conditions are expected to promote fire growth.

“Hot, windy weather is anticipated to start Friday afternoon and continue into Saturday. This weather will likely bring increased fire activity and spread,” the Big Horn National Forest’s update Thursday morning said.

USFS Bighorn National Forest

The Sheridan County Sheriff issued evacuations for residents along Pass Creek Road and Twin Creek Road west of Parkman, and Tongue River Canyon west of Dayton. “Set” evacuation warnings were set for residents on the Eagle Ridge Subdivision and those living east of U.S. Highway 14. The town of Parkman and residents north of the town on both sides of Highway 345 up to the Montana state line were put under “Ready” notices.

An evacuation center was set up at the Sheridan County Fairgrounds in the city of Sheridan.

“From when this fire was discovered Friday, it has been a hard fight,” Johnson said. “It has been resistant to control despite a lot of intense effort from the air and the ground.”

Credit: Rocky Mountain Area Complex Incident Management Team 3

Line Fire’s evacuations for thousands hold as it burns away from San Bernardino

Crews continue to fight the arson-started Line Fire, which has burned 26,516 acres of the San Bernardino National Forest and sits at 5% contained as of Tuesday morning.

The wildfire has threatened over 65,000 structures since it first began on Sept. 5, with 9,200 of those structures under evacuation orders, Cal Fire officials said. A 34-year-old man was arrested and is suspected of starting the fire in the area of Baseline Road and Alpin Street in Highland, KTLA reported.

Crews report the fire’s greatest intensity is on its north and east sides, heading away from the highly populated area of San Bernardino, Highland, and Redlands. Strong winds and overall very dry conditions will likely increase fire spread into Tuesday night, with cooler weather into the end of the week moderating fire activity.

California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection’s Map of the Line Fire from Sept. 9, 2024.

Evacuation orders were in place for numerous areas around the fire on Tuesday, including:

  • Communities of Running Springs and Arrowbear Lake
  • The community of Forrest Falls
  • The community of Mountain Home Village
  • The communities of Angelus Oaks, Seven Oaks and all campgrounds and cabins in the area
  • From Calle Del Rio east to Hwy 38 and from Greenspot Road north to the foothills
  • The area east of Orchard Road to Cloverhill Drive from Highland Ave north to the foothills
  • All undeveloped land east of Hwy 330 to Summertrail Place and north of Highland Avenue
  • The areas north and east of Highland Avenue and Palm Avenue

Numerous other areas were put under evacuation warnings. Click here for the most up-to-date evacuations.

The California National Guard, under order of Governor Gavin Newsom, has deployed the following resources to the fire, according to Cal Fire:

  • Four UH-60 Blackhawk helicopters for water bucket dropping operations
  • Two C-130 aircraft with Modular Airborne Fire Fighting Systems (MAFFS)
  • Four 20-person hand crews (80 soldiers). They report to Camp Roberts today for equipment distribution and will be assigned to the Line Fire on Thursday in support of CAL FIRE.
  • One military police company to support the San Bernardino County Sheriff’s Department with traffic control points in evacuated areas.