Forecast for lightning with little or no precipitation for 6 a.m. MDT Thursday until 6 a.m. MDT Friday.Areas in 10 western states are included in forecasts for isolated or scattered thunderstorms with little or no rain Thursday afternoon and night, prompting Red Flag Warnings.
Nationally 23,467 firefighters are actively attempting to suppress 58 large fires and another 47 are being managed under a less than full suppression strategy. If this dry lightning event in drought-affected desiccated vegetation creates a new round of wildfires it would put additional stress on the wildfire suppression system that is already struggling to mobilize enough personnel and equipment for the existing 105 fires. Only one of the 16 Type 1 Incident Management Teams is available for new fires.
The National Weather Service predicts “…dry and breezy conditions conducive to fire spread across portions of the western Great Basin northeastward to the northern High Plains. Deep-layer ascent associated with the approaching upper trough will also support isolated to scattered thunderstorms across the western Great Basin and portions of the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies. Several fire starts will be possible where thunderstorms occur given the extremely dry fuels in place.”
Some locations from central Nevada northwestward to central Oregon and eastward to south-central Montana could receive more than half an inch of rain, but lightning could occur with no rain. Of particular concern is the area from central Oregon into far Northern California where fire managers should expect dry thunderstorms.
Red Flag Warnings Sept. 9, 2021.The analysis in the tweet below raises the possibility of lightning with little or no rain in California’s South Bay, Central Coast, Santa Cruz Mountains, and the Los Padres National Forest in Monterey County. This area is under a Red Flag Watch.
Important update in the fire weather discussion by @NWSBayArea noting more widespread lightning potential with incoming weather pattern (not limited to the North Bay and East Bay) this is in line with evening model and satellite trends (1/2) #CAwx #FireWx pic.twitter.com/eqYUECguRI
— Rob Mayeda (@RobMayeda) September 9, 2021
