Oregon’s Flat Fire near Oak Flat and Agness takes off

A new fire that ignited over the weekend in southwest Oregon is threatening the community of Agness, Oregon, on the Rogue River west of Grants Pass. The fire quickly grew to more than 8,000 acres despite USFS initial attack efforts.

Flat Fire aerial image, Rogue River--Siskiyou photo

Oregon Public Broadcasting (OPB) reported that the Flat Fire is growing fast on the Rogue River–Siskiyou National Forest, between Gold Beach on Oregon’s south coast and Grants Pass on I-5. Weather conditions over the last couple days contributed to the quick spread, and an IMT took over from local agencies yesterday. The fire is burning just a couple miles from Agness, near the confluence of the Rogue River and the Illinois River.

The Rogue River flows 215 miles from Crater Lake to the Pacific Ocean. The 84-mile Congressionally-designated “National Wild and Scenic” portion of the Rogue begins 7 miles west of Grants Pass and ends 11 miles before its mouth at Gold Beach.

Bridge over the Rogue
Bridge over the Rogue

Jefferson Public Radio reported the fire grew more than 8,000 acres in under three days. Nearly 400 firefighters were working the fire, which threatens about 40 structures in and around the small community of Agness. On Monday, crews were building fireline to prevent further spread.

There’s a reason (or 4) that GoogleMaps will show you this “preferred route” and the “short route” between Grants Pass and Gold Beach; it’s really skatey even in the summertime, and LOTS of people get lost or stranded on Bear Camp Road. Please DO NOT interfere with firefighter vehicle traffic up there because you wanto “go get a look at the helicopters” or something … interfering with firefighting operations, whether you’re flying a drone or driving a pickup, will land you in jail, and some sheriffs are touchier about this than others.

road alternates between Agness and Grants Pass, Oregon
Road alternates between Agness and Grants Pass, Oregon

It was planned yesterday that evening operations would include night crews on the northwest corner of the fire, if conditions permit, which would allow crews to burn out vegetation between fire crews and the active fire.

The fire recently was reported at just over 8,200 acres, with a total 378 personnel assigned to the incident. Resources at that time included 16 engines, 13 crews, 2 dozers, 7 helicopters, and 2 water tenders.

Closures: At least one closure order is in place for the safety of the public. Please be careful when driving in the area and do not drive toward the fire if you don’t live there or work there.

Restrictions: Fire restrictions are in place on the Rogue River–Siskiyou National Forest. The Forest has several closures and public use restrictions on the wild section of the Rogue River [HERE] but they’re mostly in pdf format and thus may not be accessible for everyone. Your best bet for mostly current info is inciweb. (Note the correct URL for this website has changed several times over the years, but for right now it is inciweb.nwcg.gov)– and even though the site warns you to redirect to inciweb.wildfire.gov, THAT DOES NOT WORK. The Flat Fire incident page doesn’t yet have any MAPS, but in the meantime here’s one of the general size of it, northeast of Gold Beach:

Flat Fire map
Flat Fire map

The Flat Fire is now the largest wildfire burning in Oregon and more crews and other resources are expected in the next few days; current management is under Albrecht’s Northwest Incident Management Team 6.

An evacuation shelter has been established at Gold Beach High School for anyone displaced by the fire and needing assistance. As of Monday, there were no evacuations ordered. Residents can sign up for emergency notifications with the Curry County Emergency Management Department.

There’s a small collection of outstanding photos online from the Coos Forest Protective Association. We expect more in the coming days.

KPIC-TV News reported that fire officials said the Flat Fire is burning in historic burn scars from both the 2002 Biscuit Fire and the 2018 Klondike Fire. Firefighters are working around numeroous standing dead trees and dense vegetation within these burn scars, and the landscape in this part of the Pacific Northwest is characterized by very steep terrain and extremely limited access options. Fire managers are deliberately considering firefighting tactics to keep crews safe, while protecting surrounding communities and infrastructure.

More resources arrived this morning, and their numbers will be boosted over the next several days. Crews are strengthening and building new firelines, and fire managers will assign aviation resources as conditions and visibility allow. Watch for updates from the RxFire Info
Rogue Valley Interagency Community Center.

As of this morning there were no official closure orders for the area, but people are STRONGLY ADVISED TO STAY OUT. This is a rugged part of Oregon’s coastal mountains where people often get stranded or disoriented or lost, and local fire and law enforcement people don’t have a lot of spare time right now, with a fast-growing fire of this size, to come look for you. Stay out, and avoid getting in the way of firefighting operations. The rugged, mountainous terrain makes it more difficult for firefighting crews to access the area, BUT the Lost Coast Outpost reports that firefighters’ goal is “full suppression” on a rapidly growing fire in extreme summer temperatures.

Nationally, there are now eight fires being managed under a strategy other than full suppression. For updates on the Flat Fire, you can email 2023.flat.or@firenet.gov

No one was evacuated as of yesterday morning, Curry County Commissioner Brad Alcorn told the Lost Coast Outpost. But because of the steep and harsh terrain and hazardous weather conditions, Alcorn said he expects the fire will grow.

“There are a handful of residences up there, probably 14 to 15 homes, and the sheriff has contacted everyone,” Alcorn told the Outpost. “They’re in communication, so if there is a situation where we need to do an immediate evacuation we have a mechanism in place to make sure that happens safely.”

The Flat Fire was first reported at about 6 p.m. Saturday, Alcorn told the community in a video briefing on Sunday. It’s burning near Oak Flat, not far southwest of Agness, according to a Rogue River-Siskiyou National Forest news release on Sunday. The Forest Service said two days ago that about 40 structures were threatened. The fire is making its biggest gains in the Lawson Creek drainage; it’s on both sides of the Illinois River, burning in the 2002 Biscuit Fire scar.

The fire was mapped at 5,477 acres via an infrared flight two days ago, said Doug Epperson, the PIO for Northwest Incident Management Team 6, the Type 2 IMT that took over fire operations at 6 a.m. yesterday. He said the fire is burning in new regrowth that occurred after the 2002 Biscuit Fire.
“There’s been a lot of growth since then,” he added.

Air Quality Index between Gold Beach and Grants Pass for the Flat Fire, July 2023
Air Quality Index between Gold Beach and Grants Pass for the Flat Fire, July 2023

A red flag warning was in effect through this morning, and those weather conditions will likely contribute to additional fire spread. An air quality advisory was also issued for parts of Curry and Josephine counties; air quality could be diminished because of smoke from the fire. The National Preparedness Level is still at 2 and the national sit report lists just 16 large fires today.

The cost of saving money on wildfire suppression

Myrtle Fire
Myrtle Fire north of Hot Springs, SD, July 19, 2012 Photo by Bill Gabbert

Maintaining a wildfire suppression infrastructure is expensive, but as the saying goes, “you can pay me now or pay me later”. Wildfires are going to occur, regardless of the number of fire suppression resources that are funded by the government. An adequate number of firefighters on the ground and in the air can implement a prescription for keeping new fires from becoming megafires:

Rapid initial attack with overwhelming force using both ground and air resources, arriving within the first 10 to 30 minutes when possible.

The current paradigm of cascading federal budget cuts for fire suppression has reduced the capability of putting out wildfires while they are small. An aggressive initial attack on an emerging fire may cost $10,000, or $50,000, or even $75,000. But when the fire is put out quickly, the firefighters become available to attack the next fire with overwhelming force, rather than being tied up on a huge fire that may take six weeks to wrap up.

And that huge fire may cost $30 million to $50 million to suppress.

Suppression costs of seven fires in 2012:

  • Mustang Complex, Idaho, $38 million
  • High Park, Colorado, $38 million
  • Chips, California, $54 million
  • Wenatchee Complex, Washington, $32 million
  • Bagley, California, $37 million
  • North Pass, California, $30 million
  • Trinity Ridge, Idaho, $41 million

But the suppression costs can pale in comparison to the property damage for an urban interface fire. In 2012 insurance companies in Colorado paid an estimated $450 million for damage caused by two wildfires, primarily for structures that burned.

Estimated costs to insurers for property damage on wildfires:

  • 2012, Waldo Canyon Fire, Colorado, $353 million
  • 2012 High Park Fire, Colorado, $97 million
  • 2010, Fourmile Canyon Fire, Colorado, $224 million
  • 2007, Witch Fire, California, $1.142 billion
  • 2003, Old Fire, California, $1.141 billion
  • 2003, Cedar Fire, California, $1.240 billion
  • 1991, Oakland Hills Fire, California, $2.687 billion

In 2012, according to the Colorado Division of Fire Prevention and Control, wildfires in the state destroyed more than 648 structures, killed six people, burned more than 384,000 acres and caused at least $538 million in property losses

Fighting fire on the cheap can be very expensive in lost lives, megafires, and property damage. Investing money up front to reduce the number of megafires can save money. The current strategy of fewer federal firefighters and large air tankers is not working. In the decade of the 1990s the average size of a wildfire in the lower 49 states was 30 acres. In the three years of the present decade the average size is 93 acres. In 2012 almost half of the time when wildland firefighters requested an air tanker to help slow down a wildfire, the call went unanswered because none were available.

We need to restore the initial attack capability that we had in the 1990s. More firefighters and large air tankers can help to keep fires small. In 2002 the federal government had 44 large air tankers on exclusive use contracts. By 2012 the fleet had atrophied to nine. Some wildfire experts recommend that we need 30, 40, or even 50. The U.S. Forest Service has been trying to contract for approximately seven additional “next generation” air tankers, bringing the total up to 16. The newer aircraft would be turbine-powered, be able to cruise at 300 knots (345 mph), and preferably have a capacity of 3,000 to 5,000 gallons of retardant. The USFS issued the solicitation 1 year, 3 months, and 2 days ago, but no contracts have been awarded.

The USFS-funded RAND air tanker study found that a 3,000-gallon air tanker costs approximately $7.1 million a year without the costs of retardant. In fiscal year 2010 the USFS spent $10.3 million on retardant. Using these figures, a fleet of 30 large air tankers for a year would cost about the same as the property damage and suppression of one large urban interface fire, the 2010 Fourmile Canyon Fire near Boulder, Colorado — or about one-fifth of the property damage on the 2003 Cedar fire in California.

Firefighters on the ground and in the air will never put out every fire while they are small, and air tankers alone can’t do it either. Aircraft don’t put out fires — at best they can slow them down temporarily, allowing firefighters on the ground to stop the spread. Going forward we need a complete palette of resources, a tool box of complementary weapons, each with their niche, working together.