Smoke from the Pagami Creek fire over Poland, Ukraine, and Russia at 0500 UTC 9-16-2011. Meteosat-8, HRV
Smoke from Minnesota’s Pagami Creek fire is being tracked by meteorologists and other scientists as it travels around the globe. At 0300 UTC September 15 it was detected over the United Kingdom at a height of 11 to 12 kilometers, which is above the cold point tropopause. The satellite photo above shows it over Poland, Ukraine, and Russia at 0500 UTC September 16.
Smoke from the Pagami Creek fire being generated in Minnesota at 1850 UTC, September 12, 2011
It has only been in recent years that scientists have realized that smoke from wildfires can not only be transported from one continent to another, but the smoke “clouds” can remain relatively intact and circle the Earth for months. Chuck Bushey, a long-time fire behavior analyst and currently the President of the International Association of Wildland Fire, wrote this in an email today:
The “cloud” from these events that penetrate upper levels of the troposphere and even lower stratosphere have been shown repeatedly to hold together for extended time periods – circling the globe as distinct atmospheric entities before finally dissipating sometimes months after the initiating event. Not only is the immediate fire behavior of these events unusual and interesting but so are the longer term results and I believe the potential implications.
A fire that started in the Boundary Waters Canoe Area Wilderness (BWCAW) and was not suppressed for about two weeks, has burned outside the BWCAW and become the largest fire in Minnesota since 1918. The Pagami Creek fire has burned 100,000 acres, according to the incident management team, and forced evacuations on the south and east sides of the fire. Scroll down to see maps of the fire.
It started from a lightning strike on August 18 and by August 30 had burned approximately 130 acres.
Map of the Pagami Creek fire at 8:00 a.m. CT, August 30, 2011. Credit: Superior National Forest and Google Earth
The staff at the BWCAW and the Superior National Forest decided to monitor it and allow natural processes to run their course. They conducted some firing operations, burning an additional 2,000 acres, to herd the fire away from populated areas on the north and west sides, but by last weekend it was obvious that they needed to suppress it. Strong winds on Monday of 15-20 mph gusting up to 35 mph spread the fire 16 miles to the east. At that point the intensity of the fire far exceeded the capabilities of the fire suppression forces. Winds again on Tuesday spread the fire even further, to the point where it is now mapped at 100,000 acres. However the smoke makes mapping difficult, and that acreage may change after firefighters can actually see the full perimeter.
The Pagami Creek fire is ranked as the third largest fire in the history of Minnesota. Larger fires were the 250,000-acre fire near Cloquet in October of 1918 which killed 559 people, and a 200,000-acre fire near Hinckley in September of 1894 which killed 418 people. Here is a link to more information about “Infamous Fires”.
UPDATE at 10:53 p.m. CT, September 13, 2011: The InciWeb site for the Pagami Creek fire was updated about an hour ago, and includes a new figure for the size of the fire: 100,000 acres. Maps of the fire can be found on the InciWeb site…if it is up and running. It had problems off and on today.
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Monday morning the Pagami Creek fire in Minnesota’s Boundary Waters Canoe Area Wilderness (BWCAW) east of Ely was 11,000 acres. Today I saw a map that was updated at 7:00 p.m. Monday night. From my very unofficial estimate derived from counting 640-acre sections that had burned, the fire had blown up to over 70,000 acres. The maps may be an overestimate of the fire’s size; mapping it was difficult due to the smoke. Here is a link to a different, but current as of Monday night, map of the fire.
The Associated Press is reporting 60,000 acres, a figure which apparently came from Minnesota Interagency Fire Center spokeswoman Jean Bergerson Tuesday morning. InciWeb, which at times has been having problems today, was updated at noon on Tuesday with this information:
Yesterday, a finger of the Pagami Creek Fire made an unprecedented 16 mile run to the east, reaching the edge of Polly Lake. The fire became a plume-driven event and reached in excess of 60,000 acres. Residents were evacuated from 36 addresses along the portion of the Cramer Road/Lake County Road 7 from Kawishiwi Lake south to the Wanless Road (Forest Road 172) and along the Wanless Road west from the junction with the Cramer Road to Homestead Lake. Winds are expected to be strong and out of the northwest and west again today with little or no precipitation expected.
Pagami Creek fire, burns along lake shore in undated photo by Superior National Forest
The blowup was caused by 15-20 mph west and northwest winds on Monday that gusted up to 35 mph pushing the fire approximately 16 miles to the east. The National Weather Service is predicting strong northwest winds again on Tuesday of 18 mph gusting to 28 along with a relative humidity of 37%. But between 2 and 6 p.m. there is a 45 percent chance of showers. Tuesday’s high temperature will be 60 in Ely, but on Wednesday it will cool off quite a bit with a high of only 46, with winds of 14 mph gusting to 18.
Check out this animation of smoke from the fire as seen from a satellite on September 11. And HERE is an excellent gallery of pictures of the fire…taken from the ground.
The Pagami Creek fire is the largest in the state since the Ham Lake fire burned over 76,000 acres in Minnesota and Ontario in May 2007, destroying 163 structures near Gunflint Trail.
