Wildfire potential, August through November, 2011

The Predictive Services section at the National Interagency Fire Center has issued their National Wildland Significant Fire Potential Outlook for August through November, 2011. According to their prediction, most of the western United States is in for a quiet late summer and fall, with the exception of Texas and Oklahoma in August, and most of the southeast except for Florida from September through November.

August monthly wildfire outlookWildfire potential, September through November, 2011

Wildfire potential, July through October, 2011

The Predictive Services section at the National Interagency Fire Center has issued their National Wildland Significant Fire Potential Outlook for July through October, 2011. If this turns out to be accurate, it looks like there will be average or below average wildfire potential beginning in July, except for Texas — of course. When it comes to wildfires over the last 8 months or so, if it were not for bad luck, Texas would have no luck at all.

Firefighters in Arizona and New Mexico have both been extremely busy during the last 30 days, with both states experiencing record-breaking fires, larger than any in recorded history. Here’s what the outlook says about that area:

Southwest: Above normal significant fire potential is expected across the northwestern one-third to one-half of Arizona as well as sections of northwestern New Mexico in July. Much of the remainder of the Southwest will transition from above normal to normal during the first 7-10 days of the month. Seasonal trends indicate moisture under the subtropical ridge will produce periods of increased rainfall over the region. However, conditions in the northwestern parts of both Arizona and New Mexico may linger in high fire potential past mid-month until deeper moisture and precipitation can migrate to those areas and reduce the threat. Temperatures are expected to be above normal for most of the area while precipitation is expected to be normal with slightly below normal over western Arizona.

Normal significant fire potential is expected for the entire Southwest for August through October. Normal to slightly above normal monsoon activity could produce above normal precipitation for the period, especially near the continental divide and eastward. The western Arizona lowlands could see normal precipitation. Temperatures are expected to be normal to slightly above normal through the period.

Seasonal wildfire outlook July, 2011
Seasonal wildfire outlook, August-October, 2011

Wildfire potential, June through September, 2011

Today the Predictive Services section at the National Interagency Fire Center issued their National Wildland Significant Fire Potential Outlook for June through September, 2011. If this turns out to be accurate, it looks like it will be a quiet or average summer season for the United States, with the exception of portions of Arizona, New Mexico, west Texas, central Alaska, and Florida.

The primary factors influencing these outlooks are:

  • La Niña: La Niña continues to weaken with neutral conditions expected by July. However, soil moisture extremes resulting from La Niña will continue to affect temperature and precipitation patterns through the season. Temperatures will generally be below average with above average precipitation in areas where soil moisture is significantly above normal, until.
  • Drought: Drought will continue across much of the southern third of the U.S. with some improvement expected along the Gulf Coast and in parts of Texas and the Southwest.
  • Fuel Dryness: Fuel conditions across the southern tier of states are expected to continue to be dry through June, gradually improving across west Texas, the Gulf Coast and Florida as the month progresses. Across the northern tier heavy snow and precipitation this spring has delayed green up and curing, generally delaying the onset of fire season.

monthly wildfire potential outlook

seasonal wildfire potential outlook

Below is the latest version of the Drought Monitor:

Drought Monitor 5-24-2011

Wildfire potential, May through August, 2011

The Predictive Services section at the National Interagency Fire Center issued their National Wildland Significant Fire Potential Outlook for May through August, 2011. If this turns out to be accurate, it looks like it will be a quiet or average summer season for the United States, with the exception of portions of the southwest and Florida.

The primary factors influencing these outlooks are:

  • La Niña: The ongoing La Niña influence is forecast to weaken through early summer of 2011 and return to neutral conditions.
  • Drought: Drought will persist across portions of the southwestern U.S. with improvement expected over the southeastern U.S. and portions of Texas.
  • Fuel Dryness: Dryness observed over Florida and the extreme southeast states during spring will diminish by June. Unusually dry areas with above normal significant fire potential will expand westward and northward across New Mexico and Arizona through the summer while easing through much of Texas.

(Click on the images to see larger versions.)

National Wildfire outlook May 2011

National Wildfire outlook June-Aug 2011

Here is the latest revision of the Drought Monitor released by the U.S. Department of Agriculture:

Drought Monitor 4-26-2011

 

Wildfire potential, April through July, 2011

The Predictive Services section at the National Interagency Fire Center issued their National Wildland Significant Fire Potential Outlook today for April through July, 2011.

The primary factors influencing these outlooks are:

  • La Niña: The ongoing La Niña episode is forecast to weaken in the spring and return to El Niño-Southern Oscillation neutral conditions.
  • Drought: Conditions are expected to persist and worsen across portions of the southwestern, southern, and central U.S. and along the mid-Atlantic seaboard. Some improvement is likely over Arkansas and sections of Virginia.
  • Fuel Dryness: Dryness observed over Florida and the extreme southeast states during the winter will continue into the summer. Unusually dry areas with above normal significant fire potential will expand westward across New Mexico and northward in Arizona through spring.

Wildfire potential, April 2011

Wildfire potential, May-July 2011

The latest revision of the Drought Monitor was released yesterday by the U.S. Department of Agriculture:

Drought Monitor 3-31-2011

Wildfire potential, March through June, 2011

The Predictive Services section of the National Interagency Fire Center issued their National Wildland Significant Fire Potential Outlook today for the period March through June. At least we are pretty sure those are the dates that are covered. As sometimes happens with this monthly report, there are several errors or typos at the beginning of the document relative to dates that are included in the report. The problem with the errors is, we have to wonder if any other portions of the report are invalid.

But here are some excerpts from the report issued today:

monthly_outlook_March 2011

seasonal wildfire outlook_ April through June 2011

The primary factors influencing these outlooks are:

La Niña: The ongoing strong La Niña episode is expected to weaken this spring of although its effects will continue to be felt. Warmer and drier weather is expected to occur across the southern tier of states and into the southern & central Great Plains with a corresponding increase in significant fire potential.

Drought: Persisting and increasing drought across portions of the southern and central U.S. and along the mid-Atlantic seaboard will result in increasing significant fire potential during the late winter and spring.

Fuel Dryness: Unusual dryness across the southern tier of states observed this winter will expand areas of above normal significant fire potential westward across southern New Mexico & into southeast Arizona and northward into the Colorado front range & central plains. Increasing fuel dryness is also expected to expand northward from Florida to the southern and mid-Atlantic seaboard.