Wildfire potential, November through February

The Predictive Services section at the National Interagency Fire Center has issued their National Wildland Fire Potential Outlook for November, 2012 through February, 2013. As we get closer to winter, there are no areas identified as having above normal wildfire potential for that period.

Wildfire potential, November, 2012

Wildfire potential, December, 2012 - February, 2012

Here is an excerpt from the report:

Significant Fire Potential

  • For November above normal significant fire potential only remains across small portions of the Hawaiian Islands. By the December through February timeframe no above normal significant fire potential is expected in the U.S.
  • Below normal significant fire potential is expected across much of the southeastern U.S. for the entire forecast period
  • Elsewhere expect near normal significant fire potential to exist. In many areas of the western U.S. this indicates fall and winter conditions that are generally considered out of fire season.

Wildfire potential and fire behavior advisories

Fuels and fire behavior advisories

Five geographic areas have released updated fuels and fire behavior advisories: Northwest, Northern Rockies, Rocky Mountain, Western Great Basin, and northern California.

Fuels and fire behavior advisories

Wildfire potential

The Predictive Services section at the National Interagency Fire Center has issued their National Wildland Fire Potential Outlook for October, 2012 through January, 2013. If it is correct, Minnesota, the northwest, and portions of California and Iowa will be active in October. After that, it’s southern California.

Wildfire outlook, October, 2012

Wildfire outlook, November - January

Here is an excerpt from the NIFC report:

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Significant Fire Potential

  • For October above normal significant fire potential is predicted across the northwestern quarter of the U.S. including portions of Washington, Oregon, Idaho and California. Above normal significant fire potential also exists across portions of the upper Midwest. The mountains and foothills of central and Southern California will also experience above normal significant fire potential. Portions of the Hawaiian Islands continue to see elevated significant fire potential as well.
  • The southeastern U.S. will continue to see periodic precipitation events and reduced significant fire potential.
  • The rest of the country will have normal significant fire potential.
  • As the fall leaf drop season develops the potential exists for a return to above normal significant fire potential across portions of the Appalachian Mountains.
  • Also during mid-October through early November Southern California will likely experience periodic off shore flow events leading to elevated significant fire potential.

 

Wildfire potential, September through December, 2012

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The Predictive Services section at the National Interagency Fire Center has issued their National Wildland Fire Potential Outlook for September through December, 2012. If it is correct, the wildfire season across portions of the northern plains, Rockies, and California will be active through the month of September, at least.

Here is an excerpt from their analysis:

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Significant Fire Potential

  • For September above normal significant fire potential is predicted for a band of the western U.S. stretching from central and northern California, through the northern Great Basin and into the Northern Rockies and north central U.S. The mountains and foothills of central and Southern California will also experience above normal significant fire potential. Portions of the Hawaiian Islands continue to see elevated significant fire potential as well.
  • The far southeastern U.S. will continue to see periodic precipitation events and reduced significant fire potential.
  • The rest of the country will have normal significant fire potential.
  • As the fall leaf drop season develops the potential exists for a return to above normal significant fire potential across portions of the eastern U.S.
  • Also during the October through early November period Southern California will likely experience periodic off shore flow events leading to elevated significant fire potential.

Wildfire Outlook, September, 2012

Wildfire outlook, October - December, 2012

Wildfire potential, August through November, 2012

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The Predictive Services section at the National Interagency Fire Center has issued their National Wildland Fire Potential Outlook for August through November, 2012. If it is correct, some firefighters in portions of the west and in the center of the country could be busy over the next few months.

Fire potential outlook August, 2012

Wildfire potential September-November, 2012

From the NIFC report:

  • “For August above normal significant fire potential is expected across most of the interior mountains and foothills of Southern California; the Sierras; much of Nevada; southeastern Oregon; much of southern Idaho; northwestern Utah; northeastern New Mexico; northwestern Colorado; much of Wyoming, southern Montana and a small area of the western Dakotas. Conditions will improve to normal after August in New Mexico, Colorado, and Wyoming. Additionally, above normal significant fire potential will develop across portions of Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Michigan, Kentucky, Tennessee, Mississippi, Louisiana, Arkansas, Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, and Nebraska, as well as western portions of many of the Hawaiian Islands.
  • Significant fire potential will be below normal in the western and northern portions of the Pacific Northwest, as well as along the Gulf Coast and Alaska.
  • The rest of the country will have normal significant fire potential.”

Wildfire potential, June through September, 2012

The Predictive Services section at the National Interagency Fire Center has issued their National Wildland Significant Fire Potential Outlook for June through September, 2012. If it is correct, firefighters in portions of Nevada, California, Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado, Wyoming, Minnesota, Michigan, Hawaii, Oregon, Idaho, and Utah could be busier than usual.

Wildfire outlook, June, 2012

Wildfire outlook, July-September, 2012

Significant Fire Potential

  • Above Normal Significant Fire Potential is expected across most of the interior mountains and foothills of Southern California; the Sierras; much of northwestern and northern Nevada; southeastern Oregon; southwestern Idaho; much of eastern and northern Utah; south central and southwestern Wyoming; western Colorado; most of northwest, central and southeastern Arizona; western New Mexico; northwestern Minnesota; northern Michigan; and the west half of the Big Island of Hawaii.
  • Significant Fire Potential will be or decrease to below normal this summer along the East coast from North Carolina to central Florida.
  • The rest of the country will have normal significant fire potential.

Wildfire potential, May through August, 2012

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The Predictive Services section at the National Interagency Fire Center has issued their National Wildland Significant Fire Potential Outlook for May through August, 2012. If it is correct, June through August looks close to average for most of the United States, except for above normal potential for parts of the southwest and Colorado, Utah, Nevada, Hawaii, and California.

Wildfire outlook, May, 2012

Wildfire outlook, June-Aug, 2012

Significant Fire Potential

  • Above Normal Significant Fire Potential is expected across most of the interior mountains and foothills of Southern California; the Sierras; much of northwestern and northern Nevada; southeastern Oregon; southwestern Idaho; the northern and central mountains of Utah; south central Wyoming; western Colorado; most of northwest, central and southeastern Arizona; western New Mexico; northern Minnesota; northern Wisconsin; northern Michigan; most of Florida; and extreme southern Georgia and southeastern South Carolina.
  • Significant Fire Potential will decrease to below normal this summer along the East coast from North Carolina to central Florida.
  • Below Normal Significant Fire Potential is expected for southern Alaska; Louisiana; southeastern Texas; southern Arkansas; southeastern Mississippi; far southwestern Alabama; and the western portion of the Florida Panhandle.
  • The rest of the country will have normal significant fire potential.