It’s been 40 years since the United States’ western region has experienced this low of snowpack near winter’s end, setting the stage for what many fear will be an early and extreme peak wildfire season.
Much of the mountainous West is experiencing a snow drought due to drier-than-normal and warmer-than-normal winter weather, according to the United States Department of Agriculture’s National Water and Climate Center. Recent heavy precipitation in the western states did little to reduce the deficit, as large amounts of snow fell in areas that were either not experiencing drought or were already far behind their usual snowpack levels.
“Below-average snow-water equivalency remains a concern in much of the West, even in drought-free areas such as the Sierra Nevada,” the Center said in its most recent weekly report. “According to the California Department of Water Resources, the Sierra Nevada snowpack contained an average snow-water equivalency of 16 inches—up about 6 inches from earlier in the month, but less than three-quarters of normal for late February. In much of Arizona, New Mexico, and Oregon, snow-water equivalency values were less than 50 percent of normal.”
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The widespread snow drought increases the likelihood for extreme wildfires in numerous ways, according to Desert Research Institute Director Tim Brown. He and other fire weather experts expect much of the West to have significantly high wildland fire potential as we near the summer months.
“The snowpack can definitely drought-stress the vegetation from the reduced soil moisture,” Brown said during a water supply briefing for the National Integrated Drought Information System. “There may also be a feedback process where that drought stress also increases the atmospheric drying…that exacerbates what the fire outcome might look like.”
Listen to Brown’s presentation in the video below:
The only thing that could lessen the chance of extreme fires would be a “major switch” in circulation patterns that keeps things cool and moist, but there’s nothing in seasonal forecasts or weather models that would indicate that.
Not only does low snowpack worsen environmental conditions and increase the possibility of extreme fires, but it also limits the window to safely set prescribed burns during the spring.
“If the underlying conditions are much drier than usual, and then it’s also warm on top of that…that’s going to reduce the amount of prescribed fire activity and then that, in turn, could also increase the fire potential as we get more into the summer season,” Brown said.
Recent research backs up officials’ claims of wildfire severity being tied to low snowpack. A study out of the University of Toronto published in December found that longer snow-free durations increase the severity of extreme wildfires, with earlier snow disappearance correlating to increased wildfire ignitions and longer fire seasons, specifically in boreal forests.
“Although the consequences of climate change on snow cover have not been a major focus of wildfire research, our work highlights the importance of incorporating snow cover dynamics into future models of wildfire burn severity,” the researchers said. “Improved understanding of how snow dynamics affect burn severity will help inform resource allocation (e.g., funding, monitoring, personnel), fuel reduction, and forest management strategies to reduce the risk of high-severity wildfire and maintain forest ecosystem health and function.”
1 Comment
i live in california, i have been fighting fire for 40 yrs and CALFIRE has the same speech every year and they seem to not help the public prevent fires. the money is more important them homes and property.