Fire potential will increase in the Southwest in March and April
Fire Potential January through April, 2021. Larger versions of these images are below.
The National Significant Wildland Fire Potential Outlook issued January 1 by the Predictive Services section at the National Interagency Fire Center predicts wildfire potential will be higher than normal in the Southern Plains February through April, 2021. This will include portions of Texas, New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Kansas. Most of the southwest one-quarter of the United States is currently experiencing severe, extreme, or exceptional drought.
The data from NIFC shown here represents the cumulative forecasts of the ten Geographic Area Predictive Services Units and the National Predictive Services Unit.
Below:
An excerpt from the NIFC narrative report for the next several months;
More of NIFC’s monthly graphical outlooks;
NOAA’s three-month temperature and precipitation forecasts;
Drought Monitor;
Keetch-Byram Drought Index.
“La Niña will continue to significantly affect the weather and climate patterns through winter and into spring. Drought conditions are expected to continue for much of California, the Great Basin, and the Southwest through winter into spring with drying expected to increase across portions of the Plains and Southeast. Recent cool and wet weather in the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic along with climate outlooks suggest normal to below normal significant fire potential is likely for large portions of the Southeast, Appalachians, and Mid-Atlantic. However, an early and active start to the fire season is expected for the southern High Plains during late winter.
“Given the background drought and anticipated warmer and drier than normal conditions across the Southwest and southern Plains, significant fire potential is forecast to be above normal during the spring. Lower elevations in the Southwest are favored to have above normal significant fire potential beginning in March and April. Oklahoma, eastern New Mexico, and most of Texas are forecast to have an active spring fire season before green-up in March and April and possibly beginning as early as February. Above normal significant fire potential is also likely to extend north into southern Kansas and southeast Colorado in March and April.”
Have you ever wondered what goes on behind the scenes as meals are being prepared by the catering services that provide food for firefighters on large wildland fires?
A journalist from the southern United States drove to Oregon in 2019 to embed with one of the 16 companies that run 29 federally contracted mobile food-service units specializing in fire-camp cuisine. He was hoping to get an inside look at what it was like to work at fire camp.
Jeff Winkler had previous experience working in “slop joints, shopping-center fusion, hippie shacks, and fine dining.” His current occupation, according to The Atlantic which published his long-form article about his adventure, is working as a trash collector back in the South.
During his 19 days feeding firefighters on the South Fire west of Red Bluff in Northern California, Mr. Winkler started in “freight” unloading deliveries from the Sysco semi that dropped off supplies, churning out hundreds of sack lunches assembly-line-style in the semi reefer, deep cleaning, and odd jobs. He described it as “soul-suckingly monotonous”, but after two days he moved up to the kitchen to work for Ruby, the head cook. On his 18th day he found himself in the head cook position.
Here are some excerpts:
Ruby and her second-in-command, Josie, a petite collegiate blonde not a day over 22, were scrambling. For Josie, it was literal. She was quietly pouring bags of yellow liquid egg into a tilt skillet and stirring the soup into a solid using a three-foot-long stainless-steel paddle.
Tilt Skillet
The ovens, I was told, were on the fritz, so Ruby had me drop bacon into the deep fryers.
It didn’t take me long to understand that we were cooking stomach anchors, not taste-bud tinglers. Instead of foie gras and bordelaise, our crew made large batches of heavy sustenance: things such as well-done chicken, powdered potatoes, instant gravy. Canned veggies were heated and dressed in brown sugar and spices. The liquid for Josie’s scrambled eggs came in 20-pound bags, and deep-frying bacon was an hour-long process. This was high-volume catering. The situation, and the contract, demanded it.
The Overhead Boomers were always the first to eat. Their impatience when waiting for us to open for service is a running joke among disaster catering crews. They also ate like picky children: “Nah, I don’t want no vegetables.” Almost all of the young bright-eyed Cs [California Conservation Corps] accepted their plates and ate like college freshmen. We got to know who the vegetarians were, and had their plates ready in advance.
Before the day-13 dinner rush, we’d made the steaks and shipped them out to spike camp but, for whatever reason, had forgotten to package up an entire batch. I found the deep-sixed pan of cooked steaks cooling in one of the fritzed ovens just a little after dinner service had started.
In order to deal with an increasing number of wildfires that were starting along Interstate 84 southeast of Boise, Idaho the Bureau of Land Management worked with local cooperators to establish a fuel modification program along the highway.
Their first action, from 2007 to 2012, was to reduce the existing vegetation by mowing, constructing fuel breaks, and establishing perennial grasses to reduce invasive annuals in the right of way adjacent to the interstate. It is a small sample size but during this period there was little significant change in the annual acres burned, average fire size, or the number of fires.
During the next seven years, from 2013 to 2019, the treatment strategy also included reestablishment of the gravel apron along the edge of the pavement surface to a minimum of 12 feet. The implementation required years of adaptive management and hard work, but the effort is producing results: average fire size for the last seven years has been reduced 95 percent even though traffic flow increased by more than 30 percent.
The fire burned more than 6,600 acres in Southern California December 3, 2020
Bond Fire, screenshot from video by FirePhotoGirl.
@FirePhotoGirl shot some fascinating video as she was driving through the Bond Fire in Southern California December 3, 2020.
Here is how she described it:
These videos were shot near the intersection of Santiago Canyon & Silverado Canyon. There were a few times I had to stop and wait it out and let the fire do its thing and cross over before I could continue, but if you ever wonder what it’s like driving through it, I hope this gives you a great visual.
The Bond Fire in Southern California east of Irvine started December 3, 2020 and burned 6,686-acres. Officials reported that 31 structures were destroyed and $14.4 million had been spent on suppression as of December 12.
3-D map showing the perimeters of the Silverado and Bond Fires, looking west.
The fire burned more than 4,200 acres west of Fallbrook, California
Creek Fire on Camp Pendelton Marine Base, December 24, 2020. CAL FIRE image.
The Creek that started on the east side on Camp Pendleton in Southern California forced 7,000 people to evacuate on Christmas Eve. Pushed by north-northeast winds of 5 to 10 mph gusting at 15 to 25 mph the fire spread across the base burning more than 4,200 acres before firefighters were able to stop the spread Thursday evening.
The fire was reported on Camp Pendleton near the intersection of De Luz Road and Harris Trail shortly after 11 p.m. Wednesday. By 11 a.m. Thursday conditions had improved and the evacuation order was downgraded to a warning. Late in the afternoon showers helped firefighters slow the spread and at 5:30 Camp Pendleton announced that a fireline had been constructed around the blaze. The entirety of the fire was on the base.
Map showing the location where the Creek Fire started on Camp Pendleton. Map by Camp Pendleton.
There were no reports of any structures that burned. The 200 firefighters were assisted by four air tankers and three water-dropping helicopters.
During the first 14 hours the fire was burning, from 11 p.m. until 1 p.m., the relative humidity was 8 to 10 percent — very low for overnight conditions.
One of the aircraft used on the fire was a BAe-146 operated by Neptune Aviation. Two days before the fire started the company posted on Facebook saying the aircraft was on duty in Southern California during Christmas week, very late in the fire season.
Air Tanker 02 Drops on the Creek Fire on Camp Pendelton Marine Base, December 24, 2020. CAL FIRE image.
#CreekFire Scoop, Fly, Drop, Repeat. Make sure you look at the circle mirror for a unique perspective of the hose filling the 375-gallon belly of @SDSheriff ASTREA 10 hovering over Lake O’Neill at Camp Pendleton @MCIWPendletonCA. We will be helping with water drops until sunset. pic.twitter.com/bQZIAxYnoB
The legislation pushes, again, for the implementation of tracking system for fire resources, due by March 12, 2021
Washington, DC
Both houses of Congress passed a 5,600-page omnibus spending package Monday night to fund numerous programs that included the Departments of Agriculture and Interior along with COVID-19 relief. It the bill is signed by the President it will fund the agencies during the fiscal year that began October 1, 2020.
There are no major changes in the appropriations for wildland fire activities that employ approximately 15,000 forestry and range technicians whose primary duties are fighting wildfires. But there are some interesting issues that were highlighted, not in the text of the bill itself, but in the “explanatory statement” that elaborates on Congress’ oversight of the fire programs in the Forest Service, Bureau of Land Management, National Park Service, Fish and Wildlife Service, and Bureau of Indian Affairs.
Firefighting Technologies
Congress reminded the five agencies that the John D. Dingell, Jr. Natural Resources Management Act that passed overwhelmingly in both houses almost two years ago requires that by March 12, 2021 they develop and operate a tracking system to remotely locate the positions of fire resources. According to a press release by Senator Maria Cantwell at the time, by the 2021 fire season all firefighting crews – regardless of whether they are federal, state, or local – working on large wildfires will be equipped with GPS locators. By September 8, 2019 they were also supposed to develop plans for providing real-time maps of the location of fires.
Apparently worried that the five agencies may be dragging their feet in following the requirements in the bill (which became law), Congress very, very politely issued a reminder in the explanatory statement:
The Committee encourages increased investment in these technologies within the funds provided for Forest and Rangeland Research and for preparedness activities in Wildland Fire Management. The Committee encourages prioritizing the use of commercial, off-the-shelf solutions, including mobile MESH networking technology, that provide situational awareness and interoperable communications between federal, state, and local firefighting agencies.
Longer contracts for firefighting aircraft?
The explanatory statement has a surprisingly lengthy section that directs the Forest Service and the DOI to submit a report within 90 days that lays out the considerations of awarding 10-year contracts for aircraft available for wildland fire suppression activities. If the President signs the bill today, the report would be due March 22, 2021.
The Next Generation 3.0 contracts for five large air tankers announced in October are for only one year with the possibility of up to four more years at the discretion of the FS.
Fire Aviation has more details about the possibility of longer contracts.
Move the Forest Service Fire and Aviation section out of State and Private Forestry
More than half of the entire budget of the Forest Service goes to Fire and Aviation Management (FAM). But if you were trying to find FAM on the agency’s organization chart, it may take a while.
The first version of the appropriations bill introduced in the Senate required that FAM be moved out of State and Private Forestry and put in it’s own branch, with the Director of FAM becoming a Deputy Chief:
Commensurate with the modernized budget structure included in this Act, the Forest Service shall realign its Deputy Chief Areas to conform to the appropriations provided herein, including the creation of a Deputy Chief for Fire and Aviation to administer the Wildland Fire Management appropriation, within one year of enactment of this Act.
In November the National Association of State Foresters wrote a letter to the House and Senate appropriations leadership opposing the concept:
While we agree more must be done to minimize the threat of catastrophic wildfire, we are concerned that establishing a Deputy Chief for Fire and Aviation would divert valuable resources from land management activities that reduce the threat of wildfire, only to establish additional bureaucracy around wildfire suppression… Establishing a Deputy Chief for Fire and Aviation is tantamount to building a “fire agency” and therefore contrary to the intent of the “Wildfire Funding Fix,” which Congress passed to free up funding for more active forest management.
The final version of the bill that passed Monday night eased off on that requirement, suggesting the agency just think about it:
The Committees are interested in data and recommendations relating to any changes that could be made to improve the representation of Wildland Fire Management leadership under this structure and the potential creation of a new Deputy Chief for Fire and Aviation. The Committees recognize that wildland fire related activities touch every aspect of the agency and believe that providing the fire function with a senior leadership role at the Service will improve coordination and better represents the role fire plays in agency budgeting and decision making.
Last week before the new language became available Monday night I checked with some fire management folks, asking their thoughts about the requirement, at the time, of promoting FAM to be their own branch with a Deputy Chief for Fire and Aviation. Here are their responses, in some cases edited for brevity:
Tom Harbour, former Director of FAM for the Forest Service:
The language is controversial. Specific organizational language like this is not popular with any federal organization. Based on just budget, the FAM program has been “Deputy Chief eligible” for a couple decades, but more goes into significant organization change decisions than budget. Five different Chiefs (Bosworth, Kimball, Tidwell, Tooke, Christiansen) have had the budget facts in front of them and have decided NOT to make a change. The most obvious immediate question is what would happen with S&PF programs, and what happens with the important relationships with State Foresters?
Greg Greenhoe, former Deputy Director of Fire and Aviation Management for the Northern Region, USFS
I really don’t know enough about the issue to have an opinion. I can understand the concern of the State Foresters with Fire Management leaving State and Private. But even when I was still working I always thought it was strange that Fire was under State and Private. I can see that some folks would be concerned that the largest single budgeted function in the FS doesn’t have its own Deputy Chief.
Kelly Martin, former Fire Chief of Yosemite National Park, National Park Service
Due to the fact that the wildland fire budget for suppression and preparedness is an overwhelming part of the entire USFS budget, this new proposed Deputy Chief of Fire and Aviation Management (FAM) position reporting directly to the Chief of the USFS leads to better accountability between the Chief of the USFS and the Fire and Aviation program. Much needed modern reforms and developing a “National Fire Plan 2.0” will need to be closely linked between the Chief of the USFS and the Dep Chief of FAM. State and Private Forestry will continue to be an important part of the USFS overall program with or without the Fire Director working directly for the Deputy Chief of SPF.
