Australia is facing a watch and wait scenario for its summer bushfire season as the latest Bushfire Seasonal Outlook predicts a mild but warm spring before the main El Nino impacts are expected to appear later in the year.

El Nino is now firmly established and the Bureau of Meteorology is watching it continue to strengthen with a peak not expected until late Spring or early Summer. Meanwhile, Australian fire agencies are watching the severe northern hemisphere wildfire season and thinking about what it means for the southern hemisphere summer and the provision of mitigation and firefighting resources, both people and aircraft, some of which are currently in the US, Canada and Europe.

The Australian Seasonal Bushfire Outlook for Spring was released today at the AFAC26 by Intershutz conference in Melbourne. The Australasian Fire and Emergency Service Authorities Council (AFAC), the Bureau of Meteorology and the nation’s Fire Commissioners and Chiefs prepare the quarterly outlook to prepare resources and community messages tailored for each state.

The Spring outlook is important for the populous eastern and southern states as it leads into the main summer bushfire season. The next outlook, to be released late November, will have a clearer picture of what Australia will face this El Nino summer.

The Bureau is predicting below average rainfall and higher than average temperatures across most of eastern and southern Australia up to November. This will dry out many of the areas that have received good rainfall this year.

While the El Nino is important, it is not the only climate driver being watched. The Bureau’s Michael Logan, General Manager of National Production Service, said El Nino was one part of the picture.

“An El Nino event is underway, it is strengthening and it is going to be a very strong one. But that is not the only driver that influences the Australian climate.,” Logan said at the outlook launch.

“The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral but models are suggesting a positive IOD is underway, which also influences Australian rainfall. We also have very warm sea surface temperatures around much of our coastline. All of these will come into play as we go through Spring in terms of fire risk, and also potentially into summer as well.”

Fire authorities are predicting a heightened risk of fire across northern and southeastern New South Wales, south-east Queensland, northeastern Tasmania, parts of Western Australia (WA), South Australia and Victoria, and most visibly, large parts of the Northern Territory.

The current fire season in the Top End is expected to extend an extra month, into November, with a late wet season keeping the fire risk high. Central areas of the Northern Territory also face an elevated fire potential due to high fuel loads.

The strong 2025-2026 wet season produced a flourishing mass of greenery and an associated influx of animal and bird life that is now drawing in the tourists. But this will evolve into a dry mass of fuels as the NT moves into a hotter, drier period over the next few months.