Tag: potential

The Predictive Services section at the National Interagency Fire Center has issued their Wildland Fire Potential Outlook for October through January. The data represents the cumulative forecasts of the eleven Geographic Area Predictive Services Units and the National Predictive Services Unit.

If their predictions are accurate, southern California will have above normal wildfire activity through December, along with Minnesota in November, while the rest of the United States will have normal or below normal activity.

Here are the highlights from their outlook.

November

• Above normal fire potential continues across portions of central and southern California. Long  term drought and a potential for offshore winds will keep potential elevated through November.
• Most of Minnesota along with portions of Iowa and Wisconsin will have elevated fire potential for November. This is not expected to persist into December.
• Below normal fire potential will continue across the Gulf Coast states.

December

• Fire potential will continue to diminish in California, leaving coastal areas of southern California with above normal significant fire potential.
• Below normal fire potential will expand across most of the South and Mid-Atlantic regions.

January-February

• No areas of above normal fire potential are expected for this period.
• Below normal fire potential will continue across central and southern Texas, Florida, and southern Georgia.

The Predictive Services section at the National Interagency Fire Center has issued their Wildland Fire Potential Outlook for October through January. The data represents the cumulative forecasts of the eleven Geographic Area Predictive Services Units and the National Predictive Services Unit.

If their predictions are accurate, California will be the only area with above normal wildfire activity.

Here are the highlights from their outlook.

October

• Above normal fire potential continues across some portions of northern, central and southern California. Long term drought coupled with increasing potential for offshore winds will keep potential elevated through October.
• Below normal fire potential is expected for central Texas as well as the southern Atlantic Coast.
• Elsewhere normal fire potential is expected as many areas transition to out of season conditions for the winter.

November

• Above normal fire potential will be alleviated in the north, leaving central and southern California as the only areas with continuing threats from dry fuels coupled with offshore flow.
• Below normal fire potential will expand to include an area stretching from Texas to the Atlantic Coast.
• Most other areas are out of season during November.

December and January

• The last remaining areas of above normal potential in California will transition to normal during December, leaving only normal to below normal conditions.
• Below normal fire potential will continue from Texas to the Atlantic Coast.
• Most other areas are out of season December through January.

The Predictive Services section at the National Interagency Fire Center has issued their Wildland Fire Potential Outlook for September through December, 2014.

The data represents the cumulative forecasts of the eleven Geographic Area Predictive Services Units and the National Predictive Services Unit.

If their predictions are accurate, firefighters could be busy in Washington and Oregon through October, and busy in southern California into December. The fall fire season in the southeast looks like it will be normal or slower than normal.

September

• Above normal fire potential will remain across southwestern Oregon through September for lingering dryness and potential dry, east winds.
• Fire potential will remain elevated across portions of California. Continued dry fuels will couple with potential offshore winds.
• Below normal fire potential is expected to continue for some portions of the eastern U.S. and the Hawaiian Islands.

October

• Above normal fire potential will persist across California as fuels will remain dry and off shore flow season arrives in earnest. Northern and central California will return to normal potential by the end of the month.
• Below normal fire potential is expected to continue for some portions of the southern Plains, Florida, and Hawaii.

November and December

(Note: there was a technical problem in getting a good copy of the image below.)

• Above normal fire potential will persist across southern California as offshore flow potential continues. Expect a return to normal potential from north to south beginning in late November through December.
• Below normal fire potential is expected to continue for the Gulf and Southeast Coasts, and Hawaii.

The Predictive Services section at the National Interagency Fire Center has issued their Wildland Fire Potential Outlook for August through November, 2014.

The data represents the cumulative forecasts of the eleven Geographic Area Predictive Services Units and the National Predictive Services Unit. If their predictions are accurate, firefighters could be busy in Washington, Oregon, and California.

August

• Above normal fire potential will continue across much of the West Coast states. Southwestern Puerto Rico has been unusually dry this summer and has above normal fire potential.
• Fire potential will return to normal across portions of the Northern Rockies and Rocky Mountain Areas.
• Below normal fire potential is expected for western Oklahoma, western Texas, southeastern New Mexico and much of the coastal Southeast.

September

• Above normal fire potential will persist across the western states through September with fire potential returning to normal over eastern portions of Northern California and Northwest by late September.
• Below normal fire potential will continue over the southern Plains, the mid-Mississippi Valley and part of the Southeast. Hawaii will remain below normal potent.

October and November

• Above normal fire potential will remain over southern California through the fall while Northern California, Oregon and Washington return to normal, essentially ending their significant fire season.
• Below normal fire potential will continue across the southern U.S. and the mid-Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. Hawaii will also remain below normal.

The Predictive Services section at the National Interagency Fire Center has issued their Wildland Fire Potential Outlook for July through October, 2014. The data represents the cumulative forecasts of the eleven Geographic Area Predictive Services Units and the National Predictive Services Unit. If their predictions are correct, the wildfire season will be busier than usual in the states of California, Washington, Oregon, Idaho, Nevada, and Arizona.

July

• Above normal fire potential will persist over much of California, the Northwest and the Great Basin. Southern Arizona and southwestern New Mexico will return to normal in July.
• Below normal fire potential will continue for much of the south central and southeast U.S. Below normal potential will also become prevalent across portions of the Northern Rockies and Rocky Mountains.

August

• Above normal fire potential will continue over most of California, Nevada, Oregon, Washington and Idaho. Above normal conditions could possibly develop across the New England states and Four Corners area if short-term weather develops that would support fire outbreaks.
• Below normal fire potential will continue over northern Idaho, Montana and portions of Wyoming, Colorado and South Dakota. Portions of Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Tennessee, Louisiana and Mississippi will also continue to see below normal fire potential.

September through October

• Above normal fire potential will remain over Southern and Central California. Northern California, Oregon and Washington will return to normal during this period.
• Below normal fire potential will return across much of the Southeastern U.S. except for gulf coastal areas and most of the Coastal Atlantic states.

On June 1 the Predictive Services section at the National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC) issued their Wildland Fire Potential Outlook for June through September, 2014.

If the prediction is correct, the Rocky Mountains will get a pass this summer while the highest wildfire potential will be in:

• Alaska,
• the extreme western states of California, Oregon, Washington, Nevada, and Arizona,
• and later in the summer spreading to the upper Midwest and New England.

And we also have a prediction from the National Weather Service and the latest edition of the Drought Monitor.

From NIFC:

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“The May, June, and July through August 2014 significant wildland fire potential forecasts included in this outlook represent the cumulative forecasts of the eleven Geographic Area Predictive Services Units and the National Predictive Services Unit.

June

• Above normal fire potential will persist over much of California, southern Arizona, and southwestern New Mexico. Central Alaska and the southeast interior will also experience above normal fire potential. Portions of Northern California, Oregon and Nevada will increase to above normal fire potential as well.
• Below normal fire potential will continue for much of the eastern half of the U.S., with the notable exception of the Great Lakes, Northeast and south Atlantic states.

July
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The Predictive Services section at the National Interagency Fire Center has issued their Wildland Fire Potential Outlook for May through August, 2014.

And below that is the latest edition of the Drought Monitor, released today.

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“The May, June, and July through August 2014 significant wildland fire potential forecasts included in this outlook represent the cumulative forecasts of the eleven Geographic Area Predictive Services Units and the National Predictive Services Unit.

May
– Above normal fire potential will be over much of California, southern Arizona, and southwestern New Mexico. Must of southern Alaska will have above normal fire potential.
– Below normal fire potential will continue for most of the Ohio, Tennessee, and lower Mississippi Valleys, the central Gulf Coast; eastern Texas and eastern Oklahoma.

June
– Above normal fire potential will expand to include northern California, Nevada, and much of Oregon. Most of Alaska will continue to see above normal significant fire potential.
– Below normal fire potential will continue over the lower and mid-Mississippi, Tennessee and Ohio Valleys.

July through August
– Above normal fire potential will remain in most of California, northern Nevada, and central Oregon. Above normal fire potential will expand into eastern Oregon, southwestern Idaho, and the Great Lakes region.
– Southeastern Arizona, southwestern New Mexico and Alaska will return to normal fire potential.
– Below normal fire potential will cover most of the northern Rockies.”

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The Predictive Services section at the National Interagency Fire Center has issued their Wildland Fire Potential Outlook for April through July, 2014. The data represents the cumulative forecasts of the eleven Geographic Area Predictive Services Units and the National Predictive Services Unit. If their prediction is correct there will be increasing wildfire potential during the period in California, Arizona, New Mexico, and Oregon.

April – Above normal significant fire potential will continue over portions of southern California; the central Plains from southeastern Colorado to Iowa and northern Missouri; and southwestern and south central Alaska. – Below normal significant fire potential will develop over most of the Ohio, Tennessee, and lower Mississippi Valleys, the central Gulf Coast; eastern Texas and eastern Oklahoma. The Canadian border region from northern Minnesota to Maine will also have below normal fire potential.

May – Above normal significant fire potential will expand over portions of southern, central and northern California; and over most of western Alaska. – Above normal fire potential will increase in the Southwest and decrease over the central Plains. – Below normal fire potential will continue over the lower and mid-Mississippi, Tennessee and Ohio Valleys.

June through July – Above normal significant fire potential will expand over most of northern California, central Oregon and northwestern Nevada; over the far southern Gre

Yesterday the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center released their monthly drought outlook for April 30, 2014:

The latest Drought Monitor, released March 27, is below: