Prediction issued for this summer’s wildfire potential

July wildfire outlook weather fuels

The forecast for wildland fire potential issued July 1 by the National Interagency Fire Center predicts that in July it will increase to higher than “normal” this summer in Alaska, Texas, Northern California, and the eastern portions of Washington and Oregon. In August added to the list will be parts of Montana, the Black Hills, and the Northern Plains. Hawaii will be above normal for the next four months.

The fire potential text and maps from NIFC shown here represent the cumulative forecasts of the ten Geographic Area Predictive Services Units and the National Predictive Services Unit. Additional graphics are included from other sources.

Below:

  • Excerpts from the NIFC narrative report for the next four months;
  • Additional NIFC monthly graphical outlooks;
  • NOAA’s three-month temperature and precipitation forecasts;
  • Drought Monitor;
  • Keetch-Byram Drought Index;
  • Soil moisture.

“Most of the West, Plains, and Texas remain in drought, with areas of extreme to exceptional drought across the southwestern US. Drought developed across southwest Alaska and expanded or increased in severity across the Southeast and Hawai’i. Temperatures were above normal across the southern tier of the US and the Plains, with near to below normal temperatures across the northwestern US and the Northeast.

“Climate outlooks indicate below normal precipitation is likely across much of the Plains through the central Rockies into the Inland Pacific Northwest, with above normal temperatures likely across most of the contiguous US (CONUS) through summer. A robust North American Monsoon is expected to continue through July into August across the Southwest and portions of the broader Four Corners region. Alaska is likely to remain warm, with near normal precipitation likely through summer.

“Above normal significant fire potential is forecast for the southern Plains through October, spreading across Texas, the Lower to Mid-Mississippi, Missouri, and Ohio Valleys by fall. Much of the central and northern High Plains, including the Black Hills, are likely to have above normal potential through summer. The Southwest, southern Great Basin, and Colorado Rockies have returned to near normal potential.

“Southwest, south-central, and Interior Alaska will have above normal significant fire potential through August, although portions of southwest Alaska will likely return to near normal potential during August. Much of the Sierra and Coast Ranges in California will have above normal significant potential by August, continuing through September. Offshore wind prone areas in California will likely retain above normal potential in October as well. Along and east of the Cascades into much of the western and northern Great Basin is expected to have above normal potential this summer due to above normal fine fuel loading and long-term drought, with southwest Oregon likely to have increasing potential by August. Leeward sides of the Hawai’ian Islands will have above normal potential through October due to ongoing drought and likely enhanced trade winds.”


August wildfire outlook weather fuels September wildfire outlook weather fuels October wildfire outlook weather fuels

90-day temp & precip outlook Drought Monitor, June 28, 2022 KBDI June 30, 2022 Soil moisture, June 30, 2022

Increasing wildfire potential predicted for Northern California and Plains over next four months

Fire potential outlook, June, 2022

The forecast for wildland fire potential issued June 1 by the National Interagency Fire Center predicts that the potential for wildfires will increase to higher than “normal” this summer in Northern California, the Plains states, and Northern Rockies.

The U.S. Drought Monitor reported May 24 that in California “snow cover is virtually non-existent below 8,000 feet; peak flow through area rivers and inflow into the reservoirs has already occurred or will occur soon, weeks ahead of normal; and applications for grants for well drilling, purchasing tanks, and bottled water recipients are increasing.” According to its most recent weekly report, 76 percent of land in the western United States is in severe drought or worse, up from 72 percent at the same time last year.

NOAA reported that the period from January to April was the driest on record in California. The Southwest region, which includes Arizona, New Mexico, Utah, and Colorado, experienced its driest period on record from May 2020 to April 2022.

The fire potential text and maps from NIFC shown here represent the cumulative forecasts of the ten Geographic Area Predictive Services Units and the National Predictive Services Unit. Additional graphics are included from other sources.

Below:

  • Excerpts from the NIFC narrative report for the next four months;
  • Additional NIFC monthly graphical outlooks;
  • NOAA’s three-month temperature and precipitation forecasts;
  • Drought Monitor;
  • Keetch-Byram Drought Index;
  • Soil moisture.

“Most of the West, Plains, and Texas remain in drought, with areas of drought in the Southeast and Hawai’i. Temperatures were above normal across the Southwest, Texas, and east of the Mississippi River, with below normal temperatures across much of the northern Intermountain West. Little snow remains across California and the southern Rockies, but snowpack in Washington and the northern Rockies is above normal for the end of May due to cool, moist storms thus far this spring.

“Climate outlooks indicate below normal precipitation is likely across much of the Plains through the central Rockies to the Northwest, with above normal temperatures likely across most of the contiguous US (CONUS) through summer. Critically windy and dry periods are likely to continue through mid-June for the Southwest and southern Great Basin. The North American Monsoon is likely to arrive on time and be robust this summer, but potential early moisture surges during June could result in periods of lightning across the Southwest, Colorado, and the southern Great Basin.

“Above normal significant fire potential is forecast for the southern High Plains through September, spreading across much of the Plains by August into September. Drier than normal conditions forecast in summer may lead to above normal potential developing across the western Mid to Upper Mississippi Valley in July and August.

“Most of the Southwest, southern Great Basin, and southern Colorado is forecast to have above normal significant fire potential in June, before returning to normal in July. Above normal significant fire potential is forecast across northern California and the lee sides of the Hawai’ian Islands through September, with above normal potential spreading into the southern Sierra and Coast Ranges of southern California in August and September. Above normal potential for central Oregon in June will expand across most of the Northwest by August, with above normal potential remaining in the Cascades and western Oregon in September. Central and eastern Montana east of the Continental Divide and much of Wyoming are forecast to have above normal potential July through September as well. Portions of southern and eastern Idaho are also forecast to increase to above normal potential in August and September.”


Fire potential outlook, July, 2022 Fire potential outlook, August, 2022 Fire potential outlook, September 2022

Continue reading “Increasing wildfire potential predicted for Northern California and Plains over next four months”

July and August wildfire danger predicted to be elevated in Great Plains, Rocky Mountains, and the Northwest

Wildfire potential May, 2022

The forecast for wildland fire potential issued May 1 by the National Interagency Fire Center predicts that in July and August the wildland fire potential will be above normal in the Great Plains, Rocky Mountains, and the Northwest. Until then, in May and June it will be above average in the Southwest, Northern California, Central Oregon, and the Central and Southern Plains. Hawaii will be above normal for the entire May through August period, and Alaska will be in the normal range except in May when the central part of the state will be below normal. Most of the eastern half of the country is expected to be in the normal range through August.

The fire potential text and maps from NIFC shown here represents the cumulative forecasts of the ten Geographic Area Predictive Services Units and the National Predictive Services Unit. Additional graphics are included from other sources.

Below:

  • Excerpts from the NIFC narrative report for the next four months;
  • Additional NIFC monthly graphical outlooks;
  • NOAA’s three-month temperature and precipitation forecasts;
  • Drought Monitor;
  • Keetch-Byram Drought Index;
  • Soil moisture.

“Most of the West, Plains, and Texas remain in drought, with areas of drought also along the Gulf Coast and South Florida. Temperatures were above normal across the Southwest into Texas with below normal temperatures across much of the northern US. Below normal precipitation continued in the Southwest into the central and southern Plains. Snowpack continued to rapidly melt in the Southwest, with the below normal snowpack in the Northwest and Rockies melting off at a slow rate.

“Climate outlooks indicate below normal precipitation is likely across much of the Plains west through the central Rockies to the Northwest, with above normal temperatures likely across much of the contiguous US (CONUS) through spring into summer. Critically windy and dry periods are likely to continue through June for the Southwest and central and southern High Plains with an active severe weather pattern to the east over the eastern Plains and Ohio Valley. The North American Monsoon is likely to arrive on time and be robust this summer, but potential early moisture surges during June could result in periods of lightning across the Southwest, Colorado, and the southern Great Basin.

“Above normal significant fire potential is forecast across the western Florida peninsula in May. The southern High Plains will retain above normal significant fire potential through August, with much of the Plains forecast to have above normal potential by July and spread into the western Mid-Mississippi Valley in August after green-up and subsequent curing occurs due to anticipated warmer and drier than normal conditions.

“Most of the Southwest is forecast to have above normal significant fire potential in May and June, with potential increasing across southern and western Colorado and southern portions of the Great Basin before returning to normal in July. Above normal potential will likely expand from central Oregon to southwest Oregon and central Washington by July and much of the Northwest in August. Above normal significant fire potential is also forecast to increase across northern California from May into July, with rising potential likely along portions of the Sierra Front. Alaska is forecast to have below normal potential across the Interior in May, returning to normal in June. Leeward locations of Hawaii are forecast to have above normal potential during June and July.”


Wildfire potential June, 2022 Wildfire potential July, 2022 Wildfire potential August, 2022.

Three-month precipitation and temperature outlook, May through July, 2022
Three-month precipitation and temperature outlook, May through July, 2022. Created April 21, 2022.

Continue reading “July and August wildfire danger predicted to be elevated in Great Plains, Rocky Mountains, and the Northwest”

Higher than average wildfire activity expected in Southern Plains and Southwest, April through June

Prediction released for April through July

wildfire potential April 2022

The forecast for wildland fire potential issued April 1 by the National Interagency Fire Center predicts that over the next three months the potential will be higher than average in the Southern Plains and the southwestern states.

While large sections of Oregon, Washington, and Northern California are expected to be busier for firefighters than average May through July, average conditions are in the forecast for Central and Southern California during the next four months.

The data from NIFC shown here represents the cumulative forecasts of the ten Geographic Area Predictive Services Units and the National Predictive Services Unit.

Below:

  • Excerpts from the NIFC narrative report for the next four months;
  • Additional NIFC monthly graphical outlooks;
  • NOAA’s three-month temperature and precipitation forecasts;
  • Drought Monitor;
  • Keetch-Byram Drought Index;
  • Soil moisture.

“Most of the West, Plains, and Texas remain in drought, with areas of drought also along the Gulf Coast, in South Florida, and in the eastern Carolinas. Most basins in the West are reporting below average snow water equivalent (SWE), but Alaska has above normal snowpack and snow cover.

Climate outlooks indicate likely below normal precipitation from Texas through the southern Rockies and Great Basin, with above normal temperatures likely across much of the contiguous US (CONUS) through spring into summer. Indications for an active severe weather pattern this spring remain from eastern portions of the Plains into the Southeast and Ohio Valley, and critically dry and windy periods will accompany the severe weather for much of the Plains, especially the southern and central High Plains. The North American Monsoon is likely to arrive on time, but potential early moisture surges during June could result in lightning across the Southwest, Colorado, and the southern Great Basin.

“Above normal significant fire potential is forecast across the eastern Carolinas for April and in South Florida through May. The southern High Plains will retain above normal significant fire potential into July, with much of the Plains forecast to have above normal potential by July after green-up and subsequent curing occurs due to anticipated warmer and drier than normal conditions.

“Most of the Southwest is forecast to have above normal significant fire potential in May and June, with potential increasing across southern and western Colorado and southern portions of the Great Basin. Above normal potential will likely expand from central Oregon to southwest Oregon and central Washington by July. Above normal significant fire potential is also forecast to increase across northern California from May into July, with rising potential likely along portions of the Sierra Front. Alaska is forecast to have below normal potential in its panhandle through April, with below normal potential expected across large portions of the Interior through May. Leeward locations of Hawaii are forecast to have above normal potential during June and July.”


wildfire potential May 2022

Continue reading “Higher than average wildfire activity expected in Southern Plains and Southwest, April through June”

Wildfire potential will be above normal for southern and central plains in March

Expected to move west over the following 3 months

wildfire potential March 2022

The forecast for wildland fire potential issued March 1 by the National Interagency Fire Center predicts that in March the potential for wildfires will be higher than average in Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, and the central and southern plains.

The data from NIFC shown here represents the cumulative forecasts of the ten Geographic Area Predictive Services Units and the National Predictive Services Unit.

Below:

  • Excerpts from the NIFC narrative report for the next four months;
  • Additional NIFC monthly graphical outlooks;
  • NOAA’s three-month temperature and precipitation forecasts;
  • Drought Monitor;
  • Keetch-Byram Drought Index;
  • Soil moisture.

“Most of the West, Plains, and Texas remain in drought, with abnormally dry conditions now across Florida and continuing in portions of the Carolinas.

“Climate outlooks through spring indicate areas receiving below normal precipitation will likely expand generally south to north across the West, with below normal temperatures likely continuing across the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies. Much of the Great Lakes and Northeast are forecast to have above normal precipitation through spring, with near to above normal temperatures across the central and eastern US. Additionally, there are indications for an active severe weather pattern this spring from eastern portions of the Plains into the Southeast and Ohio Valley. Critically dry and windy periods will accompany the severe weather for much of the Plains, especially the southern and central High Plains.

“Above normal significant fire potential is forecast to expand across Florida, Georgia, and the Carolinas during March and April, with lingering above normal potential forecast to remain in Florida during May. Much of the central and southern Plains are expected to have above normal significant fire potential into April, while persisting on the High Plains and eastern slopes of the Front Range into June. Above normal potential is forecast in portions of south Texas and the Hill Country during March, with the westward retreat of above normal potential in Oklahoma, Kansas, and Texas following the expected green-up procession.

Most of the Southwest is forecast to have above normal significant fire potential in May and June, with potential increasing across southern and western Colorado and southern portions of the Great Basin. Central Oregon is likely to have above normal significant fire potential in May and June, with above normal potential forecast across much of coastal California by June. Alaska is forecast to have below normal potential in its panhandle through April, with below normal potential expected across large portions of the Interior in April and May.


wildfire potential April 2022

wildfire potential May 2022

wildfire potential June 2022

Temperature & precipitation outlook, 1 and 3 month
Temperature & precipitation outlook, 1 and 3 month. Feb. 28, 2022.

Continue reading “Wildfire potential will be above normal for southern and central plains in March”

Wildfire potential, February through May

wildfire potential outlook February

The forecast for wildland fire potential issued February 1 by the National Interagency Fire Center predicts that for the next four months the potential for wildfires will be higher than average at times in the Carolinas, Georgia, Florida, parts of New Mexico and Arizona, and the central and southern plains.

The data from NIFC shown here represents the cumulative forecasts of the ten Geographic Area Predictive Services Units and the National Predictive Services Unit.

Below:

  • An excerpt from the NIFC narrative report for the next four months;
  • Additional NIFC monthly graphical outlooks;
  • NOAA’s three-month temperature and precipitation forecasts;
  • Drought Monitor;
  • Keetch-Byram Drought Index.

“Nearly 90% of the West remains in drought, with most of the Plains and Texas also in drought. Most of Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley saw an expansion or exacerbation of drought as well. Much of the West had a dry January, but snowpack is mostly 75% to 125% of average. Above average precipitation across the Carolinas and Virginia reduced drought and fire potential concerns, while most of the Plains and Great Lakes observed below average precipitation.

“Climate outlooks through spring indicate near to below normal temperatures and near to above normal precipitation are likely across the northern half of the West into the western Great Lakes. Above normal precipitation is also likely across the Mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valleys and through much of the Great Lakes and Northeast into the Mid-Atlantic. However, drier than normal conditions are expected for the southern half of the West, southern and central Plains, and portions of the Southeast, with near to above normal temperatures likely as well across these areas. Guidance also indicates this could be a potentially busy severe weather season east of the Plains, which usually portends to periods of critical fire weather conditions on the Plains behind the severe weather.

“Above normal significant fire potential is forecast for much of the central and southern Plains through March while persisting on the High Plains and eastern slopes of the Front Range through April into May. Above normal potential is forecast in portions of south Texas and the Hill Country during February then spreading across far southwest Texas, much of New Mexico, and southern Arizona by May. The westward retreat of above normal significant fire potential in Oklahoma, Kansas, and Texas is following the expected green-up procession.

“Due to the recent widespread and in places, heavy precipitation across the Carolinas and Virginia, forecast above normal significant fire potential was removed in February. However, above normal significant fire potential is forecast in portions of the Florida Peninsular into southeast Georgia in February and likely persisting through the spring. Additionally, above normal potential is likely to expand across Florida and into the Carolinas during March and April. Lingering above normal potential is forecast to remain across Florida in May. Areas of south and east Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley will continue to be monitored for above normal potential.”

wildfire potential outlook March wildfire potential outlook April wildfire potential outlook May

Three-month temp and precip outlook
Three-month temperature and precipitation outlook

Drought Monitor, Jan. 25, 2022 KBDI Jan. 31, 2022