Tag: weather

Fire weather outlook, August 14 through 17, 2014

Upper level low centered over OR/WA will continue to weaken over the next few days, before finally drifting northeast into Canada by the weekend. Conditions should gradually improve as thunderstorms become less numerous across the Pacific northwest on Thurs and even less on Fri. Moisture has become abundant around the low and with that, storm modes are expected to be mainly wet. Warm and dry conditions, with an isolated dry thunderstorm threat is possible Thurs across central MT. As the system drifts northeast across portions of MT on Fri, heavy rains are possible across E MT. Other scattered storms across the state are possible through Sat with mainly wet storm modes expected. No widespread critical fire conditions expected.

High pressure is already building into portions of CA, in the wake of the low. Dry, hot, but calm conditions have developed across much of CA and will continue to build north and eastward into OR/WA/NV/ID into the weekend. Temperatures will be above average for much of the western US Sat and Sun and into early next week. Some isolated pockets of breezy conditions are possible in central ID and MT, however, no widespread wind events are expected.

Long term, another upper level low makes an attempt to push onshore to OR/CA early next week. Not overly confident of any widespread thunderstorm activity at this time, though a few storms over higher terrain of north CA Mon and Tues are possible. There are hints at a larger pattern change for mid-week next week which will need to be watched for a possible wind event.

Weather Highlights:

MT: A few dry thunderstorms across portions of central MT Thurs with hot and dry conditions present. Heavy rain possible across eastern MT on Fri, otherwise scattered storms across much of the state. Warming and drying out Sun.

CA: Above average temperatures with dry conditions.

OR: Some showers and wet thunderstorms Thurs. A few lingering showers/storms north on Fri. Drying gradually from south to north, with increasing temperatures.

ID/WA: Scattered showers and wet thunderstorms through Sat, gradually waning and drying out from south to north through the period. Localized breezy conditions Sat/Sun.

WY: Becoming very warm Sat/Sun with breezy conditions.

Chip

Chip Redmond weather

Fire weather outlook, August 10 through 15

Today meteorologist Chip Redmond sent us another fire weather outlook, for August 10 through 15.

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Upper level ridging across the western US has returned, resulting in warming temperatures and much less thunderstorm activity. Most fire activity has been limited to portions of OR/WA where breezy westerly winds have became prevalent along the Columbia Gorge and western slopes of the Cascades. Though these localized conditions are expected to wane, widespread critical fire weather conditions are expected to develop across the region late weekend and continue through much of next week.

A slow moving upper level low will develop on the west coast of CA/OR by Sunday evening. As it progress towards the coast, upper level moisture will begin pushing northward across much of the western US. This increase in moisture aloft and subsequent instability, will contribute to the development of afternoon thunderstorms. Surface moisture will remain minimal however, providing the ideal ingredients for dry thunderstorms. With very dry, drought-stricken surface fuels, widespread fire starts are possible. Though no widespread winds are forecasted, gusty winds can be expected around any thunderstorm activity.

The nearly stationary upper-level low will make this a prolonged event, with thunderstorm activity through the entire period. Storms will become prevalent in OR/CA on Sunday, and expanding north into WA on Monday/Tuesday, and eastward into ID/MT on Tuesday and Wednesday. By mid-week, enough upper level moisture may advect northward into CA/OR/ID/WA for some wet thunderstorms, however, dry thunderstorms will still be possible across much of the region. As the low shifts eastward by late-week, a break in the activity is expected across portions of OR/CA. However, warm and dry weather is expected to continue.

Weather Highlights:

OR/northern CA/southern ID: Critical fire weather through Wednesday. Daily dry thunderstorms with hot and dry surface conditions expected. Isolated wet thunderstorms by Tues/Wed.

WA: Critical fire weather Monday through Wednesday. Very hot across central portions of the state and with critically low RH Sun through Tues. Dry thunderstorms likely Mon and Tues with a few wet thunderstorms Wed.

Northern ID/western MT: Critical fire weather Monday through Wednesday. Hot and dry Mon and Tues with scattered dry thunderstorms. Increased chances of wet thunderstorms with slightly cooler temperatures Wed.

Chip

Chip Redmond weather

August fire weather, typically, and this year

Today we have another article from Incident Meteorologist Chip Redmond.

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2014 August fire weather

Typical fire season for August is focused greatly on the western US and Pacific NW. This time of year a summer upper level ridge is usually prevalent across the western US. This leads to hot and dry conditions reaching into Canada. However, monsoonal rains creep northward into much of the inter-mountain west from Mexico bringing a break to fire season in much of Colorado, Arizona, California, Utah and other nearby states. These monsoonal rains are the wet season for many, and besides the winter snows, are a large source of water.

August fires — Monthly Fire Occurrence Density in August. From Predictive Services (1999-2010 data).

In the recent weeks, we have seen quite a bit of large fire activity in Washington, Oregon, and California. For this time of the year, it is fairly typical to expect hot spots in these regions. However, the size and vigor of these fires has been greatly magnified with already a record fire season (Carlton Complex). The main driver of these impressive fires has been the significant drought impacting the western US, which has been developing over the previous years. Despite some recent rains in many areas, especially inter-mountain West (thanks to seasonal monsoonal moisture), much of it has fallen to the east of the greatest Exceptional Drought. This drought has substantial impacts on both short and long term vegetation and fuel conditions. It has made the region very susceptible to very large fires with extreme fire behavior.

The big question is, will these conditions continue? Long-term it appears that they will. This persistent pattern is showing signs of weakening short term, but after this weekend, forecast models hint at more prolonged ridging much like we have had the previous weeks. A very active Western Pacific typhoon season is somewhat to blame. As systems move north, and eventually northeast past Japan, they amplify the large upper level ridge assisting in the continued hot and dry weather for the western US. With numerous typhoons still across the western Pacific, it appears this may continue to occur. Long-term models also suggest continued below normal rainfall and above normal temperatures for the next 1-3 months for the W US. There is some suggestion of El Nino development this fall which could bring some much needed relief to portions of southern California. However, should it develop, it would also suggest warmer than normal conditions across regions of Washington and Oregon.

It appears that it likely be a very long, and dragged out fire season for many in WA, OR, and CA.

Chip Redmond weather

Fire weather outlook, August 5-10

Today we are beginning what could be a recurring feature on Wildfire Today. Chip Redmond, a qualified Incident Meteorologist, has written a fire weather outlook for August 5 through 10. Tomorrow we will have his description of what is considered typical fire weather in the month of August, along with a general outlook for the rest of this month.

Here is a short bio for Chris, and below that is his forecast.

Chip Redmond has studied meteorology extensively, obtaining both a Bachelors and Masters degree in Atmospheric Science. His knowledge of weather was then combined with wildland fire in 2012 through a wildfire meteorology course, where he obtained a passion for the specialized niche. Since then, he has served as an IMET with the state of South Dakota, working on the fire line and with an incident management team. From these experiences, he believes that nothing is more beneficial than making a forecast, and subsequently watching your forecast either verify or completely blow while working on the fire line. Current endeavors have taken him to Kansas, where he works with the state climate office and state-wide weather station network. During this phase in his career, he remains thoroughly embedded in fire weather forecasting and hopes to combine these experiences in the future.

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August 5 – 10 Fire Weather Discussion

Extreme fire weather conditions have been somewhat hampered due to abundant moisture streaming northward across much of the western US. This has helped relieve some large fires that have developed, especially across CA/OR. Improving conditions are linked to the lack of dry thunderstorm activity, and increased moisture across the region. The large upper level ridge that has dominated the weather for the western US lately has been modified due to an impinging upper level low centered over California/Great Basin. This upper level low will slowly transition southward through the end of the week. Chances of wet thunderstorms will exit eastward across the Rockies and into the central Plains, with some lingering across northern CA into south ID into the weekend. With no upper level forcing, chances of thunderstorms will be restricted to terrain flows near high peaks, and no widespread lightning episodes expected.

Winds will be generally light across the western US with no significant events expected the next 4-5 days. However, some areas of localized influences on the western slopes of the Cascades in OR/WA may see combinations of westerly winds 15-20mph and RHs below 15%-borderline Red Flag conditions. A shortwave will push southeast into the Pacific Northwest over the weekend increasing thunderstorm chances possibly both dry and wet. Despite these chances, drought conditions expected to persist with below normal rainfall and above normal temperatures the next 7 days. Heat and dry conditions are expected to re-amplify early next week as the persistent pattern attempts to build back into the region.

Weather highlights for Wednesday through Sunday:

CA: Persistent higher elevation showers/thunderstorms across north and east CA through Saturday. Drying out south with heat returning.

OR/WA: Persistent breezy westerly winds and dry conditions Wed, Thurs, & Fri will create near Red Flag conditions across western slopes of Cascades and central OR/WA. Dry through the week with scattered wet/dry thunderstorms Saturday.

ID/WY/MT: Periods of wet thunderstorms especially across east ID, south MT, and WY.

Chip

Chris Redmond weather

Wildfire potential, August through November

The Predictive Services section at the National Interagency Fire Center has issued their Wildland Fire Potential Outlook for August through November, 2014.

The data represents the cumulative forecasts of the eleven Geographic Area Predictive Services Units and the National Predictive Services Unit. If their predictions are accurate, firefighters could be busy in Washington, Oregon, and California.

August

Above normal fire potential will continue across much of the West Coast states. Southwestern Puerto Rico has been unusually dry this summer and has above normal fire potential.
Fire potential will return to normal across portions of the Northern Rockies and Rocky Mountain Areas.
Below normal fire potential is expected for western Oklahoma, western Texas, southeastern New Mexico and much of the coastal Southeast.

September

Above normal fire potential will persist across the western states through September with fire potential returning to normal over eastern portions of Northern California and Northwest by late September.
Below normal fire potential will continue over the southern Plains, the mid-Mississippi Valley and part of the Southeast. Hawaii will remain below normal potent.

October and November

Above normal fire potential will remain over southern California through the fall while Northern California, Oregon and Washington return to normal, essentially ending their significant fire season.
Below normal fire potential will continue across the southern U.S. and the mid-Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. Hawaii will also remain below normal.

potential weather

High temperatures forecast for the West through August 13

Temperatures higher than normal are in the forecast through August 13 for Alaska, Washington, Oregon, California, and parts of Idaho, Montana, Nevada, and Arizona. If ignitions occur, firefighters could be busy in the far west for the next couple of weeks, while those farther east will see temperatures cooler than normal.

August 1 through 5:

Temperature outlook, Aug 1-5 — August 1 through 5.

August 7 through 13:

Temperature outlook, Aug 7-13 — August 7 through 13.

Thanks and a hat tip go out to Jim.

weather

Wildfire potential, July through October, 2014

The Predictive Services section at the National Interagency Fire Center has issued their Wildland Fire Potential Outlook for July through October, 2014. The data represents the cumulative forecasts of the eleven Geographic Area Predictive Services Units and the National Predictive Services Unit. If their predictions are correct, the wildfire season will be busier than usual in the states of California, Washington, Oregon, Idaho, Nevada, and Arizona.

July

Above normal fire potential will persist over much of California, the Northwest and the Great Basin. Southern Arizona and southwestern New Mexico will return to normal in July.
Below normal fire potential will continue for much of the south central and southeast U.S. Below normal potential will also become prevalent across portions of the Northern Rockies and Rocky Mountains.

August

Above normal fire potential will continue over most of California, Nevada, Oregon, Washington and Idaho. Above normal conditions could possibly develop across the New England states and Four Corners area if short-term weather develops that would support fire outbreaks.
Below normal fire potential will continue over northern Idaho, Montana and portions of Wyoming, Colorado and South Dakota. Portions of Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Tennessee, Louisiana and Mississippi will also continue to see below normal fire potential.

September through October

Above normal fire potential will remain over Southern and Central California. Northern California, Oregon and Washington will return to normal during this period.
Below normal fire potential will return across much of the Southeastern U.S. except for gulf coastal areas and most of the Coastal Atlantic states.

potential weather

Drought summary

Very dry conditions are expected to continue all summer on the west coast, the southwest, and in Texas.

The map below shows the probabilities that temperatures will be above or below normal in July.

weather

Red Flag Warnings, June 2, 2014 — and, controlling the weather

Warnings for elevated wildfire danger have been issued by the National Weather Service for areas in Nevada, Utah, Arizona, New Mexico, and Colorado.

We continue to be amazed at how weather and fire danger can respect and adhere to state boundaries. The Joint Fire Science Program should investigate this phenomenon. Maybe additional imaginary lines could be put on maps on an as-needed basis that would control the weather to protect our firefighters, forests, and communities. Could we even reverse droughts and prevent floods?

The Red Flag Warning map was current as of 11:23 a.m. MDT on Monday. Red Flag Warnings can change throughout the day as the National Weather Service offices around the country update and revise their forecasts. For the most current data, visit this NWS site.

red flag borders Red Flag Warning weather

Wildfire potential, June through September

On June 1 the Predictive Services section at the National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC) issued their Wildland Fire Potential Outlook for June through September, 2014.

If the prediction is correct, the Rocky Mountains will get a pass this summer while the highest wildfire potential will be in:

Alaska,
the extreme western states of California, Oregon, Washington, Nevada, and Arizona,
and later in the summer spreading to the upper Midwest and New England.

And we also have a prediction from the National Weather Service and the latest edition of the Drought Monitor.

From NIFC:

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“The May, June, and July through August 2014 significant wildland fire potential forecasts included in this outlook represent the cumulative forecasts of the eleven Geographic Area Predictive Services Units and the National Predictive Services Unit.

June

Above normal fire potential will persist over much of California, southern Arizona, and southwestern New Mexico. Central Alaska and the southeast interior will also experience above normal fire potential. Portions of Northern California, Oregon and Nevada will increase to above normal fire potential as well.
Below normal fire potential will continue for much of the eastern half of the U.S., with the notable exception of the Great Lakes, Northeast and south Atlantic states.

July
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potential weather