There is very little fire history in front of the Caldor Fire

Fire history in vicinity Caldor Fire
Fire history in vicinity of the Caldor Fire, 2000 through August 23, 2021.

In order for the spread of the 117,000-acre Caldor Fire to stop or to be suppressed by firefighters, something will have to change — either the weather or the fuel.

If the relative humidity stayed above 40 percent and the wind speed was less than five mph, it might lose enough intensity to allow firefighters on the ground and in the air to take direct action on the flanks. But there is no sign of that happening this week.

To see all articles on Wildfire Today about the Caldor Fire, including the most recent, click HERE.

Let’s look at the fuel, which is the primary driver of this fire.

From the Incident Management Team:.

There is a heavy dead and down component with drought-stressed fuels. Live fuels are cured to levels normally seen in late September, and fuels are extremely receptive to spotting. Fuel moistures are historically low. Northern California remains under a Fuels and Fire Behavior Advisory. ERC’s are above the 97th percentile. 100 hr and 1000hr fuels are below [3 percent fuel moisture].

The predominant direction of spread has been to the northeast or east-northeast. If it continues in that direction for the next 10 miles it will not encounter the footprints of any fires that have burned in the last 21 years large enough to have a significant effect on the spread. Just beyond that distance on the north side of Highway 50 is the 2007 Angora Fire southwest of South Lake Tahoe.

North of Highway 50 four miles northeast of the location of the fire Monday night there is a large rocky area several miles across with sparse fuel. It is north of Twin Bridges and west of Fallen Leaf and could slow the fire in that location, but there’s no guarantee that it can’t find a way to burn around, through, or over it. Spot fires have been igniting a mile out in front; one was 1.8 miles.

Hazardous fuel treatments Caldor Fire
Hazardous fuel treatments in vicinity of the Caldor Fire, 2000-2021.

Another fuel-related factor to consider is the fuel treatments that have been accomplished over the years, shown in green on the map above. The Caldor Fire has already burned across dozens, and it will be interesting to find out if they had the intended effect. There has been a great deal of fuels work in the South Lake Tahoe area.

A reduction in the volume of vegetation resulting from a fuels project in most cases is not expected to stop a high-intensity wildland fire. At best in those areas the fire may spread more slowly and perhaps throw out fewer burning embers.

But by far the best protection for structures is make them as fire resistant as possible, including the envelope of the structure itself — the roof, vents, siding, doors, windows, foundation, fences, eaves, and decks. A FEMA publication (13 MB) has excellent detailed recommendations. And in the Home Ignition Zone the NFPA and FireWise programs recommend reducing flammable material within 100 feet of structures and spacing the crowns of trees at least 18 feet apart that are within 30 feet of the home, 12 feet apart at 30 to 60 feet, and 6 feet apart at 60 to 100 feet. Another house that is 15 to 50 feet away is also fuel, and if it ignites will be a serious threat.

The LA Times (subscription) published an excellent article August 21 about rethinking forest management — the effects of logging and prescribed fire, and learning to live with fire.

French Fire near Isabella Lake grows to 13,000 acres

1:28 p.m. PDT August 23, 2021

French Fire map 8 p.m. PDT August 22, 2021
Map of the French Fire. The black line was the perimeter determined by a fixed wind mapping flight at 8 p.m. PDT August 22, 2021. The red dots represent heat detected by a satellite at 3:51 a.m. PDT August 23, 2021. The dark red areas had intense heat during the mapping flight. Green indicates Sequoia National Forest.

From the French Fire Incident Management Team at about 10:30 a.m. Monday:

“On Sunday, Aug. 22, fire crews constructed a handline near Wagy Flat Road (Forest Road No. 25S02) to hold the fire and connect into a previous controlled line. Crews were also successful continuing handline from the Sawmill Road break to the division break that is one mile south of Wagy Flat.

“Today [Monday] crews will continue to mop up in those areas and pay close attention to the structures off the Sawmill Road. Further west, towards Rancheria Road (Forest Road No. 25S15), there was some fire growth and fire crews successfully used dozers and hand crews to catch the smaller spot fire that slopped over onto Borderline Road. Crews will work towards Rancheria Road constructing direct line with a strong probability they can get up to Rancheria Road within the upcoming days.”


12:03 p.m. PDT August 22, 2021

French Fire map
French Fire map. The black line was the perimeter determined by a fixed wing mapping flight at 8:32 p.m. PDT August 21, 2021. The red dots represent heat detected by a satellite at 2:32 a.m. PDT August 22, 2021. The dark red areas had intense heat during the mapping flight.

On Saturday the French Fire west of Isabella Lake in Southern California exhibited group torching of trees and long-range spotting, but the activity slowed during the night. The blaze has burned 13,341 acres.

For Sunday firefighters are concerned about the spot fire west of Alta Sierra which is a threat for the residences in that area.

Additional spread is possible with upslope runs and long range spotting to the east.

To see all articles on Wildfire Today about the French Fire, including the most recent, click HERE.

The weather forecast for Sunday calls for 2 to 6 mph winds out of the northwest, 77 degrees, and 40 percent relative humidity. Slightly stronger winds are expected on Monday with lower humidity.

Crews have confirmed that eight residences have been destroyed.

Evacuations are still in effect. The county has developed a map showing the areas affected.

Dixie Fire grows to 678,000 acres near Susanville, California

 Updated at 8:20 p.m. PDT Aug. 19, 2021

At 7 p.m. local time CAL FIRE released an update on the Dixie Fire. The acreage figure was about 22,000 higher than the number from 12 hours earlier, and now stands at 699,666 acres.

At least 659 residences have been documented as destroyed and 137 commercial buildings.

(To see all articles on Wildfire Today about the Dixie Fire, including the most recent, click HERE.)

The fire is being managed by two Incident Management Teams, one on the west side and the other on the east side. In CAL FIRE’s twice daily updates the “Current Situation” section is broken down into the West and East Zones. After closely reading them for a week, it became obvious that they are written by two different people with different views on what information should be included. Below are their updates from today at 7 p.m. These are typical:

“Dixie Fire West Zone: Firefighters continue to build and bolster containment lines on the Dixie Fire. Fire remained active under northeast winds, with spotting and torching contributing to fire growth. Smoke from other fires nearby did limit activity in some places, but not enough to prevent additional growth. Fuel moistures are historically low which is contributing to the critical fire behavior. There are many considerations before allowing an area to be repopulated. A methodical, multi-pronged process of inspection and evaluation must be conducted to ensure the health, safety and welfare of all the residents affected. This process includes guaranteeing roads are safe for travel and basic utilities to infrastructure is secured. Damage assessment is ongoing, and the number of damaged and destroyed structures may change as teams are able to access the fire area safely. Please see below for information affecting your area.”

“Dixie Fire East Zone: West Zone and East Zone crews, equipment, and aircraft have maintained aggressive engagement on the portion of the fire near Janesville. Along Honey Lake, the northern edge near fruit grower’s road has remained in its current footprint due to the continued northeasterly winds. Fire line was constructed on the south end from Highway 395 to the Walker fire scar. In an additional priority area, rotary aircraft supported crews in the Genesee Valley this morning when they were able to fly. After aerial retardant application, the spot fire remains at approximately the same footprint of 30 to 40 acres and firefighters are constructing and reinforcing contingency lines to the south. The fire on the north side of Beckwourth Genesee Road is currently backing down the middle slopes and crews continue to construct lines to mitigate impacts to structures in the Genesee Valley.”

Below is the map showing the boundary between the two zones, revised August 16.

Dixie Fire, new East and West Zones

Next, is the satellite photo showing smoke from fires in Washington, Oregon, and California.

Satellite photo, Western Fires at 6:26 p.m. PDT Aug 19, 2021
Satellite photo, Western Fires at 6:26 p.m. PDT Aug 19, 2021.

10:46 a.m. PDT August 19, 2021

Dixie Fire map, northwest area
Dixie Fire map, northwest area. The red areas represent heat detected by a satellite at 3:26 a.m. PDT August 19, 2021. The white line was the perimeter at 8:55 p.m. August 18, 2021. The brown areas had extreme heat when the fire was mapped Wednesday evening.

The spot fire that started five miles east of the Dixie Fire near Highway 395 has grown to about 20,000 acres. It crossed the highway in at least two places but firefighters were able to limit the spread east of the roadway. Approximately five miles of the eastern side of the fire is now alongside Highway 395 west of Honey Lake between Janesville and Milford.

The blaze is still very active in Wilcox Valley and on the west side of the 2019 Walker Fire.

Thursday morning the Incident Management Team reported that the fire had burned 678,000 acres.

Dixie Fire map, northeast area
Dixie Fire map, northeast area. The red areas represent heat detected by a satellite at 3:26 a.m. PDT August 19, 2021. The white line was the perimeter at 8:55 p.m. August 18, 2021. The brown areas had extreme heat when the fire was mapped Wednesday evening.

Westwood has still been spared. Seven miles east of the community the fire has approached Highway 36 but has not grown east past the 2016 Willard Fire. It is six miles west of Susanville.

The northwest area remains very active and continues to march through Lassen Volcanic National Park. I estimate that about 40 percent of the 106,452-acre park has has burned.

The slopover south of Highway 36 east of Mill Creek was very active Wednesday and has burned approximately 2,000 acres. This is 13 air miles west of Chester.

The weather forecast predicts dry, breezy conditions for the next several days. Friday afternoon through Sunday should bring strong winds out of the southwest.