Can the fires of 1910 occur again?

An article by Angela Marshall at KPAX.com wonders if the Big Burn of 1910 could occur again. Here is a brief excerpt from the article:

…But, the question many of us want answered today is, will a fire in magnitude and destruction to that of the 1910 forest fire happen again?”

“Weather wise, we see these dry Cold Fronts pretty regularly. An example is the Sundance Fire of 1967 on September 1st. A dry Cold Front hit that fire and it burned 50,000 acres in one afternoon,” [National Weather Service Science Operations Officer Chris] Gibson pointed out.

“Oh! I certainly believe that. Well, I’ll go out on a limb and say it’s probably far more likely now because we have so much more fuel,” [University of Montana Ecosystem and Conservations Sciences Chairman Ronal] Wakimoto told us.

Even with the advanced weather forecasting tools and modern firefighting technology, Wakimoto stresses we still can’t control the weather, or the severity of the winds, as we experienced on August 20th of 1910.

“If an Incident Commander were told if he or she were told they would have to try and fight some of those fires, we would probably have in the plans how many body bags they would expect because they would really kill people under those conditions. And, we killed what 78 or so firefighters as it was. But, we know better than to get in front of those big fires.”

Thanks Dick

USFS retirees question agency findings about Station Fire

About two dozen retirees from the U. S. Forest Service are calling for an additional investigation of last summer’s Station fire on the Angeles National Forest in southern California–the fire that burned 160,000 acres and killed two LA County firefighters.  The report that was released by the USFS in November was written by a five-member panel; three of the five members of the panel represented the USFS and LA County fire department, both responsible for the management of the fire or heavily involved as a cooperator, and both were the targets of criticism from the media and some members of the public. That report included no criticism of the management of the fire during its first 46 hours, and said that “appropriate decisions” were made.

A report written by the LA County Fire Department, released five days after the USFS report was released, was critical of some aspects of USFS management of wildland fires on the Angeles National Forest.

One issue that appeared in the media about the Station fire was that the number of ground and air resources assigned to the fire on the second day was not adequate, and this contributed to the fire becoming the largest in the recorded history of LA County.

An article in the LA Times has numerous quotes from USFS retirees about the management of the Station fire and the need for an independent investigation. Here are some excerpts–you might recognize some of the names:

“I didn’t think that conclusion was even close to being correct,” said Larry Boggs, a former fire management officer who worked for the Forest Service for 31 years, 13 of them in the Angeles. “It was a whitewash. Aircraft would have been quite effective on the fire that day.” [Referring to the USFS report’s conclusion that “appropriate decisions” were made about the resources assigned on the second day, and that steep terrain was the primary obstacle to stopping the spread of the fire during the first two days.]

“This is the most highly protected watershed anywhere, certainly in the United States,” Troy Kurth, a former fire prevention officer for the California region, said of the Angeles. “What were the factors that led to this fire’s escape? . . . I just can’t come to the same conclusions as the Forest Service did.”

The retirees began a behind-the-scenes lobbying campaign for a rigorous review in October, making their case through e-mail exchanges, telephone calls and meetings with Forest Service administrators, said Derr, who wrote several letters to the agency asking for the fuller investigation. Even after those requests were rejected, Derr said, he and other retirees were reluctant to go public because of an enduring loyalty to the Forest Service.

“An independent, comprehensive inquiry is essential to gather all the facts so that future fires can be safely and more effectively fought,” he added. “The November report was incomplete and flawed.”

Doug Leisz, the former associate chief of the Forest Service, was less harsh but said the report “missed some things.”

“I would still go back and talk to all the people who were involved,” he said. “I wouldn’t say, ‘Who screwed up?’ I’d say, ‘How could we do it better next time?’ ”

Mike Rogers, the former supervisor of the Angeles, said informal attempts to persuade Forest Service officials to take a fresh look at the Station fire were “kind of blown off.”

Rogers said some Angeles employees are afraid their careers would suffer if they criticize their superiors, “so there needs to be some kind of review where people’s anonymity is protected.

A Station fire commander had ordered the air tankers to be over the flames at 7 a.m.; they did not begin arriving until around 9 a.m., according to the records. During that two-hour interval, the fire grew exponentially, jumped a crucial defense line along Angeles Crest Highway and started to rage of control.

Don Feser, who retired as Angeles fire chief in 2007, said, “If their pilots couldn’t meet that timeframe, why didn’t the commanders do something about it?”

Feser said lingering questions about the aircraft could be cleared up only through another, wider inquiry: “It all comes down to interviewing the right people and getting the total story out.”

North Carolina panel recommends eliminating 20 of 38 wildfire aircraft

A watchdog group of the North Carolina General Assembly, the Program Evaluation Division, has recommended that the Division of Forest Resources eliminate 20 of the 38 aircraft that they use for the management of wildland and prescribed fires. The report also recommends that of the other 34 aircraft owned by the state, that 5 of them be eliminated.

Here are the recommendations about the fire-related aircraft from the 89-page report, which also covers the management of other state-owned aircraft.

Function Currently Eliminate Remaining
Fire Control (3 single-engine fixed wing, and 3 Bell UH1H helicopters) 6 2 4
Fire Patrol (single-engine fixed wing) 18 11 7
Suppression (air tankers, 1 CL215 & 4 SEATs) 5 1 4
Suppression/Rx burn 2 1 1
Transport 3 1 2
Salvage/parts 4 4 0
TOTALS 38 20 18

The Canadair CL215 air tanker has been grounded since 2008 because it needs a 5,000-hour inspection that is expected to cost $1 million. The Forest Resources staff expects that the inspection would reveal repairs that would cost an additional $500,000 to $1,000,000. The agency does not have the money for the inspection and repairs, or a pilot for the aircraft.

The other four air tankers are Single Engine Air Tankers (SEATs). Three are Melex M18A’s, and one is a Rockwell S2R.

Dromader M18B SEAT
Melex M18B Dromader

The report says, about the Division of Forest Resources’ aviation program:

According to Division of Forest Resources staff, the division has the second largest aviation fleet for forest protection in the country. However, the state is ninth in acres of forest land and experienced fewer acres of forest fires over the last three years than 16 other states. Other states use their National Guard, private companies, and resources from other states arranged through interstate compacts to fight fires.

The Division of Forest Resources, in an official response to the report, said in part:

Nationally, North Carolina ranked third, fifth, and fourth in 2007, 2008, and 2009 respectively, for the most number of wildfires in a state…. The average fire size for the 3-year time period was the third best (meaning smallest) for states that had 3,000 or more fires for each of the three years.

A better measure of efficiency for a wildland fire fighting aviation fleet may be to look at cost per number of fires, cost per average fire size, cost per homes protected, etc.

Senate Majority leader Martin Nesbitt is not convinced that the recommendations in the report should be followed, saying:

Thank God we don’t have forest fires all the time, but it’s kind of like if you did a study of the efficiency of fire trucks you’d find out that they’re terribly inefficient.  They sit in the firehouse most of the time but they are there when you need them.

The Division of Forest Resources has commissioned a separate study of their fire aviation program which should be completed by Conklin and de Decker by August 1, 2010. The Division asks that the General Assembly not make any decisions about reducing their fleet until that second study is complete.

Hand crews and Blackhawk pilots train in South Dakota

National Guard helicopter pilots, inmate crews, and recruits for the Bear Mountain hand crew trained with live fire in Custer State Park in the Black Hills of South Dakota on Friday. The pilots were from Guard units in South Dakota and North Dakota while the inmates were from the Department of Corrections’ Rapid City Minimum Security Unit.

Here is an excerpt from the Rapid City Journal:

Friday was the first time on the fire line for 20 members of a Department of Corrections crew. They were joined by 10 Bear Mountain crew recruits who did fire training course work online but needed the day in the field, [public information officer Beth] Hermanson said.

“They’re learning how to read fire behavior,” Hermanson said.

State fire agency trainers spent a week in the classroom at the state’s Minimum Security Unit in Rapid City training the Department of Corrections firefighters. Crew members receive 40 hours of basic wildland training.

“They’ve spent the last two days in the classroom, and now, they’re out here on the fire, actually using the skills they learned in the classroom in a practical setting,” [South Dakota Wildland Fire Coordinator Joe] Lowe said.

The crews also learned to lay hoses and operate water pumps.

And they learned to work with air support provide by the Blackhawks. While crews trained on the ground, 21 helicopter pilots were training overhead. Ten North Dakota and 11 South Dakota National Guard pilots completed the training runs they need before they can respond to fires. Each pilot had to make three runs towing a bucket filled with 660 gallons of water. Pilots are required to make three drops — mid-slope, downhill and uphill. At the same time, they must coordinate those drops with an air boss circling the drop site. The pilots must also keep in contact with the crew working below them.

The aerial support is vital to fighting fires in the Black Hills, Lowe said. “The Black Hills burns.”

Each year, Gov. Mike Rounds gives Lowe the authority to activate National Guard helicopters for firefighting.

An interagency compact between the state, U.S. Forest Service and the National Park Service also gives the state the ability to handle most fires in a fire-prone area with homes in the forest, Lowe said.

“We’re a force to be reckoned with,” Lowe said.

Patent awarded for containerized air drop system

Caylym PCAD drop
Caylym photo (click to see larger version)

Caylym Technologies inexplicably continues to develop what they call a “precision container aerial delivery system” (PCAD) for suppressing wildfires. In fact, they recently issued a press release announcing that Canada issued a patent for their system, which involves shoving up to 14 containers of water or retardant, each weighing about 2,000 pounds, out the rear door of a C-130 aircraft. The 200 gallons of water are supposed to disperse from each of the paper containers, but in the photo above from their web site, it appears that at least one container seems to be hurtling toward the ground, possibly still full of liquid?  It’s hard to tell, and it is the only photo found on their web site that shows the containers after they leave the aircraft.

Since they are so proud of their system, it seems odd that they don’t have videos on their web site showing one of the drops in progress.

If there is any chance in hell that a full 2,000-pound container would impact the ground, there is no way a firefighter could be within 1/2 mile of the drop. And even if there is a 100% guarantee that the containers will all empty, how much damage could even an empty container weighing 100 pounds do to someone on the ground?  And then there’s the issue of finding and removing from remote locations the 14, 100-pound empty containers from each drop.

The company claims they could operate at night, primarily because the aircraft is equipped with GPS.

By utilizing modern aviation technology and GPS, these aircraft are capable of combating wildfires in mountainous terrain, at night, in very limited visibility. Think of the possibilities!

Yes. Just think. Please.

This becomes the latest addition to our lame-ass ideas category.

UPDATE July 23, 2010:

The system was recently tested at the Yuma Proving Grounds.

NTSB releases report on crash of Wisconsin DNR plane

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DNR plane crash

The National Transportation Safety Board has released the report on the fatal accident involving a Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources aircraft that crashed while it was monitoring a wildfire near Marshfield on April 8, 2009, killing the pilot, 36-year old Heath Van Handel.

The NTSB said the aircraft crashed because it stalled, failing to maintain an adequate air speed.

Here is an excerpt from an article in the Wisconsin Rapids Tribune:

“Heath (Van Handel) was the greatest guy,” said John Jorgensen, the DNR section chief for aeronautics, Van Handel’s supervisor. “He represented the future of DNR aeronautics.”

According to the report:

Van Handel left a Necedah airport at about 2:11 p.m. that day to observe and provide information to firefighters. They were battling a wildfire that authorities said started because of garbage burning on a property adjacent to a wooded area.

The Rock Fire Department deputy chief saw the plane circle high above the ground and then descend to an altitude of about 35 feet. He heard the engine get louder about five seconds before the left wing dropped, and the plane crashed.

A DNR representative told investigators pilots fly at an airspeed near the range that would cause the planes to stall. The pilots go more by feel than by the instruments.

Jorgensen said the comments were wrong, and he has been working to get them removed from the report. Pilots do not routinely fly that low or that slowly, Jorgensen said.

The department didn’t make any changes as a result of the crash, Jorgensen said. However, other pilots were reminded to keep a safe altitude and speed when spotting for fires.

Trent Marty, the DNR’s director of Bureau of Forest Protection, said DNR pilots have a low-altitude waiver from the Federal Aviation Administration. Pilots train to fly at the low altitudes and slower speeds needed when observing fires.